{"id":8944,"date":"2025-09-10T19:00:43","date_gmt":"2025-09-10T19:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=8944"},"modified":"2025-09-10T18:56:32","modified_gmt":"2025-09-10T18:56:32","slug":"bitcoin-explose-a-114-000-fed-taux","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-explose-a-114-000-fed-taux\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin explose \u00e0 114 000 $ : la Fed bient\u00f4t contrainte de baisser ses taux ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin a franchi la barre des 114 000 dollars, port\u00e9 par des chiffres d\u2019inflation \u00e0 la production (PPI) bien plus faibles qu\u2019attendu. Ce refroidissement ravive l\u2019id\u00e9e que la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale pourrait r\u00e9duire ses taux d\u00e8s septembre. Les march\u00e9s y voient un signal fort. La liquidit\u00e9 pourrait revenir plus vite que pr\u00e9vu. Mais derri\u00e8re l\u2019euphorie imm\u00e9diate, les investisseurs savent que <strong>l\u2019histoire des baisses de taux r\u00e9serve souvent une phase de volatilit\u00e9<\/strong> avant un nouvel \u00e9lan haussier.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"ppi_en_net_refroidissement_la_fenetre_souvre_pour_la_fed\">PPI en net refroidissement, la fen\u00eatre s\u2019ouvre pour la Fed<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Le bitcoin a bri\u00e8vement franchi <strong>114 000 $ dans la foul\u00e9e des chiffres de prix \u00e0 la production (PPI) d\u2019ao\u00fbt<\/strong>, ressortis bien en dessous des attentes. La paire a r\u00e9agi en quelques minutes, propuls\u00e9e par un regain d\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque et des paris accrus sur un assouplissement mon\u00e9taire proche.<\/p>\n<p>Dans le d\u00e9tail,<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/KobeissiLetter\/status\/1965756304200475088\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> le PPI annuel retombe \u00e0 2,6 %<\/a> contre 3,3 % anticip\u00e9s<\/strong>, tandis que la variation mensuelle passe en territoire n\u00e9gatif. Le \u00ab core \u00bb reste mod\u00e9r\u00e9 autour de 2,8 %, confirmant un tassement des pressions inflationnistes. <strong>Ce tableau plaide pour une demande moins vigoureuse<\/strong> et un transfert de co\u00fbts att\u00e9nu\u00e9, malgr\u00e9 un contexte encore tendu sur certains secteurs.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">BREAKING: August PPI inflation FALLS to 2.6%, below expectations of 3.3%.<\/p>\n<p>Core PPI inflation fell to 2.8%, below expectations of 3.5%.<\/p>\n<p>Month-over-month PPI inflation was NEGATIVE for just the 2nd time since March 2024.<\/p>\n<p>Rate cuts are on their way.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/KobeissiLetter\/status\/1965756304200475088?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">September 10, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Cons\u00e9quence imm\u00e9diate ? la probabilit\u00e9 implicite d\u2019un assouplissement de 25 points de base \u00e0 la r\u00e9union du 17 septembre grimpe encore. Certains acteurs \u00e9voquent m\u00eame l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se plus audacieuse d\u2019une baisse de 50 points de base. Les donn\u00e9es FedWatch convergent et <strong>plusieurs institutions ajustent d\u00e9j\u00e0 leurs pr\u00e9visions de politique mon\u00e9taire<\/strong> pour la fin d\u2019ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"pourquoi_bitcoin_reagit_si_violemment\">Pourquoi Bitcoin r\u00e9agit si violemment<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Le m\u00e9canisme est classique. Des taux plus bas r\u00e9duisent le co\u00fbt du capital et am\u00e9liorent la valorisation des actifs risqu\u00e9s, bitcoin en t\u00eate. En outre, <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/911-000-emplois-supprimes-bitcoin-112-000\/\" rel=\"\">l\u2019effacement de 911 000 emplois du bilan statistique am\u00e9ricain<\/a> a renforc\u00e9 l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une \u00e9conomie fragilis\u00e9e qui n\u00e9cessiterait un soutien rapide de la Fed.<\/p>\n<p>Sur cha\u00eene, deux indicateurs apportent un \u00e9clairage suppl\u00e9mentaire. Le MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) compare la valeur de march\u00e9 \u00e0 la valeur r\u00e9alis\u00e9e. Proche de 1, l\u2019actif est souvent sous-\u00e9valu\u00e9, au-dessus de 3 et 4, il est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement surchauff\u00e9. Actuellement, <strong>le ratio se situe encore sous ces seuils extr\u00eames, ce qui sugg\u00e8re un potentiel haussier.<\/strong><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_8945\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8945\" style=\"width: 4000px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-8945 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/Bitcoin-MVRV-Ratio.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin MVRV Ratio\" width=\"4000\" height=\"2250\" srcset=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/Bitcoin-MVRV-Ratio.png 4000w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/Bitcoin-MVRV-Ratio-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/Bitcoin-MVRV-Ratio-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/Bitcoin-MVRV-Ratio-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/Bitcoin-MVRV-Ratio-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/Bitcoin-MVRV-Ratio-2048x1152.png 2048w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/Bitcoin-MVRV-Ratio-1568x882.png 1568w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 4000px) 100vw, 4000px\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-8945\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bitcoin MVRV Ratio<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Le second indicateur est l\u2019Exchange Whale Ratio, qui mesure la part des transactions de gros porteurs sur les flux vers les exchanges. <strong>Des pics signalent des ventes massives possibles<\/strong> et donc une volatilit\u00e9 accrue \u00e0 court terme. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, une baisse de ce ratio indiquerait que les baleines conservent leurs jetons, renfor\u00e7ant l\u2019impulsion haussi\u00e8re.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"ce_que_lhistoire_des_baisses_de_taux_raconte\">Ce que l\u2019histoire des baisses de taux raconte<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Lors des baisses de taux de 2020,<strong> la panique initiale avait compress\u00e9 les valorisations on-chain avant qu\u2019un afflux massif de liquidit\u00e9s ne propulse bitcoin<\/strong> vers un nouveau cycle haussier. Le m\u00eame sc\u00e9nario s\u2019est reproduit fin 2024, avec une turbulence au d\u00e9clenchement, suivie d\u2019une reprise vigoureuse.<\/p>\n<p>La situation actuelle pr\u00e9sente toutefois une nuance. <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/trump-et-la-fed-11-candidats-pressentis-3-affichent-une-vraie-sensibilite-crypto\/\" rel=\"\">La Fed<\/a> doit composer avec un march\u00e9 du travail affaibli et un CPI encore au-dessus de l\u2019objectif. Le refroidissement du PPI est encourageant, mais <strong>il reste \u00e0 confirmer par l\u2019inflation \u00e0 la consommation<\/strong>. La banque centrale ne veut pas se pr\u00e9cipiter dans un cycle de baisse trop agressif.<\/p>\n<p>Pour bitcoin, cela ouvre une possible phase de prises de profits et de volatilit\u00e9 accrue, aliment\u00e9e par les baleines. Puis, si le CPI valide la tendance et que la Fed enclenche bel et bien l\u2019assouplissement, le march\u00e9 pourrait se stabiliser sur des bases plus solides et enclencher une nouvelle jambe de cycle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin a franchi la barre des 114 000 dollars, port\u00e9 par des chiffres d\u2019inflation \u00e0 la production (PPI) bien&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":241,"featured_media":8946,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[15,111],"class_list":["post-8944","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-hausse","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Le Bitcoin grimpe \u00e0 114 000 $ sur fond d\u2019optimisme<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin franchit 114 000 $ alors que l\u2019inflation PPI am\u00e9ricaine se calme. 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