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Benchmark Equity Research reaffirmed its “Buy” rating on Metaplanet Inc. on September 24, even though the Tokyo-based Bitcoin investment firm has seen its shares drop by 40% over the past month.
Strong outlook for @Metaplanet_JP. Benchmark Equity Research, maintaining its "Buy" w/price target of 2,400 ¥ for Metaplanet to reach by the end of 2026. Metaplanet closed trading yesterday at 533 ¥.
Right-elongated cycle theory is real!$BTC x $MTPLFhttps://t.co/hgdK7I4GX9
— Marco ₿attistoni (@Battistoshi93) September 25, 2025
The firm emphasized Metaplanet’s unique derivatives-driven strategy, which monetizes its Bitcoin (BTC) reserves and sets it apart from other crypto-related companies. While many firms rely solely on holding BTC, Metaplanet generates recurring revenue through derivatives built around its large reserve holdings.
Stock Diverges from Bitcoin’s Rally
Metaplanet has branded itself as a Bitcoin treasury company, holding substantial amounts of BTC as reserve assets. Yet, despite Bitcoin’s ongoing climb, Metaplanet’s stock has sharply underperformed.
On September 22, 2025, its OTC-listed shares (ticker: MTPLF) traded between $4.00 and $4.45, down about 40% since the start of the year. This divergence underscores investor skepticism even as BTC trades near record highs.
The company’s stock has been notoriously volatile, including a 14% single-day plunge in July 2025. Analysts say much of the downward pressure comes from valuation concerns, dilution from new share issuances, and waning investor confidence, all seen as company-specific rather than market-wide issues.
The Road to Recovery
Analysts stress that Metaplanet’s recovery depends on several factors:
- Bitcoin stability and a potential rise toward $125,000–$130,000
- Reduced equity dilution and greater transparency in financial planning
- Clear strategies for revenue diversification beyond Bitcoin
Benchmark’s optimistic stance rests on both Bitcoin’s long-term growth potential and Metaplanet’s ability to turn BTC holdings into recurring revenue through derivatives. However, sustained investor confidence will hinge on whether the company can demonstrate disciplined management and a broader growth roadmap.
