{"id":9086,"date":"2025-09-12T13:00:31","date_gmt":"2025-09-12T13:00:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=9086"},"modified":"2025-09-12T12:40:16","modified_gmt":"2025-09-12T12:40:16","slug":"bitcoin-fete-touche-a-sa-fin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-fete-touche-a-sa-fin\/","title":{"rendered":"Hausse du Bitcoin : pourquoi Peter Brandt pense que la f\u00eate touche \u00e0 sa fin"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Le trader v\u00e9t\u00e9ran Peter Brandt estime que<strong> le cycle haussier de Bitcoin pourrait culminer d\u00e8s ce mois-ci<\/strong>. L\u2019id\u00e9e tranche avec l\u2019euphorie encore palpable depuis le record d\u2019ao\u00fbt. Elle survient aussi au moment o\u00f9 la Fed s\u2019appr\u00eate \u00e0 baisser ses taux. L\u2019\u00e9lan reste fort, mais la fen\u00eatre de surperformance se r\u00e9tr\u00e9cit.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"un_sommet_de_cycle_des_ce_mois-ci\">Un sommet de cycle d\u00e8s ce mois-ci ?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Brandt a d\u00e9j\u00e0 balis\u00e9 un calendrier pr\u00e9cis. Si le sch\u00e9ma de cycles tient, <strong>le sommet de ce bull-run se logerait autour de fin septembre.<\/strong> Autrement dit, la phase d\u2019extension pourrait s\u2019essouffler avant m\u00eame que le march\u00e9 n\u2019en prenne pleinement conscience. Le signal n\u2019est pas absolu, mais il invite \u00e0 replacer le risque au centre du jeu.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">This is what I think <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3JDdIJSW13\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/t.co\/3JDdIJSW13<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PeterLBrandt\/status\/1966160252094787899?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">September 11, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Le contexte compte. <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-casse-124-000-et-pas-arreter-la\/\" rel=\"\">Bitcoin a inscrit un record<\/a> historique au-del\u00e0 de 124 000 $ \u00e0 la mi-ao\u00fbt avant d\u2019osciller plus bas. Ce va-et-vient est typique d\u2019un march\u00e9 qui teste sa r\u00e9sistance apr\u00e8s un sommet. Il ne dit pas \u201cfin du cycle\u201c, il dit \u201cprudence\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Certains y verront un pic d\u00e9j\u00e0 derri\u00e8re nous. D\u2019autres, <strong>une respiration avant une ultime jambe haussi\u00e8re.<\/strong> Brandt n\u2019exclut pas que le top soit pass\u00e9, tout en laissant une marge \u00e0 la prolongation. Ce flou est pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment ce qui fait la difficult\u00e9 de la p\u00e9riode actuelle.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"taux_en_baisse_bitcoin_en_hausse_pas_si_vite\">Taux en baisse, Bitcoin en hausse ? Pas si vite<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Le calendrier mon\u00e9taire nourrit l\u2019ambigu\u00eft\u00e9. Les \u00e9conomistes s\u2019attendent largement \u00e0 <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/fed-baisse-3-fois-taux-2025-goldman\/\" rel=\"\">une baisse de 25 points de base<\/a> lors de la r\u00e9union du 17 septembre. En th\u00e9orie, des conditions financi\u00e8res plus souples dopent l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque. En pratique,<strong> l\u2019histoire est moins lin\u00e9aire<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/pomp.substack.com\/p\/will-bitcoin-appreciate-after-interest\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Anthony Pompliano le rappelle<\/a>. En 2019, Bitcoin avait grimp\u00e9 \u201c\u00e0 la rumeur\u201d puis fl\u00e9chi \u201c\u00e0 la nouvelle\u201c lorsque les coupes sont arriv\u00e9es. E<strong>n 2024, la hausse post-coupes s\u2019est entrem\u00eal\u00e9e \u00e0 d\u2019autres facteurs<\/strong>, dont le cycle \u00e9lectoral am\u00e9ricain, rendant l\u2019attribution incertaine. Autrement dit, <strong>un assouplissement n\u2019est pas un ch\u00e8que en blanc pour bitcoin<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-9088 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BTC-CUT.jpg\" alt=\"Bitcoin Cut\" width=\"1126\" height=\"447\" srcset=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BTC-CUT.jpg 1126w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BTC-CUT-300x119.jpg 300w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BTC-CUT-1024x407.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BTC-CUT-768x305.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1126px) 100vw, 1126px\"><\/p>\n<p>Cette nuance p\u00e8se lourd si l\u2019on croise prix et macro. Si la Fed coupe mais que la croissance ralentit,<strong> l\u2019arbitrage des investisseurs peut privil\u00e9gier la liquidit\u00e9 et la qualit\u00e9<\/strong> plut\u00f4t que la sp\u00e9culation pure. Dans ce sc\u00e9nario, l\u2019\u00e9lasticit\u00e9 du bitcoin aux baisses de taux pourrait surprendre \u00e0 la baisse au moins temporairement.<\/p>\n<h3><span id=\"les_cycles_sallongent-ils_le_contre-argument\">Les cycles s\u2019allongent-ils ? Le contre-argument<\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Face \u00e0 Brandt, une th\u00e8se alternative prend de l\u2019ampleur : <strong>l\u2019allongement des cycles<\/strong>. Des analystes d\u00e9fendent une fen\u00eatre de pic \u00e9tir\u00e9e jusqu\u2019en octobre-novembre, avec un sommet plus tardif qu\u2019attendu. Le c\u0153ur de l\u2019argument : <strong>Bitcoin respire plus longtemps \u00e0 mesure que le march\u00e9 m\u00fbrit.<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">$BTC<\/a> Cycle Chart Update \ud83d\udcc8<\/p>\n<p>Thanks to <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PeterLBrandt?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@PeterLBrandt<\/a> &amp; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ColinTCrypto?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@ColinTCrypto<\/a> this analysis has made the rounds and received lots of valuable feedback \ud83d\ude4f<\/p>\n<p>So here comes the updated version with a slightly different count..<br>-&gt; Expected peak Sep\u2013Nov '25 @ $180k\u2013200k.<\/p>\n<p>(NFA) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">#Bitcoin<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/BTC?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">#BTC<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ehOWPMTzNJ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/ehOWPMTzNJ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 JDK Analysis \ud83c\uddea\ud83c\uddfa (@The_JDK99) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/The_JDK99\/status\/1957444875671982167?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">August 18, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Ce point de vue s\u2019appuie moins sur une date magique que sur l\u2019\u00e9tat du march\u00e9. Liquidit\u00e9, positionnement d\u00e9riv\u00e9s, comportement des nouveaux entrants, pression vendeuse des prises de profit. Autant de briques qui, combin\u00e9es, dessinent <strong>la derni\u00e8re pente du bull-run<\/strong>. Tant que ces briques ne s\u2019alignent pas, la m\u00e9canique d\u2019un top durable reste incompl\u00e8te.<\/p>\n<p>La consolidation actuelle renforce cette lecture. <strong>\u00c9voluer autour de 110 000\u2013115 000 $ apr\u00e8s un record n\u2019a rien d\u2019exceptionnel.<\/strong> C\u2019est m\u00eame un passage oblig\u00e9 pour jauger la profondeur de la demande et la patience de l\u2019offre. Si les creux se rel\u00e8vent et que la volatilit\u00e9 se contracte, la prolongation gagne du cr\u00e9dit.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"ce_que_cela_implique_pour_un_investisseur_bitcoin\">Ce que cela implique pour un investisseur Bitcoin<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Pour un investisseur Bitcoin, la conclusion n\u2019est pas de deviner la date, mais d\u2019ajuster le plan. Si l\u2019on accorde du poids \u00e0 Brandt,<strong> la priorit\u00e9 est de s\u00e9curiser progressivement les gains r\u00e9alis\u00e9s depuis l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9<\/strong>, tout en gardant une exposition r\u00e9siduelle au cas o\u00f9 la jambe finale se mat\u00e9rialiserait ce trimestre. Cette approche refl\u00e8te l\u2019incertitude statistique du timing. Si l\u2019on penche vers l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se de cycles plus longs, la discipline reste la m\u00eame, mais l\u2019horizon s\u2019allonge.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0La f\u00eate n\u2019est peut-\u00eatre pas finie, mais elle n\u2019est pas \u00e9ternelle<\/strong>. Un sommet de cycle se reconna\u00eet moins \u00e0 un chiffre qu\u2019\u00e0 une usure des acheteurs, \u00e0 une dispersion des performances et \u00e0 une normalisation des narratifs. La meilleure strat\u00e9gie reste une gestion active, sobre et m\u00e9thodique de l\u2019exposition au bitcoin. Et <strong>si la Fed coupe bien ses taux, prenez cela comme une donn\u00e9e de plus<\/strong>, pas comme un destin \u00e9crit.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le trader v\u00e9t\u00e9ran Peter Brandt estime que le cycle haussier de Bitcoin pourrait culminer d\u00e8s ce mois-ci. L\u2019id\u00e9e tranche&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":241,"featured_media":9103,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[262,111],"class_list":["post-9086","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bicoin","tag-hausse","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin : Derni\u00e8re ligne droite avant le pic du cycle\u00a0haussier\u00a0?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Peter Brandt pr\u00e9vient que le cycle haussier du Bitcoin pourrait atteindre son sommet ce mois-ci, malgr\u00e9 la baisse attendue des taux.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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