{"id":8719,"date":"2025-09-09T09:30:39","date_gmt":"2025-09-09T09:30:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=8719"},"modified":"2025-09-09T09:02:50","modified_gmt":"2025-09-09T09:02:50","slug":"bitcoin-112-900-atteints-baisse-hante","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-112-900-atteints-baisse-hante\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin : 112 900 $ atteints, mais l\u2019ombre de la baisse hante encore les traders"},"content":{"rendered":"

En ce 9 septembre 2025, le bitcoin a repris de la hauteur au-dessus des 112 000 $. Pourtant, les march\u00e9s d\u00e9riv\u00e9s continuent d\u2019afficher une prudence marqu\u00e9e, sur fond de sorties des ETF spot et d\u2019un contexte macro o\u00f9 actions et or battent des records.<\/p>\n

Un rebond, des nerfs encore \u00e0 vif<\/span><\/h2>\n

Bitcoin a bri\u00e8vement franchi 113 000 $ et se maintient au-dessus de 112 000 $, confirmant l\u2019effacement du creux \u00e0 108 000 $ de la semaine pass\u00e9e. Mais l\u2019am\u00e9lioration du spot n\u2019a pas invers\u00e9 la psychologie de march\u00e9. La skew 30 jours reste positive autour de 9 % sur Deribit, ce qui signifie que les puts se paient plus chers que les calls<\/strong> et que la demande de protection demeure. C\u2019est le signe d\u2019un rally sous surveillance, pas d\u2019un emballement.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
\u00c9cart (skew) sur 30 jours des options Bitcoin chez Deribit : il compare le prix des options de vente (puts) et des options d\u2019achat (calls). Source : laevitas.ch<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Le message est coh\u00e9rent c\u00f4t\u00e9 financement. L\u2019annualisation du funding sur les perp\u00e9tuels tourne \u00e0 un niveau neutre,<\/strong>\u00a0proche de 11 %, en hausse depuis les ~4 % observ\u00e9s dimanche, mais sans basculer en euphorie. Autrement dit, les positions longues respirent, sans \u00e9craser les vendeurs.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Taux de financement annualis\u00e9 des contrats perp\u00e9tuels BTC. Source : laevitas.ch<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Pour rappel, le\u00a0funding est un m\u00e9canisme qui \u00e9quilibre le prix des contrats \u00e0 terme avec celui du Bitcoin r\u00e9el,<\/strong> gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 de petits paiements entre acheteurs et vendeurs.<\/p>\n

Cette retenue s\u2019explique aussi par la comparaison peu flatteuse avec les actifs traditionnels. Le S&P 500 a encha\u00een\u00e9 des records de cl\u00f4ture d\u00e9but septembre<\/strong><\/a>, pendant que l\u2019or a inscrit un sommet historique au-del\u00e0 de 3 600 $\/oz<\/a>. Le march\u00e9 lit l\u00e0 une divergence. Si le risque classique et la valeur refuge grimpent en m\u00eame temps, la prime d\u2019incertitude sur bitcoin reste \u00e9lev\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

Le v\u00e9ritable juge de paix pour le bitcoin<\/span><\/h2>\n

Le barom\u00e8tre de ce cycle reste le flux sur les ETF spot. Jeudi et vendredi derniers, les fonds am\u00e9ricains ont enregistr\u00e9 environ 383 millions de dollars de sorties nettes<\/strong>, ce qui a refroidi l\u2019app\u00e9tit au moment m\u00eame o\u00f9 le prix reprenait des couleurs. Parfois, deux s\u00e9ances n\u00e9gatives suffisent \u00e0 casser l\u2019\u00e9lan.<\/p>\n

Paradoxalement, l\u2019environnement macro n\u2019est pas franchement hostile. Les anticipations de d\u00e9tente mon\u00e9taire se renforcent \u00e0 mesure que l\u2019emploi am\u00e9ricain d\u00e9\u00e7oit, et le FedWatch refl\u00e8te une probabilit\u00e9 croissante de taux plus bas d\u2019ici 2026. Le probl\u00e8me, c\u2019est la transmission : pour bitcoin, ce vent favorable ne se convertit en flux durables que lorsqu\u2019il se mat\u00e9rialise dans les souscriptions d\u2019ETF.<\/p>\n

\"Fed<\/p>\n

Tant que les entr\u00e9es ne reprennent pas franchement, franchir 120 000 $ restera ardu. Le march\u00e9 le sait. Sans l\u2019appui r\u00e9gulier des ETF, chaque r\u00e9surgence de volatilit\u00e9 ravive la tentation de se couvrir, ce que montrent les options et la l\u00e9g\u00e8re prime de funding. La dynamique n\u2019est pas baissi\u00e8re, elle est simplement avare en confirmations.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Le signal Nasdaq et l\u2019ombre de Strategy<\/span><\/h2>\n

La concurrence pour l\u2019attention et les budgets de risque reste aussi \u00e0 surveiller. Nasdaq vient de d\u00e9poser aupr\u00e8s de la SEC un projet pour permettre la n\u00e9gociation de titres tokenis\u00e9s sur son march\u00e9 principal. Si l\u2019initiative est valid\u00e9e, elle pourrait canaliser vers des produits \u00ab\u00a0on-chain\u00a0\u00bb une partie des flux qui, jusqu\u2019ici, alimentaient surtout bitcoin et quelques grands altcoins. C\u2019est un signal d\u2019int\u00e9gration de la tokenisation au c\u0153ur du syst\u00e8me financier am\u00e9ricain.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sur le plan symbolique, la non-inclusion de Strategy<\/a> (ex-MicroStrategy) dans la derni\u00e8re recomposition du S&P 500 rappelle aussi la prudence d\u2019une partie des grands indices face \u00e0 la volatilit\u00e9 corr\u00e9l\u00e9e au bitcoin. L\u2019entreprise reste un porte-\u00e9tendard de la th\u00e8se \u00ab\u00a0tr\u00e9sor en bitcoin\u00a0\u00bb,<\/strong> mais son absence temp\u00e8re, \u00e0 court terme, l\u2019argument d\u2019une adoption institutionnelle lin\u00e9aire.<\/p>\n

Ces deux nouvelles (acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de la tokenisation \u00ab mainstream \u00bb et statu quo de Strategy vis-\u00e0-vis de l\u2019indice) alimentent une m\u00eame id\u00e9e : l\u2019adoption progresse, mais elle se diversifie. Et un investisseur qui d\u00e9couvre la blockchain par des actions tokenis\u00e9es ne se transformera pas n\u00e9cessairement en acheteur de BTC le lendemain.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Cours du bitcoin.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Le march\u00e9 reste encadr\u00e9 par un support psychologique \u00e0 110 000 $ et une zone de pression entre 118 000 $ et 120 000 $<\/strong>. Une cl\u00f4ture au-dessus de 120 000 $, accompagn\u00e9e d\u2019entr\u00e9es positives dans les ETF sur plusieurs sessions, validerait un nouveau segment de tendance. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, une glissade sous 110 000 $ r\u00e9activerait le sc\u00e9nario d\u2019un retour sur 108 000 $, support test\u00e9 r\u00e9cemment.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

En ce 9 septembre 2025, le bitcoin a repris de la hauteur au-dessus des 112 000 $. 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