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In Bitcoin news today, Jan3 CEO Samson Mow declared on X on June 29, 2026, that the BTC bottom is definitely behind us. It is a claim that landed with BTC price hovering at approximately $59,900, down roughly -7% on the week, and spot Bitcoin ETF outflows on track for their worst month on record at nearly $4 billion in redemptions.
Mow’s thesis is structural, not sentimental: because Bitcoin reached an all-time high 37 days before the April 2024 halving, he argues the traditional four-year halving cycle has accelerated, and with it, the cycle bottom.
The open question the market must now resolve is whether that acceleration thesis holds, or whether the technical and on-chain evidence pointing toward $40,000–$55,000 downside targets is closer to the truth.
Bitcoin News Today: Mow’s Accelerated Cycle Thesis, What the 37-Day ATH Window Actually Reveals About Halving Dynamics
Mow’s argument rests on a single, verifiable anomaly in cycle analysis: in every prior halving cycle, Bitcoin’s all-time high arrived well after the supply-reduction event, not before it.
The April 2024 halving broke that pattern decisively, with BTC printing its pre-halving peak 37 days in advance. Mow’s transmission path runs as follows: anomalous peak timing → cycle compression → bottom already established → next bull phase beginning.
I find it incredibly interesting how some people are so certain that the bottom is coming in 4 months because “cycles.” But we had an ATH 37 days before the halving, so it would seem even if you believe in cycles you should reason out the cycles accelerated. The bottom is in.
— Samson Mow (@Excellion) June 28, 2026
Mow, the former chief strategy officer at Adam Back’s Blockstream and the architect of El Salvador’s Bitcoin strategy, is known for his $1 million BTC price prediction, a target he frames not as a ceiling but as an early waypoint. His internal models reportedly point toward a path approaching $1.33 million by 2026, a figure he argues represents the true bull phase that has not yet materialized.
In that framing, current price action near $60,000 is less a bottom confirmation and more a launchpad being mistaken for a crater.
The institutional dimension supports his thesis in part. The launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 introduced persistent buy-side flows that had no analog in prior cycles.
Multiple research desks have cautioned that historical post-halving drawdown templates may systematically understate support levels when institutional accumulation is a continuous structural force rather than a sporadic retail event. That context does not confirm Mow’s bottom call – but it does complicate the case for a deep retest along classical cycle lines.
Where Thielen, Hayes, and Van Straten Actually Disagree, and Why the Gap Is $15,000 Wide
The counterpoint to Mow is not a single view, it is a spread of named, quantified targets that collectively suggest the Bitcoin bottom has not yet been established.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, places the floor at $55,000, with the bottom window running from August to October 2026. His framework leans on macro timing and positioning cycle data rather than halving theory alone, making his call less dependent on the cycle acceleration debate Mow is waging.
Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, is the most bearish named voice in the current debate. Hayes predicts Bitcoin will bottom around $40,000 within the next six months, a call that implies roughly -33% additional downside from current levels.
His macro-skeptic framing treats BTC as a high-beta risk asset that remains exposed to broader financial conditions tightening, a view that aligns with commentary from gold advocate Peter Schiff, who has publicly dismissed bottom calls as wishful thinking given Bitcoin’s persistent correlation to speculative equity risk.
I anticipate another leg lower in Bitcoin between July 1 and July 10, with a move towards the realized price around 53k.
My bias is that Bitcoin will front run the "October bottom", just as it front ran the April 2024 halving.
The market consensus seems to be 40k October. 10…
— James Van Straten (@btcjvs) June 26, 2026
James Van Straten, CoinDesk’s senior analyst, flags the most structurally significant indicator: in every major bear market since 2011, Bitcoin has traded below its realized price before establishing a cycle bottom despite the current news today.
That threshold has not been breached in the current cycle. Van Straten stated that “with bitcoin testing its 200-week moving average, onchain data suggests the $50,000 to $54,000 range could become the next key battleground”, and that “so far, bitcoin has not fallen beneath this level in the current cycle,” leaving open the probability of further downside to complete the historical pattern.
The realized price floor and the 200-week moving average together define the zone where every prior cycle has found its absolute low.
