{"id":9361,"date":"2025-09-16T18:00:50","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T18:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=9361"},"modified":"2025-09-16T17:36:33","modified_gmt":"2025-09-16T17:36:33","slug":"tom-lee-bitcoin-et-ether-choc-haussier","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/tom-lee-bitcoin-et-ether-choc-haussier\/","title":{"rendered":"Tom Lee : Bitcoin et Ether se pr\u00e9parent \u00e0 un choc haussier massif"},"content":{"rendered":"

La th\u00e8se est simple. Si la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale rouvre le robinet, la liquidit\u00e9 remontera et les actifs sensibles au cr\u00e9dit en profiteront. Tom Lee, cofondateur de Fundstrat et pr\u00e9sident de BitMine, pense que ce sera le cas d\u00e8s ce trimestre<\/strong>. Il parle d\u2019un \u201cmonster move\u201d possible sur bitcoin et Ether. Le contexte macro s\u2019y pr\u00eate, la saisonnalit\u00e9 aussi. Le march\u00e9, lui, h\u00e9site encore.<\/p>\n

Un quatri\u00e8me trimestre \u00e0 haut potentiel<\/span><\/h2>\n

Selon Tom Lee, Bitcoin et Ether pourraient r\u00e9aliser un mouvement monstrueux dans les trois prochains mois,<\/strong> port\u00e9s par un cycle d\u2019assouplissement mon\u00e9taire et un regain de liquidit\u00e9 mondiale. L\u2019analyste a d\u00e9taill\u00e9 sur CNBC<\/a> que la combinaison de la sensibilit\u00e9 de bitcoin \u00e0 la liquidit\u00e9, de l\u2019assouplissement des banques centrales et d\u2019un quatri\u00e8me trimestre historiquement porteur pouvait faire basculer la tendance.<\/p>\n

L\u2019id\u00e9e n\u2019a rien de fumeux. Bitcoin reste un actif \u00e9minemment macro<\/strong>, r\u00e9actif au co\u00fbt du dollar et aux \u00e9carts de financement. Quand la banque centrale abaisse le loyer de l\u2019argent, la prime de risque se r\u00e9\u00e9value et les flux reviennent vers les actifs \u00e0 b\u00eata \u00e9lev\u00e9.<\/strong> Les creux r\u00e9cents ont surtout mis en valeur un march\u00e9 devenu hypersensible aux variations de liquidit\u00e9, o\u00f9 un simple glissement des anticipations suffit \u00e0 d\u00e9placer les prix.<\/p>\n

D\u00e8s ce mercredi 17 septembre, le consensus attend une baisse de 25 points de base du taux directeur<\/strong>. Les march\u00e9s \u00e0 terme n\u2019accordent qu\u2019une faible probabilit\u00e9 \u00e0 un geste de 50 points de base, mais l\u2019important est le message. Si la Fed signale qu\u2019un cycle d\u2019assouplissement s\u2019ouvre, la confiance revient et le multiplicateur de liquidit\u00e9 joue.<\/strong> C\u2019est pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment ce r\u00e9amor\u00e7age que Lee voit comme catalyseur du choc haussier.<\/p>\n

Pourquoi Bitcoin r\u00e9agit si vite \u00e0 la liquidit\u00e9<\/span><\/h2>\n

Bitcoin est l\u2019actif le plus directement expos\u00e9 aux conditions de financement globales. Son profil de collat\u00e9ral num\u00e9rique le rend extr\u00eamement sensible aux variations du dollar r\u00e9el et au co\u00fbt de portage. Quand l\u2019argent se d\u00e9tend, l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque grimpe plus vite sur Bitcoin que sur d\u2019autres classes d\u2019actifs. Le cycle 2023\u20132025 l\u2019a rappel\u00e9 \u00e0 maintes reprises.<\/strong><\/p>\n

En outre, le dernier trimestre concentre une part disproportionn\u00e9e des performances annuelles sur de nombreux actifs risqu\u00e9s<\/strong>. Sur bitcoin, l\u2019effet est accentu\u00e9 par les rotations de fin d\u2019ann\u00e9e et par des books qui se vident apr\u00e8s l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9. Les surprises macro y p\u00e8sent davantage, dans un carnet plus l\u00e9ger.<\/p>\n

La m\u00e9canique micro amplifie le tout. Les positions short se sont empil\u00e9es pendant les phases de consolidation. Une bascule des taux ou un ton plus accommodant de la Fed r\u00e9active la demande spot et d\u00e9clenche les rachats de positions vendeuses. Les mod\u00e8les de volatilit\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9s se comprimant, le levier revient. C\u2019est ainsi qu\u2019un petit choc de liquidit\u00e9 se mue en grand mouvement de prix.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ethereum, le Wall Street de 1971, selon Lee<\/span><\/h2>\n

Tom Lee va plus loin pour Ether. Il d\u00e9crit Ethereum comme un protocole de croissance, comparable au moment o\u00f9 Wall Street a explos\u00e9 d\u2019innovation apr\u00e8s la fin de l\u2019\u00e9talon-or en 1971. L\u2019argument est l\u2019empilement d\u2019usages financiers<\/strong> et la mont\u00e9e de l\u2019IA qui tokenise des micro-transactions. Dans ce r\u00e9cit, Ethereum serait le rail naturel de cette \u00e9conomie.<\/p>\n

Il \u00e9voque m\u00eame un \u00ab\u00a0moment ChatGPT des stablecoins\u00a0\u00bb. Autrement dit, un basculement d\u2019usage o\u00f9 l\u2019infrastructure blockchain devient transparente, mais omnipr\u00e9sente. Ce point de bascule ne se lit pas qu\u2019au prix. Il se lit aussi dans la profondeur de march\u00e9<\/strong>, la liquidit\u00e9 sur les paires stables et la baisse graduelle des frictions pour l\u2019utilisateur final.<\/p>\n

\"Crypto<\/p>\n

Sur le terrain des flux, un signal fort est venu de BitMine<\/a>, soci\u00e9t\u00e9 dont Lee est pr\u00e9sident. L\u2019entreprise a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 d\u00e9tenir 2,151,676 ETH, soit environ 9,7 milliards de dollars d\u2019Ether, dans un total tr\u00e9sorerie-crypto-cash de 10,77 milliards de dollars<\/strong>, ainsi qu\u2019une position en num\u00e9raire significative. Cette accumulation place BitMine parmi les plus gros d\u00e9tenteurs corporate d\u2019ETH et cr\u00e9dibilise l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019un cycle port\u00e9 par la demande institutionnelle.<\/p>\n

Le calendrier est resserr\u00e9. D\u00e9cision de la Fed mercredi 17 septembre, conf\u00e9rence de presse ensuite, puis relais des autres banques centrales. Une communication plus conciliante, m\u00eame \u00e0 petite dose, peut suffire \u00e0 raviver les flux vers Bitcoin et Ether. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, un message trop restrictif provoquerait le classique \u00ab\u00a0buy the rumor, sell the news<\/strong>\u00ab\u00a0. Le premier mouvement n\u2019est pas toujours le bon. C\u2019est la trajectoire de la communication qui compte.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La th\u00e8se est simple. Si la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale rouvre le robinet, la liquidit\u00e9 remontera et les actifs sensibles au…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":241,"featured_media":9366,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[15,57,267],"class_list":["post-9361","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-ethereum","tag-tom-lee","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTom Lee annonce un choc haussier pour Bitcoin et Ethereum<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Tom Lee (Fundstrat, BitMine) anticipe un \u00ab monster move \u00bb pour Bitcoin et Ether d\u00e8s ce trimestre, port\u00e9 par la Fed, la liquidit\u00e9 mondiale.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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