{"id":8131,"date":"2026-02-05T09:23:05","date_gmt":"2026-02-05T09:23:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/zh\/?p=8131"},"modified":"2026-02-05T16:49:42","modified_gmt":"2026-02-05T16:49:42","slug":"bitcoin-70k-support-arthur-hayes-black-swan-whale-portfolio-shift","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/zh\/news\/bitcoin-70k-support-arthur-hayes-black-swan-whale-portfolio-shift\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6bd4\u7279\u5e017\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u5173\u53e3\u544a\u6025\uff1a\u62c6\u89e3Arthur Hayes \u300c\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u300d\u9884\u8a00\u4e0e\u5de8\u9cb8\u8c03\u4ed3\u771f\u76f8"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2026 \u5e74 2 \u6708 5 \u65e5\uff0c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u8fce\u6765\u4e86\u8165\u98ce\u8840\u96e8\u7684\u4e00\u5929\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/zh\/cryptocurrency\/bitcoin-price-prediction\/\" rel=\"\">\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\uff08BTC\uff09<\/a>\u5728\u77ed\u77ed\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u65f6\u6bb5\u5185\u66b4\u8dcc 8%\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u8fc5\u901f\u51fb\u7a7f 71,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5173\u952e\u652f\u6491\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e00\u5ea6\u903c\u8fd1 7 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u5927\u5173\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u6ce2\u9ad8\u8fbe 43% \u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\u56de\u64a4\uff08\u76f8\u8f83\u4e8e\u53bb\u5e74 12.6 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9ad8\u70b9\uff09\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8ba9\u591a\u5934\u54c0\u9e3f\u904d\u91ce\uff0c\u66f4\u8ba9 BitMEX \u5171\u540c\u521b\u529e\u4eba Arthur Hayes \u65e9\u524d\u7684\u300c\u795e\u9884\u8a00\u300d\u518d\u5ea6\u6210\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u7126\u70b9\u3002Hayes \u968f\u540e\u5728\u793e\u7fa4\u5e73\u53f0\u4e0a\u4ee5\u4e00\u5f20\u300c\u767d\u5929\u9e45\u300d\u7167\u7247\u53cd\u8bbd\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u52a8\u76ea\uff0c\u6697\u793a\u8fd9\u573a\u770b\u4f3c\u7a81\u53d1\u7684\u5d29\u76d8\uff0c\u5b9e\u5219\u662f\u4ed6\u9884\u544a\u5df2\u4e45\u7684\u300c\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u300d\u5267\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Maybe I should have looked for the black swan given the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">$BTC<\/a> moves today. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hgsl5OhyVc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/hgsl5OhyVc<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoHayes\/status\/2019293359773478978?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">February 5, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"_\">\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u8fde\u52a8\u4e0e\u69d3\u6746\u6e05\u6d17\uff1a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u8dcc\u843d\u60ac\u5d16\u7684\u5185\u5e55<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u672c\u8f6e<a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/zh\/news\/bitcoin-75000-support-level-layer-2-revolution-bitcoin-hyper\/\" rel=\"\">\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01<\/a>\u7684\u4e0b\u6740\u5e76\u975e\u5b64\u7acb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u968f\u7740\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u6307\u6570\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u60e8\u70c8\u7684\u4e24\u5929\u6e83\u8d25\uff0c\u52a0\u5bc6\u5e02\u573a\u4e0e\u7f8e\u80a1\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u518d\u6b21\u663e\u9732\u65e0\u9057\u3002\u5168\u7403\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u7684\u9707\u76ea\u5bfc\u81f4\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u8fc5\u901f\u67af\u7aed\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5931\u5b8871,000\u7f8e\u5143\u540e\u89e6\u53d1\u4e86\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u8fde\u9501\u6e05\u7b97\u3002\u636e\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c\u5355\u65e5\u8d85\u8fc7 7 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u591a\u5934\u69d3\u6746\u4ed3\u4f4d\u88ab\u5f3a\u884c\u5e73\u4ed3\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5982\u540c\u88ab\u5f3a\u884c\u6495\u5f00\u4e86\u4e00\u5c42\u91d1\u878d\u7ef7\u5e26\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u96ea\u4e0a\u52a0\u971c\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7f51\u8def\u56e0\u77ff\u5de5\u83b7\u5229\u7a7a\u95f4\u88ab\u6324\u538b\uff0c\u51fa\u73b0\u533a\u5757\u65f6\u95f4\u5ef6\u957f\u81f3 20 \u5206\u949f\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e0d\u4e39\u653f\u5e9c\u5411\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u8f6c\u79fb\u4ef7\u503c 2,200 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9 MicroStrategy \u6301\u4ed3\u6e05\u7b97\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u7591\u8651\uff0c\u90fd\u4e3a\u8fd9\u573a\u6050\u614c\u60c5\u7eea\u63a8\u6ce2\u52a9\u6f9c\u3002<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"arthur_hayes\">\u5de8\u9cb8\u7b56\u7565\u5927\u8f6c\u5411\uff1aArthur Hayes \u7684\u907f\u9669\u6362\u4ed3\u903b\u8f91<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4e00\u7247\u6050\u614c\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf\u300c\u806a\u660e\u94b1\u300d\u7684\u52a8\u5411\u663e\u5f97\u5c24\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u94fe\u4e0a\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0cArthur Hayes \u8fd1\u671f\u63a1\u53d6\u4e86\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u91cd\u914d\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u4ed6\u9646\u7eed\u5c06\u4ef7\u503c\u8fd1\u767e\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684 ENA \u4e0e PENDLE \u4ee3\u5e01\u8f6c\u79fb\u81f3\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\uff08\u901a\u5e38\u89c6\u4e3a\u5356\u51fa\u4fe1\u53f7\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u53cd\u624b\u79ef\u7d2f\u65b0\u5174\u8d44\u4ea7 HYPE\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u6301\u4ed3\u5df2\u8d85\u8fc7 500 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u64cd\u4f5c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u786e\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\uff1a\u5de8\u9cb8\u6b63\u5728\u89c4\u907f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u62e5\u6324\u4e14\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u53d7\u538b\u7684\u4f20\u7edf DeFi \u6807\u7684\uff0c\u8f6c\u5411\u5177\u5907\u66f4\u5f3a\u53d9\u4e8b\u7206\u53d1\u529b\u7684\u65b0\u5174\u534f\u8bae\u3002Hayes \u7684\u884c\u52a8\u903b\u8f91\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u5728\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u9707\u76ea\u7b51\u5e95\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d44\u91d1\u4f1a\u91cd\u65b0\u5bfb\u627e\u5177\u5907\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u589e\u957f\u6f5c\u529b\u7684\u907f\u98ce\u6e2f\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u575a\u5b88\u5df2\u53d7\u69d3\u6746\u6e05\u7b97\u91cd\u521b\u7684\u65e7\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"_7_25\">\u5e95\u90e8\u4f55\u5728\uff1f\u4ece 7 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u56de\u671b 25 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u4e4b\u8def<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u5118\u7ba1\u76ee\u524d FUD\uff08\u6050\u60e7\u3001\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u4e0e\u6000\u7591\uff09\u60c5\u7eea\u9707\u8033\u6b32\u804b\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u51fa\u73b0USDT\u77ed\u6682\u8131\u94a9\u7684\u6d41\u8a00\uff0c\u4f46\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u69d3\u6746\u6e05\u6d17\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u7b51\u5e95\u7684\u524d\u5146\u3002Arthur Hayes\u867d\u7136\u5728\u793e\u7fa4\u4e0a\u8c03\u4f83\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u7684\u964d\u4e34\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u59cb\u7ec8\u575a\u6301\u5176\u5b8f\u89c2\u5267\u672c\uff1a\u8fd9\u573a\u300c\u5c0f\u578b\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u300d\u6700\u7ec8\u5c06\u8feb\u4f7f\u5404\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u91cd\u542f\u5370\u949e\u673a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u65e6\u5168\u7403\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u91cd\u65b0\u6269\u5f20\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6297\u901a\u81a8\u7684\u9996\u9009\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u6709\u671b\u5728\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u51b2\u51fb 25 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7684 7 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u4fdd\u536b\u6218\u6216\u8bb8\u662f\u8fd9\u4e00\u8f6e\u725b\u5e02\u4e2d\u6700\u540e\u7684\u538b\u529b\u6d4b\u8bd5\u3002\u968f\u7740\u6316\u77ff\u96be\u5ea6\u9884\u8ba1\u4e0b\u8c03 14% \u4ee5\u7f13\u89e3\u77ff\u5de5\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u7684\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9\u2014\u2014\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u300c\u6b7b\u732b\u8df3\u300d\u8fd8\u662f\u300c\u9ec4\u91d1\u5751\u300d\uff0c\u7b54\u6848\u6216\u8bb8\u5c31\u85cf\u5728\u5de8\u9cb8\u4eec\u8f6c\u8eab\u5e03\u5c40\u7684\u8db3\u8ff9\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2026 \u5e74 2 \u6708 5 \u65e5\uff0c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":124,"featured_media":8132,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8131","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u6bd4\u7279\u5e017\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u5173\u53e3\u544a\u6025\uff1a\u62c6\u89e3Arthur Hayes \u300c\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u300d\u9884\u8a00\u4e0e\u5de8\u9cb8\u8c03\u4ed3\u771f\u76f8<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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