{"id":6879,"date":"2025-12-10T17:44:25","date_gmt":"2025-12-10T17:44:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/zh\/?p=6879"},"modified":"2025-12-10T17:45:49","modified_gmt":"2025-12-10T17:45:49","slug":"jpmorgan-predict-this-rate-cut-will-be-a-hawkish-one-as-a-possible-surprise-from-todays-meeting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/zh\/news\/jpmorgan-predict-this-rate-cut-will-be-a-hawkish-one-as-a-possible-surprise-from-todays-meeting\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u56fdFED\u5c06\u5e26\u6765\u9e70\u6d3e\u5f3a\u786c\u51cf\u606f\uff01\u4e13\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff1aFOMC\u53ef\u80fd\u5ba3\u5e03\u65b0\u60ca\u559c"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e3b\u8981\u94f6\u884c\u548c\u4e13\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/zh\/news\/why-bitcoin-always-dumps-at-us-market-open-as-fed-expected-to-approve-rate-cut-this-week\/\" rel=\"\">FOMC\u4f1a\u8bae<\/a>\u4e0a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fdb\u884c\u6fc0\u70c8\u9e70\u6d3e\u5f0f\u7684\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4e14\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5728\u8d27\u5e01\u5bbd\u677e\u653f\u7b56\u4e0b\u51cf\u7f13\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u6697\u793a\u672a\u6765\u7684\u964d\u606f\u6b21\u6570\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u52a0\u5bc6\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5b8c\u5168\u9884\u6d4b\u4eca\u5e74\u5c06\u8fdb\u884c\u7b2c3\u6b21\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u518d\u6b21\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u8c0325\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"fomc\">\u4e13\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\u4eca\u65e5FOMC\u4f1a\u8bae\u524d\u5c06\u6709\u9e70\u6d3e\u964d\u606f<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u50cf\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u9884\u671f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4eca\u5929\u4f1a\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e00\u6b21\u9e70\u6d3e\u7684\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u7684\u58f0\u660e\u6697\u793a\u672a\u6765\u7684\u964d\u606f\u5c06\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8be5\u94f6\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u5728\u4e00\u6708\u8fdb\u884c\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6b21\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u624d\u63d0\u5347\u672a\u6765\u964d\u606f\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4eca\u5929\u7684 <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/zh\/news\/what-impact-cut-rate-on-cryptocurrencies-how-does-it-affect-various-investment-markets\/\" rel=\"\">FOMC\u4f1a\u8bae<\/a> \u5c06\u8fdb\u884c 25 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u7684\u964d\u606f\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u9884\u6d4b\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5c06\u5bf9\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u606f\u63d0\u9ad8\u95e8\u69db\u53d1\u8868\u58f0\u660e\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8be5\u94f6\u884c\u9884\u8ba1\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u5c06\u57286\u6708\u548c7\u6708\u8fdb\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">FOMC preview |  J.P. Morgan<br>_\/ At next week's FOMC meeting, we expect that Committee will lower the target range for FED funds rate by 25bp to 3.50-3.75%<br>_\/ we could see median longer run dot move up from 3.0% to 3.125%.<br>_\/ not looking for significant balance sheet announcements. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/w7XKrdILpF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/w7XKrdILpF<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 FinGenAi (@ackmeni) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ackmeni\/status\/1997754555682218416?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">December 7, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u9ad8\u76db\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u52b3\u52a8\u5e02\u573a\u75b2\u8f6f\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/zh\/news\/pce-inflation-rose-to-2-8-in-september-under-the-expectations-as-bitcoin-briefly-rose-above-90000\/\" rel=\"\">\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8<\/a>\u4eca\u5929\u5c06\u518d\u6b21\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u7684\u58f0\u660e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f3a\u8c03\u672a\u6765\u964d\u606f\u7684\u66f4\u9ad8\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u82b1\u65d7\u4e5f\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4f1a\u8fdb\u884c\u9e70\u6d3e\u964d\u606f\u3002\u8be5\u94f6\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6392\u9664\u4e00\u6708\u6216\u4e09\u6708\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u606f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u907f\u514d\u91c7\u53d6\u9e3d\u6d3e\u8bed\u8c03\u3002\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4e5f\u5728\u4e3a\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0c\u9884\u671f\u4eca\u65e5\u7684 FOMC\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u4f1a\u6709\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/dashboards\/fed-rates\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Polymarket\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a<\/a>\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4eca\u5929\u964d\u606f 25 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u7684\u673a\u7387\u4e3a 97%\uff0c\u4e0e9\u6708\u548c10\u6708\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u7c7b\u4f3c\u3002<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"fomc-2\">\u4eca\u65e5FOMC\u4f1a\u8bae\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u60ca\u559c<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/krugermacro\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Alex Kr\u00fcger<\/a>\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4eca\u65e5FOMC\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u60ca\u559c\u662f\u5ba3\u5e03\u56fd\u503a\u5b58\u6b3e\u7ba1\u7406\u8d2d\u4e70\uff0c\u4ee5\u589e\u52a0\u94f6\u884c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u673a\u68b0\u4e0a\u4e0e\u91cf\u5316\u5bbd\u677eQE\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ece\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u79fb\u9664\u6301\u6709\u671f\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u63d0\u4f9b\u4eca\u65e5\u4f1a\u8bae\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u60c5\u51b5\u65f6\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u9884\u671f\u5c06\u63d0\u9ad8\u989d\u5916\u51cf\u606f\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u514b\u9c81\u683c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5df2\u7ecf\u6d88\u5316\u7684\u5f3a\u786c\u51cf\u606f\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5e02\u573a\u5c06\u4f1a\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">My base case for today's FOMC<\/p>\n<p>1) 25bp cut \u2013 almost fully priced-in (~90%).<\/p>\n<p>2) Powell raises the bar for additional cuts \u2013 highly anticipated.<\/p>\n<p>3) No major surprises on the dots.<\/p>\n<p>=&gt; priced-in Hawkish cut = chop<\/p>\n<p>The possible surprise: announcement of T-Bill Reserve Management\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Alex Kr\u00fcger (@krugermacro) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/krugermacro\/status\/1998728738901545044?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">December 10, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f4d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8fd8\u9610\u8ff0\u4e86\u56fd\u503aRMP\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u9884\u671f\u8fd9\u4f1a\u5728\u660e\u5e74\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4f7f\u5176\u6210\u4e3a\u4eca\u65e5FOMC\u4f1a\u8bae\u7684\u60ca\u559c\u3002\u4ed6\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e00\u56fd\u503aRMP\u5f62\u5bb9\u4e3a\u91cf\u5316\u5bbd\u677eQE\u7684\u8d85\u8f7b\u7248\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u4ee3\u8868\u8f7b\u5fae\u7684\u987a\u98ce\u3002\u800c\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u5728\u4f1a\u8bae\u540e\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/zh\/news\/bitcoin-etf-inflows-are-highly-confident-in-the-market-in-spite-of-current-price-fluctuations\/\" rel=\"\">\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a<\/a>\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u4ecd\u6709\u5f85\u89c2\u5bdf\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u52a0\u5bc6\u7814\u7a76\u516c\u53f8Matrixport\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u548c\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u4f1a\u8bae\u540e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4fdd\u6301\u533a\u95f4\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u548c\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u6628\u5929FOMC\u4f1a\u8bae\u524d\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u8fbe\u523094,500\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9ad8\u70b9\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u968f\u540e\u4e0e\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4e00\u8d77\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4fee\u6b63\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65d7\u8230\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u5728\u4eca\u5e747\u6b21\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e2d\u67096\u6b21\u51fa\u73b0\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"_\">\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u9879\u76ee\u5c06\u5f00\u542f\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5e94\u7528\u7684\u65b0\u7eaa\u5143<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/zh\/visit\/btchyper\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">Bitcoin Hyper\uff08$HYPER\uff09<\/a>\u6b63\u51c6\u5907\u63a8\u51fa\u5176\u57fa\u4e8eSolana\u7684\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u533a\u5757\u94fe\u6269\u5bb9\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u5e76\u5df2\u5728\u6b63\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u9884\u552e\u4e2d\u4ece\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u90a3\u91cc\u7b79\u96c6\u5230\u53ef\u89c2\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u3002\u73b0\u5728\uff0cBTC\u6301\u6709\u8005\u5c06\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u4e0d\u79bb\u5f00\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u539f\u751f\u533a\u5757\u94fe\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e3a\u5176\u6295\u8d44\u521b\u9020\u88ab\u52a8\u6536\u5165\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The seat is optional.<\/p>\n<p>Hyper carries the whole ecosystem anyway. \u26a1\ufe0f\ud83d\udd25<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/VNG0P4GuDo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/t.co\/VNG0P4GuDo<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/lNbiunomew\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/lNbiunomew<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Bitcoin Hyper (@BTC_Hyper2) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BTC_Hyper2\/status\/1998620068742312386?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">December 10, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Hyper Bridge\u5c06\u5b89\u5168\u5730\u628aBTC\u4ee3\u5e01\u4fdd\u5b58\u5728\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u94fe\u4e0a\uff0c\u5e76\u5728Hyper L2\u4e0a\u94f8\u9020\u7b49\u91cf\u4ee3\u5e01\uff0c\u8ba9\u7528\u6237\u80fd\u591f\u8bbf\u95ee\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u53bb\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5316\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u4ece\u652f\u4ed8\u3001\u6536\u76ca\u83b7\u53d6\u5230\u66f4\u591a\u7528\u4f8b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u63a8\u51fa\u5c06\u4e3aBTC\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6253\u5f00\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u70ed\u5ea6\u5df2\u7ecf\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u9884\u552e\u8d44\u91d1\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd1 3,000 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u73b0\u9636\u6bb5 <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/zh\/visit\/btchyper\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">$HYPER\u4ee3\u5e01<\/a> \u5355\u4ef7\u4ec50.013405\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u968f\u7740\u9876\u7ea7\u94b1\u5305\u548c\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u9010\u6b65\u63a5\u7eb3\u8be5Layer2\uff0c\u5bf9$HYPER\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u53ef\u80fd\u98d9\u5347\u3002\u8981\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u6da8\u4ef7\u524d\u8d2d\u4e70\uff0c\u53ea\u9700\u524d\u5f80Bitcoin Hyper\u5b98\u65b9\u7f51\u7ad9\u5e76\u8fde\u63a5\u517c\u5bb9\u94b1\u5305\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982Best Wallet\u3002\u5927\u5bb6\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528USDT\u6216SOL\u5151\u6362\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u4f7f\u7528\u94f6\u884c\u5361\u5b8c\u6210\u8d2d\u4e70\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><div class=\"su-button-center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/zh\/visit\/btchyper\" class=\"su-button su-button-style-flat\" style=\"color:#FFFFFF;background-color:#FF4040;border-color:#cc3434;border-radius:10px\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span style=\"color:#FFFFFF;padding:0px 26px;font-size:20px;line-height:40px;border-color:#ff7a7a;border-radius:10px;text-shadow:none\"> \u5b98\u7f51\u8d2d\u4e70Bitcoin Hyper<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e3b\u8981\u94f6\u884c\u548c\u4e13\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u7684&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":218,"featured_media":6880,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[30,35,92,265],"class_list":["post-6879","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-fed","tag-fomc","hashtags-bitcoin","hashtags-bitcoin-hyper","hashtags-btc","hashtags-fomc","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ 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