Is the Bottom in, yet?
2019 started with Crypto markets seeing a continued spike in volatility and fall in prices across both altcoins and bitcoin markets. Since the total Crypto market capitalization peak in 2017, we are approaching the longest bear market in bitcoin history. Many analysts and traders see the bitcoin price following historical patterns, where Bitcoin retraces off its all-time-high to about 90% of this value, which leaves the Bitcoin historical projection price bottoming out at around the $2000.00 value. We are currently around the $3400’s level witnessing a continued bull-and-bear market directional tug; with the bears triumphing due to low volume and market psychology. Many traders are either 1) HODLing (holding-on-for-dear-life) or 2) remain in cash positions, waiting for the bottom to set in. If everyone is doing 1) or 2), market liquidity dries up and leaves prices and the momentum to the few that are collapsing the order books and prices in their favor, after all, wouldn't you want to buy cheap before the next bull run? Market sentiment only changes once the bottom has set in, this bottoming inflection- point changes once called by some proclaimed market expert or due to the return of volume.
Adoption is continuing to grow but at a slower rate than anticipated, as a by-product of regulatory oversight (country's formalizing regulation on ICOs and crypto assets) and depressed crypto prices.
The bitcoin price and regulation directly impact the ICO market. ICOs, grew exponentially from mid- 2016- 2018. The recent SEC prosecutions and crack-downs on scam coins and the rise of the STO have all changed the way the ICO market will operate in future. We will still see ICOs raise more capital then via venture capital avenues, however, we will see these ICOs taking place on vetted exchanges via ECO (Exchange Coin Offering) e.g. Binance and the BitTorrent BTT token sale (which sold out in minutes). This will lower the risks of fraud and add a vetted due diligence process, KYC into the ICO model.
Bitcoin is the indicator for altcoins and we will see some sideways action for the next few days, followed by a further drop in BTC prices to around $3200.00, if we break this psychological level, we will see further downward movements. There is a glimmer of short-term hope, the Ethereum hard fork may have some positive impact on the crypto market post February 2019.
Until the bottom is in and the return of volume, the bear market trend is still intact and crypto enthusiasts need to approach speculating on bitcoin, altcoins and ICOs with caution.