Augur is a Decentralized Prediction Market Platform, built on Blockchain technology. Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell shares in the outcome of an event. The current market price of a share is an estimate of the probability of an event occurring. To gain this large audience, Augur is built on Ethereum, a decentralized blockchain network similar to the Bitcoin network. Utilizing this technology, our markets can effectively eliminate counterparty risk and centralized servers while creating a global market by employing cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin.
Stunningly accurate forecasts on any topic
Augur's prediction markets provide powerful predictive data - you can think of the current market price of any share in any market as an estimate of the probability of that outcome actually occurring in the real world. For example, a share priced at 64 cents has a 64% probability of happening.
The accuracy of prediction markets rests in the idea of the "The Wisdom of the Crowd". This states that the average prediction made by a group is superior to that made by any of the individuals in that group. Markets are the perfect way to aggregate this collective wisdom - which is made up of all the information, analysis and opinion held by members of the group. With these individuals buying and selling shares in the outcome of real-world events, based on their personal knowledge and opinion, the market prices reach an equilibrium that reflect the opinion of the entire group.
Prediction markets have proven to be more accurate at forecasting the future than individual experts, surveys or traditional opinion polling. They provide real-time predictive data and are traded using real money - which incentivises market participants to reveal what they think will happen, rather than what they hope will happen. Traders are putting their money where their mouths are.