{"id":8951,"date":"2025-09-10T20:05:47","date_gmt":"2025-09-10T20:05:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=8951"},"modified":"2025-09-11T11:12:42","modified_gmt":"2025-09-11T11:12:42","slug":"bitcoin-correlation-bitcoin-nasdaq","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-correlation-bitcoin-nasdaq\/","title":{"rendered":"La corr\u00e9lation Bitcoin et Nasdaq devient une bombe \u00e0 retardement"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-pm-slice=\"0 0 []\">Bitcoin et le Nasdaq se d\u00e9corr\u00e8lent au mauvais moment. Le Nasdaq revient vers sa moyenne, ce qui accro\u00eet le risque de secousses sur BTC. <strong>La Fed pr\u00e9pare une baisse de 25 points de base le 17 septembre<\/strong>, soupape possible pour les actifs risqu\u00e9s. Les ETF et des flux entrants servent de coussin, sans garantie sur la tendance. Un nouveau repli des techs raviverait la pression vendeuse sur BTC.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"la_correlation_vacille\">La corr\u00e9lation vacille<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><strong>La corr\u00e9lation 30 jours BTC Nasdaq est proche de z\u00e9ro<\/strong>, d\u2019apr\u00e8s des donn\u00e9es relay\u00e9es par CryptoQuant. Le moteur actions ne sert plus de soutien imm\u00e9diat au bitcoin, les mouvements propres \u00e0 l\u2019actif gagnent en amplitude. <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ecoinometrics\/status\/1965374919279366445\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Ecoinometrics<\/a> rappelle qu\u2019en phase de retour \u00e0 la moyenne du Nasdaq, bitcoin sous-performe souvent, avec des drawdowns plus profonds.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin faces a headwind from equities.<\/p>\n<p>When the Nasdaq 100 goes through a mean reversion phase with below-average 12-month returns, Bitcoin usually lags too and it is more at risk of deeper drawdowns.<\/p>\n<p>Right now, that\u2019s exactly where we are. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/wkQmnpPrD4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/wkQmnpPrD4<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 ecoinometrics (@ecoinometrics) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ecoinometrics\/status\/1965374919279366445?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">September 9, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Les creux de novembre 2022, d\u2019ao\u00fbt 2024, puis la correction li\u00e9e aux annonces de tarifs en avril 2025, ont d\u2019abord pris forme c\u00f4t\u00e9 actions avant un rattrapage du bitcoin. <strong>Le poids des flux macro et des mod\u00e8les li\u00e9s au Nasdaq<\/strong> 100 explique ce d\u00e9calage.<\/p>\n<p>Autre lecture, <strong>la d\u00e9corr\u00e9lation marqu\u00e9e de juillet 2025 a pr\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9 un rebond de 18 % et un nouvel ATH<\/strong>. Une corr\u00e9lation qui casse signale parfois un r\u00e9cit propre au march\u00e9 crypto. Le r\u00e9gime reste instable, mais l\u2019angle tactique existe.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"le_nasdaq_mene_bitcoin_reagit_avec_retard\">Le Nasdaq m\u00e8ne, bitcoin r\u00e9agit avec retard<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Quand le Nasdaq revient \u00e0 la moyenne apr\u00e8s exc\u00e8s, les strat\u00e9gies quantitatives r\u00e9duisent le risque. Le bitcoin passe alors en second temps,<strong> il absorbe d\u2019abord le choc de liquidit\u00e9, puis rattrape si l\u2019indice se stabilise<\/strong>. C\u2019est le sch\u00e9ma mis en avant par Ecoinometrics.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/research.kaiko.com\/insights\/bitcoins-latest-record-move-in-10-charts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Les travaux de Kaiko<\/a> montrent que la corr\u00e9lation BTC Nasdaq se d\u00e9tend vite lors d\u2019un choc macro, puis remonte via les flux. Depuis le sell off li\u00e9 aux tarifs d\u2019avril, la corr\u00e9lation a touch\u00e9 des plus bas pluri mensuels. Un nouveau r\u00e9gime est possible, rarement durable. <strong>Gare aux faux signaux<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-8960 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BTCUSD_2025-09-10_22-08-25-1.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin vs Dollar\" width=\"1830\" height=\"611\" srcset=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BTCUSD_2025-09-10_22-08-25-1.png 1830w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BTCUSD_2025-09-10_22-08-25-1-300x100.png 300w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BTCUSD_2025-09-10_22-08-25-1-1024x342.png 1024w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BTCUSD_2025-09-10_22-08-25-1-768x256.png 768w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BTCUSD_2025-09-10_22-08-25-1-1536x513.png 1536w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BTCUSD_2025-09-10_22-08-25-1-1568x524.png 1568w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1830px) 100vw, 1830px\"><\/p>\n<p>Cons\u00e9quence pratique, ne pas confondre d\u00e9corr\u00e9lation et immunit\u00e9. Une corr\u00e9lation faible limite la contagion instantan\u00e9e, pas le risque diff\u00e9r\u00e9. <strong>Si le Nasdaq corrige encore, le relais macro revient vite sur bitcoin<\/strong>, surtout si la liquidit\u00e9 en stablecoins ou en d\u00e9riv\u00e9s s\u2019est contract\u00e9e.<\/p>\n<p>Le 17 septembre, <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/fed-baisse-3-fois-taux-2025-goldman\/\" rel=\"\">le march\u00e9 attend une baisse de 25 points de base<\/a> par la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale. Les probabilit\u00e9s implicites des Fed funds l\u2019indiquent, avec un r\u00e9cit d\u2019assouplissement sur fond d\u2019emploi fragilis\u00e9. Une baisse de taux cr\u00e9dible laisse du r\u00e9pit aux actifs risqu\u00e9s, dont le bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>Effet attendu, co\u00fbt du capital plus bas et respiration du dollar, deux vents porteurs pour bitcoin. Certains acteurs lisent un sc\u00e9nario quasiment acquis via FedWatch et les derniers chiffres macro. Prudence, une baisse possible d\u00e9\u00e7oit souvent sans guidage clair.<\/p>\n<p>M\u00eame les march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction penchent pour un quart de point. Si ce sc\u00e9nario se mat\u00e9rialise, <strong>la pression li\u00e9e au Nasdaq se d\u00e9tend rapidement<\/strong>, ce qui ouvre une phase de reconstruction au dessus des supports cl\u00e9s.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"etf_flux_et_psychologie_ressorts_dun_rebond\">ETF, flux et psychologie, ressorts d\u2019un rebond<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>C\u00f4t\u00e9 flux, les produits d\u2019investissement crypto enregistrent des entr\u00e9es, men\u00e9es par les \u00c9tats Unis. Cela ressemble \u00e0 une rotation m\u00e9thodique de capitaux institutionnels, souvent via les <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-etf-craquent\/\" rel=\"\">ETF Bitcoin<\/a>, en vue d\u2019un red\u00e9marrage quand l\u2019incertitude macro recule.<\/p>\n<p>Le d\u00e9tail compte, volatilit\u00e9 jour par jour, mais agr\u00e9gat mensuel positif. Une partie du march\u00e9 ach\u00e8te les replis, avec <strong>une gestion de risque stricte<\/strong> li\u00e9e \u00e0 la corr\u00e9lation actions. Un flux net positif n\u2019annule pas une chute du Nasdaq, il en amortit l\u2019effet.<\/p>\n<p>Si la Fed coupe et que la volatilit\u00e9 actions retombe, la d\u00e9corr\u00e9lation actuelle devient un catalyseur, comme en juillet. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, un nouveau spasme du Nasdaq r\u00e9active le lien. Le trader attentif suit la conf\u00e9rence de presse de la Fed autant que les carnets d\u2019ordres crypto.<\/p>\n<p><strong>La corr\u00e9lation Bitcoin Nasdaq s\u2019est affaiblie<\/strong>. Le risque de fortes baisses temporaires des prix est bien r\u00e9el. Si les techs corrigent encore. Une d\u00e9tente mon\u00e9taire offre une porte de sortie. Entre macro, flux ETF et psychologie, l\u2019alignement des signaux prime sur un chiffre isol\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin et le Nasdaq se d\u00e9corr\u00e8lent au mauvais moment. Le Nasdaq revient vers sa moyenne, ce qui accro\u00eet le&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":241,"featured_media":8956,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[15,258],"class_list":["post-8951","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-nasdaq","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>La corr\u00e9lation Bitcoin et Nasdaq devient une bombe \u00e0\u00a0retardement<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin et Nasdaq se d\u00e9corr\u00e8lent. Risque de drawdowns si les techs l\u00e2chent. 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