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Tom Lee, Chairman of digital asset treasury firm BitMine, believes the traditional four-year Bitcoin (BTC) cycle , long viewed as central to market timing , is beginning to break down.
Tom Lee: Bitcoin Cycle Is Lengthening, 50% Drawdowns Still Possible
In an Oct 24 interview with Anthony Pompliano, Bitmine chairman Tom Lee questioned whether the "four-year cycle" still holds. He argued that when "everyone" expects a peak early next year, that consensus is… pic.twitter.com/tAEm3v0X8H
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) November 2, 2025
Speaking in an interview with crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano, Lee said Bitcoin may now be entering a longer-term market cycle that reflects macro liquidity trends and institutional adoption more than halving events.
“The old model , where Bitcoin peaks 12 to 18 months after each halving, no longer explains the current market,” Lee said. “Price movements today are far more aligned with global liquidity and institutional flows than with Bitcoin’s internal supply schedule.”
ETFs Are Reshaping Bitcoin’s Market Structure
Lee pointed to the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs as a major factor extending Bitcoin’s cycle duration and altering its price dynamics.
“Liquidity, technology integration, and participant relationships have fundamentally changed,” he explained, noting that the market now reacts more to macroeconomic shifts than to block reward halvings.
Global liquidity conditions have improved since mid-2023, while increased U.S. policy support for digital assets has further strengthened institutional interest.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance and potential rate cuts have indirectly boosted demand for risk assets like Bitcoin, according to Lee.
Volatility Warnings Despite Bullish Outlook
While maintaining a long-term bullish view, Lee warned investors about Bitcoin’s continued volatility.
“A 50% correction is inevitable, even in a bull market,” he cautioned, adding that when the S&P 500 drops 20 points, Bitcoin could fall by 40.
He also noted that 25% corrections in the stock market are becoming more common , suggesting crypto investors should prepare for similar turbulence.
Despite this, Lee reiterated his earlier forecast that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2025, citing adoption by corporations such as MicroStrategy and the possibility of U.S. strategic reserves including Bitcoin as part of a diversified portfolio.
His view aligns with analysts like Raoul Pal of Real Vision, who also foresee a prolonged institutional-led uptrend.
The shift signals that traders can no longer rely solely on Bitcoin’s four-year halving rhythm. Instead, they must integrate macro indicators, liquidity data, and ETF inflows into their market strategies.
