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Bitcoin price prediction has grown cautious after BTC slipped below $91,000 amid rising geopolitical tensions, macro uncertainty, and ETF-related pressure. As markets await more details on the U.S. plan for Venezuela, the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, and tariffs, traders remain on edge.
Reports around U.S. actions involving Venezuela have added volatility to global markets. U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced that Venezuela will supply between 30 and 50 million barrels of oil to the country.
The immediate effect will be bearish pressure on crude prices, but it can create a more favorable environment for high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies by easing inflation concerns and potentially leading to looser monetary policy.
However, the short-term pain is still visible in the broader crypto market. BTC is currently trading around $91,000, up 2.63% over the past week. While long-term structure remains intact, short-term momentum has weakened, putting key support zones under focus.
Macro & Geopolitical Risks Weighing on BTC
BTC erased some of last week’s gains amid high uncertainty around key macro policies, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions. Asian markets are also feeling the heat, adding to the pressure on Bitcoin price prediction. The major focus will be on the US nonfarm payrolls report and a possible Supreme Court ruling on President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
A key economic data point – US nonfarm payrolls data is about to be released on Friday this week, which is widely expected to influence Fed interest rates. Weaker jobs data would signal economic slowing and could increase expectations of a Fed rate cut later this year.
Fed rate cut probability. Source: FedWatchTool
On the geopolitical front, along with the awaited confirmation of the U.S.-Venezuela situation, the long-running diplomatic dispute between China and Japan intensified. Beijing has launched an anti-dumping investigation and export restrictions on Japan. This has weakened the “risk-on” sentiment required for digital assets to rally.
Macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are increasing downside risk for Bitcoin in the short term. Since the beginning of this week, the broader crypto market has tracked lower along with traditional assets. These crucial events are competing for market attention, keeping traders cautious and rangebound.
Institutional & On-Chain Context
Bitcoin institutional products are also experiencing intense pressure amid the current high volatility. After Bitcoin posted one of its worst Q4s since 2017, the pressure has shifted to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which could significantly impact Bitcoin price prediction. Bitcoin ETFs are adding short-term selling pressure, as December 2025 saw net outflows of over $1 billion.
This selling has continued into the new year as well. While the first two sessions in Bitcoin ETFs saw strong demand, recording $1.168 billion in inflows, the last three sessions saw an outflow of $1.12, leaving the total net flow slightly positive.
Source: Coinglass
ETF outflows force authorized participants to sell physical Bitcoin, directly increasing short-term downside pressure. This could directly impact downward price movements. However, the movement is not completely bearish, and inflows could stabilize in the coming weeks as the market conditions improve.
Can Bitcoin Price Prediction Hold Above $90,000 Support?
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is consolidating around the $90,000 support level after being rejected at the $94,000 swing high last week. The psychological support at $90,000 is being flirted with, but has been successfully reclaimed after a slight dip.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering just above the 50 level, signaling that buyers and sellers are fighting to take control. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has sustained bullish sentiments, printing green candles above the zero line.
Bitcoin Price Chart. Image Courtesy: TradingView
On Thursday’s dip, the 50-day moving average served as strong support for the price and will be a crucial level to watch in the coming days. Shorter moving averages of 10 and 20 days will also be crucial for maintaining momentum in Bitcoin’s price.
However, the major technical significance depends upon the $90,000 support level. If the current trend fails to sustain above this level, the next dance floor is down at $86,500, or if bear pressure intensifies, it could drop to $84,500, a major support level. For now, the momentum is neutral, with bulls trying to regain ground, while traders wait on the sidelines for a proper reversal cue.
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