{"id":9937,"date":"2025-09-22T18:00:25","date_gmt":"2025-09-22T18:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=9937"},"modified":"2025-09-22T18:05:23","modified_gmt":"2025-09-22T18:05:23","slug":"crypto-fed-stoppe-espoirs-baisses-de-taux","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/crypto-fed-stoppe-espoirs-baisses-de-taux\/","title":{"rendered":"Crypto : la Fed freine les espoirs, place aux donn\u00e9es du moment"},"content":{"rendered":"

Deux responsables de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale, Raphael Bostic et Alberto Musalem, estiment qu\u2019il n\u2019y a pas lieu d\u2019encha\u00eener d\u2019autres baisses de taux cette ann\u00e9e<\/strong>, malgr\u00e9 le premier assouplissement de 25 points de base d\u00e9cid\u00e9 la semaine derni\u00e8re. De ce fait, l\u2019\u00e9lan du march\u00e9 crypto s\u2019est imm\u00e9diatement calm\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Un virage de ton \u00e0 la Fed<\/span><\/h2>\n

Bostic voit peu de raisons d\u2019aller plus loin en 2025. Il n\u2019est pas votant au FOMC cette ann\u00e9e, mais sa prudence compte, car elle refl\u00e8te la nervosit\u00e9 face \u00e0 une inflation toujours trop \u00e9lev\u00e9e<\/strong>. Le Wall Street Journal pr\u00e9cise m\u00eame qu\u2019il n\u2019anticipait qu\u2019une seule baisse pour l\u2019ann\u00e9e, pas davantage.<\/p>\n

Dans le m\u00eame registre, Alberto Musalem, lui votant, a enfonc\u00e9 le clou. Selon Bloomberg<\/a>, il juge les taux \u00ab\u00a0entre modestement restrictifs et neutres \u00a0\u00bb et n\u2019appuierait de nouvelles coupes qu\u2019en cas de d\u00e9gradation du march\u00e9 du travail. Autrement dit, pas de baisse automatique. La Fed veut garder ses munitions tant que l\u2019inflation refuse de converger franchement vers 2 %.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ce durcissement de ton tranche avec le geste d\u2019il y a quelques jours. Officiellement, le FOMC a bel et bien abaiss\u00e9 le taux des fed funds de 25 pb<\/a> \u00e0 4,00-4,25 %. Et Jerome Powell a qualifi\u00e9 ce geste de \u00ab\u00a0coupe de gestion des risques\u00a0\u00bb, pas d\u2019un pivot massif. Le signal sous-jacent : all\u00e9ger la pression sur l\u2019emploi, sans rel\u00e2cher la bride \u00e0 l\u2019inflation. Pour les actifs risqu\u00e9s, dont la crypto, cela signifie une liquidit\u00e9 qui s\u2019am\u00e9liore \u00e0 la marge, mais pas de vague accommodante garantie<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Crypto : de l\u2019euphorie post-FOMC au retour de la gravit\u00e9<\/span><\/h2>\n

La s\u00e9quence sur Bitcoin est r\u00e9v\u00e9latrice. Dans la foul\u00e9e de la d\u00e9cision, le prix a pouss\u00e9 au-dessus de 117 000 $<\/a>, port\u00e9e par l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019un cycle d\u2019assouplissement enfin lanc\u00e9. Plusieurs m\u00e9dias ont confirm\u00e9 ce pic, avant que l\u2019\u00e9lan ne s\u2019\u00e9mousse.<\/p>\n

Tr\u00e8s vite, le march\u00e9 crypto a repris son souffle. Au moment d\u2019\u00e9crire, bitcoin oscille autour de 112\u2013113 k $<\/strong>, preuve que l\u2019impact d\u2019une seule coupe, sans calendrier clair pour la suite, reste limit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

Cette h\u00e9sitation est classique lorsque la Fed parle fort de l\u2019inflation tout en coupant une premi\u00e8re fois. Les op\u00e9rateurs replient le risque, puis attendent le prochain datapoint macro.<\/p>\n

Techniquement, cela se voit dans la volatilit\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9e qui refuse d\u2019exploser, et dans la dominance qui se tend par \u00e0-coups : quand la communication devient plus \u00ab hawkish \u00bb, les flux se concentrent sur le haut de la courbe de qualit\u00e9, \u00e0 commencer par bitcoin<\/strong>. Les altcoins, eux, restent plus sensibles aux nuances de guidance que le bitcoin, ce qui explique des sur-r\u00e9actions ponctuelles apr\u00e8s chaque intervention de banquier central.<\/p>\n

Le march\u00e9 crypto attend encore une baisse en octobre mais la Fed temporise<\/span><\/h2>\n

Paradoxalement, les probabilit\u00e9s implicites continuent de tabler sur une nouvelle baisse en octobre.<\/strong> Selon les donn\u00e9es de Fed funds futures, la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019un nouveau -25 pb tourne autour de 90 % depuis la d\u00e9cision de septembre, m\u00eame si elle oscille au gr\u00e9 des chiffres d\u2019emploi et d\u2019inflation. Ce delta entre ce que price le march\u00e9 et ce que disent les responsables pose le d\u00e9cor des prochaines semaines.<\/p>\n

La date est fix\u00e9e : le prochain FOMC se tiendra les 28-29 octobre. Entre-temps, la Fed veut \u00e9valuer les donn\u00e9es et la\u00a0 balance des risques. En clair : chaque publication PCE, CPI ou NFP peut d\u00e9placer l\u2019aiguille<\/strong>. Pour la crypto, ces fen\u00eatres deviennent des catalyseurs binaires. Un emploi qui faiblit sans emballement des prix plaide pour la d\u00e9tente. Une inflation collante remet la r\u00e9duction de taux hors de port\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

C\u2019est pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment ce qui explique la r\u00e9action nerveuse du march\u00e9 depuis une semaine. La promesse d\u2019un cycle r\u00e9gulier de coupes n\u2019est pas formalis\u00e9e. Powell a d\u2019ailleurs insist\u00e9 : la coupe de septembre n\u2019est pas la premi\u00e8re d\u2019une s\u00e9rie act\u00e9e<\/strong>, c\u2019est une gestion des risques \u00e0 un moment d\u2019\u00e9quilibre plus fragile. Tant que ce cadrage pr\u00e9vaut, les cryptos r\u00e9agiront aux donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques du moment plut\u00f4t qu\u2019\u00e0 l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une liquidit\u00e9 sans fin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Deux responsables de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale, Raphael Bostic et Alberto Musalem, estiment qu\u2019il n\u2019y a pas lieu d\u2019encha\u00eener d\u2019autres…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":241,"featured_media":9939,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[61,130],"class_list":["post-9937","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-fed","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCrypto : la Fed stoppe net les espoirs de baisses de taux<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"La R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale refroidit l\u2019enthousiasme des march\u00e9s : Bostic et Musalem \u00e9cartent de nouvelles baisses de taux cette ann\u00e9e.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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