{"id":8730,"date":"2026-02-11T09:51:14","date_gmt":"2026-02-11T09:51:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/pl\/?p=8730"},"modified":"2026-02-11T09:53:04","modified_gmt":"2026-02-11T09:53:04","slug":"jpmorgan-prognozy-dla-bitcoina-266-000-usd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/pl\/news\/jpmorgan-prognozy-dla-bitcoina-266-000-usd\/","title":{"rendered":"JPMorgana prognozy dla bitcoina: 266 000 USD? Instytucjonalny model wyceny nap\u0119dza d\u0142ugoterminowe prognozy wzrostowe"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Nowe prognozy dla bitcoina: analitycy JPMorgan zidentyfikowali znaczny d\u0142ugoterminowy potencja\u0142 wzrostu, wyznaczaj\u0105c docelow\u0105 cen\u0119 bazow\u0105 na poziomie 266 000 USD w oparciu o ewoluuj\u0105c\u0105 relacj\u0119 tego aktywa ze z\u0142otem.<\/p>\n<p>Zesp\u00f3\u0142 ds. strategii banku, kierowany przez dyrektora zarz\u0105dzaj\u0105cego Nikolaosa Panigirtzoglou, twierdzi, \u017ce pomimo kr\u00f3tkoterminowej presji cenowej, profil bitcoina skorygowany o ryzyko staje si\u0119 coraz bardziej atrakcyjny dla kapita\u0142u instytucjonalnego. W momencie pisania tego tekstu <a href=\"https:\/\/coinmarketcap.com\/currencies\/bitcoin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a> oscyluje w granicach 66 904 USD, a bank sugeruje, \u017ce pog\u0142\u0119biaj\u0105ca si\u0119 r\u00f3\u017cnica w wynikach mi\u0119dzy bitcoinem a z\u0142otem stworzy\u0142a przekonuj\u0105cy punkt wej\u015bcia dla cierpliwych inwestor\u00f3w.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-8732 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2026\/02\/Zrzut-ekranu-2026-02-11-103731.png\" alt=\"prognozy dla bitcoina\" width=\"424\" height=\"572\" srcset=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2026\/02\/Zrzut-ekranu-2026-02-11-103731.png 424w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/2026\/02\/Zrzut-ekranu-2026-02-11-103731-222x300.png 222w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 424px) 100vw, 424px\"><\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"prognozy_dla_bitcoina_analiza_wyceny_skorygowanej_o_zmiennosc\">Prognozy dla bitcoina. Analiza wyceny skorygowanej o zmienno\u015b\u0107<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Liczba 266 000 USD wynika z por\u00f3wnawczego modelu wyceny, kt\u00f3ry traktuje Bitcoina jako alternatyw\u0119 dla z\u0142ota w portfelach inwestycyjnych. Model JPMorgan opiera si\u0119 na za\u0142o\u017ceniu, \u017ce aby bitcoin dor\u00f3wna\u0142 \u0142\u0105cznym inwestycjom sektora prywatnego w z\u0142oto \u2013 szacowanym na oko\u0142o 8 bilion\u00f3w USD (z wy\u0142\u0105czeniem rezerw bank\u00f3w centralnych) \u2013 jego kapitalizacja rynkowa musi znacznie wzrosn\u0105\u0107. Parytet ten jest jednak uzale\u017cniony od zbie\u017cno\u015bci zmienno\u015bci bitcoina ze zmienno\u015bci\u0105 tego kruszcu.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">LATEST: \ud83d\udcc8 JPMorgan analysts say Bitcoin could eventually hit $266,000, with the Bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio falling to a record low of 1.5, making it increasingly attractive on a risk-adjusted basis. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/SlVHRFUy29\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/SlVHRFUy29<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CoinMarketCap\/status\/2019703406068121658?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">February 6, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Wed\u0142ug banku, kluczowym elementem tej tezy jest argument \u201eskorygowany o ryzyko\u201d. <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/news\/jpmorgan-says-bitcoin-has-stronger-long-term-potential-than-gold\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">JPMorgan twierdzi, \u017ce Bitcoin ma silniejszy potencja\u0142 d\u0142ugoterminowy ni\u017c z\u0142oto<\/a> w\u0142a\u015bnie dlatego, \u017ce ostatnie cykle rynkowe wykaza\u0142y strukturaln\u0105 zmian\u0119 w zmienno\u015bci. W miar\u0119 jak bitcoin si\u0119 stabilizuje, jego implikowana waga w zdywersyfikowanym portfelu mo\u017ce rosn\u0105\u0107, co pozwala mu przej\u0105\u0107 wi\u0119ksz\u0105 cz\u0119\u015b\u0107 kapita\u0142u, kt\u00f3ry tradycyjnie szuka bezpiecze\u0144stwa w z\u0142ocie.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"koszty_produkcji_i_dynamika_zmiennosci\">Koszty produkcji i dynamika zmienno\u015bci<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Kluczowym elementem optymistycznych prognoz JPMorgan jest drastyczna redukcja relatywnej <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/pl\/akademia\/cykl-bitcoina\/\" rel=\"\">zmienno\u015bci bitcoina.<\/a> Analitycy zauwa\u017cyli, \u017ce stosunek zmienno\u015bci bitcoina do zmienno\u015bci z\u0142ota spad\u0142 do oko\u0142o 1,5, co jest rekordowo niskim poziomem. Wska\u017anik ten sugeruje, \u017ce cyfrowe aktywo dojrzewa, co czyni d\u0142ugoterminowy cel JPMorgan dla bitcoina bardziej realnym ni\u017c w poprzednich, bardziej burzliwych cyklach.<\/p>\n<p>Ponadto bank wskaza\u0142 na szacunkowy koszt produkcji bitcoina wynosz\u0105cy 87 000 USD jako krytyczny poziom techniczny.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Historyczne dno:<\/strong> koszt produkcji historycznie dzia\u0142a\u0142 jako \u201emi\u0119kka dolna granica\u201d, zapobiegaj\u0105c trwalej akcji cenowej poni\u017cej punktu rentowno\u015bci dla g\u00f3rnik\u00f3w.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Przep\u0142ywy instytucjonalne:<\/strong> \u201esmart money\u201d nadal akumuluj\u0105 \u015brodki podczas tych rozbie\u017cno\u015bci. Niedawne raporty o <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/news\/cardone-capital-buys-100-bitcoin-at-76k-using-miami-rental-income\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">zakupie przez Cardone Capital 100 bitcoin\u00f3w po 76 tys. USD<\/a> s\u0105 zgodne z tez\u0105, \u017ce inwestorzy instytucjonalni postrzegaj\u0105 ceny poni\u017cej koszt\u00f3w produkcji jako okazj\u0119.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Sygna\u0142y kupna:<\/strong> podobnie, instytucjonalne sygna\u0142y kupna bitcoina na Binance sugeruj\u0105, \u017ce du\u017ce podmioty pozycjonuj\u0105 si\u0119 na odwr\u00f3cenie trendu, a nie na kapitulacj\u0119.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span id=\"prognozy_dla_bitcoina_teza_strukturalna_kontra_presja_krotkoterminowa\">Prognozy dla bitcoina. Teza strukturalna kontra presja kr\u00f3tkoterminowa<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Chocia\u017c d\u0142ugoterminowy cel prognoz dla bitcoina na poziomie 266 000 USD maluje optymistyczny obraz, inwestorzy musz\u0105 mierzy\u0107 si\u0119 z bie\u017c\u0105cymi tarciami rynkowymi. Bank przyzna\u0142, \u017ce w ostatnich miesi\u0105cach z\u0142oto osi\u0105ga\u0142o znacznie lepsze wyniki w uj\u0119ciu nominalnym, co wywar\u0142o presj\u0119 na <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/pl\/kryptowaluty\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">krypowaluty<\/a>. Jednak to w\u0142a\u015bnie ta rozbie\u017cno\u015b\u0107 nap\u0119dza propozycj\u0119 warto\u015bci; bank twierdzi, \u017ce presja sprzeda\u017cy pozosta\u0142a stosunkowo ograniczona w por\u00f3wnaniu z poprzednimi spowolnieniami.<\/p>\n<p>Perspektyw\u0119 t\u0119 podzielaj\u0105 inni znani inwestorzy, kt\u00f3rzy patrz\u0105 poza codzienne wahania cen. Na przyk\u0142ad Cathie Wood stawia w prognozach dla bitcoina, t\u0119 kryptowalut\u0119 obok innych g\u0142\u00f3wnych aktyw\u00f3w jako topowe narz\u0119dzie dywersyfikacji, wzmacniaj\u0105c pogl\u0105d, \u017ce rola krypto w budowie portfela umacnia si\u0119 niezale\u017cnie od kr\u00f3tkoterminowej zmienno\u015bci.<\/p>\n<p>Droga do sze\u015bciocyfrowej wyceny zale\u017cy od utrzymania przez bitcoina kluczowych poziom\u00f3w wsparcia i dalszego spadku zmienno\u015bci. Uczestnicy rynku b\u0119d\u0105 uwa\u017cnie obserwowa\u0107, czy ceny zdo\u0142aj\u0105 powr\u00f3ci\u0107 i utrzyma\u0107 si\u0119 powy\u017cej progu koszt\u00f3w produkcji wynosz\u0105cego 87 000 USD, co potwierdzi\u0142oby tez\u0119 o akumulacji instytucjonalnej.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Analitycy JPMorgan zidentyfikowali znaczny d\u0142ugoterminowy potencja\u0142 wzrostu dla Bitcoina, wyznaczaj\u0105c docelow\u0105 cen\u0119 bazow\u0105 na poziomie 266 000 USD w oparciu o&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":228,"featured_media":8733,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[29],"class_list":["post-8730","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>JPMorgan a prognozy dla bitcoina: 266 000 USD?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Prognozy dla bitcoina wed\u0142ug JPMorgan: 266 000 USD. 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