{"id":8428,"date":"2025-09-04T17:03:01","date_gmt":"2025-09-04T17:03:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=8428"},"modified":"2025-09-04T17:11:52","modified_gmt":"2025-09-04T17:11:52","slug":"bitcoin-marche-baissier-octobre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-marche-baissier-octobre\/","title":{"rendered":"Le bitcoin pourrait amorcer son march\u00e9 baissier d\u00e8s octobre"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Plusieurs signaux techniques relancent un vieux d\u00e9bat : et si le bitcoin entrait en march\u00e9 baissier d\u00e8s octobre, fid\u00e8le \u00e0 son \u00ab cycle de quatre ans \u00bb ? L\u2019hypoth\u00e8se s\u2019accompagne d\u2019<strong>un sc\u00e9nario de creux potentiel autour de 50 000 $<\/strong> un an plus tard.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"un_cycle_de_quatre_ans_ou_une_boucle_qui_se_brise\">Un cycle de quatre ans ou une boucle qui se brise ?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>D\u00e8s octobre, le bitcoin pourrait basculer en march\u00e9 baissier si la th\u00e9orie cyclique se maintient, affirme Joao Wedson, fondateur d\u2019Alphractal. Son mod\u00e8le de \u00ab Repetition Fractal Cycle \u00bb projette <strong>un plancher possible vers 50 000 $ autour d\u2019octobre 2026<\/strong>, tout en laissant place \u00e0 une derni\u00e8re acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration vers 140 000 $ avant l\u2019inflexion.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Judgment Day for Bitcoin Approaches?<\/p>\n<p>Back in 2024, we pointed out that October 2025 could mark the completion of a fascinating Bitcoin fractal cycle. If true, this would signal the official closing of this phase in BTC\u2019s history.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, it would be reckless to assume that\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3dtekdPCFN\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/t.co\/3dtekdPCFN<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ZtndPv0vCm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/ZtndPv0vCm<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/joao_wedson\/status\/1963243995804352669?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">September 3, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Wedson a publi\u00e9 des graphiques sur <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/joao_wedson\/status\/1963243995804352669\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">X<\/a> pour illustrer la fen\u00eatre temporelle o\u00f9, historiquement, les phases baissi\u00e8res reprennent le contr\u00f4le. Il souligne toutefois que ce cycle n\u2019est pas une certitude m\u00e9canique, surtout depuis l\u2019arriv\u00e9e d\u2019investisseurs institutionnels et l\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9vation du bitcoin au rang d\u2019actif macro scrut\u00e9 par les grandes salles de march\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>Autrement dit, <strong>le cycle reste un cadre de lecture<\/strong>, pas une horloge. Il aide \u00e0 situer le momentum, mais doit s\u2019articuler avec la microstructure actuelle du march\u00e9, domin\u00e9e par les flux ETF, la liquidit\u00e9 en stablecoins et l\u2019app\u00e9tit (ou l\u2019aversion) pour le risque \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle globale.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"bitcoin_les_niveaux_a_surveiller\">Bitcoin : les niveaux \u00e0 surveiller<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Au c\u0153ur du d\u00e9bat, un seuil fait office de juge de paix : 100 000 $. Plusieurs traders estiment qu\u2019un nouveau test de ce support s\u2019inscrit dans la correction en cours depuis la mi-ao\u00fbt. <strong>Un \u00e9chec clair sous ce niveau nourrirait l\u2019id\u00e9e que le march\u00e9 haussier a rendu l\u2019\u00e2me<\/strong>, alors qu\u2019une reprise au-dessus validerait un simple nettoyage de l\u2019exc\u00e8s d\u2019euphorie.<\/p>\n<p>Un autre cadran attire l\u2019attention : la dominance du <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/tether-retour-marche-americain\/\" rel=\"\">Tether<\/a> (USDT.D). Depuis un an, elle \u00e9volue souvent \u00e0 contre-courant du prix du bitcoin. <strong>Un rebond durable d\u2019USDT.D<\/strong> sous une ligne de tendance baissi\u00e8re a, par le pass\u00e9, co\u00efncid\u00e9 avec des phases de pression sur le BTC. Certains analystes vont jusqu\u2019\u00e0 dire que \u00ab ce graphique d\u00e9cide \u00bb d\u2019une cassure sous 100 000 $ ou d\u2019un nouvel ATH.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-8430 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/USDT.D_2025-09-04_18-45-28.png\" alt=\"USDT.D Dominance\" width=\"1830\" height=\"611\" srcset=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/USDT.D_2025-09-04_18-45-28.png 1830w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/USDT.D_2025-09-04_18-45-28-300x100.png 300w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/USDT.D_2025-09-04_18-45-28-1024x342.png 1024w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/USDT.D_2025-09-04_18-45-28-768x256.png 768w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/USDT.D_2025-09-04_18-45-28-1536x513.png 1536w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/USDT.D_2025-09-04_18-45-28-1568x524.png 1568w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1830px) 100vw, 1830px\"><\/p>\n<p>Dans ce jeu d\u2019\u00e9quilibres, deux pistes restent ouvertes. La premi\u00e8re : <strong>une extension \u00ab finale \u00bb vers la zone des 120\u2013140 k<\/strong> $ avant la distribution. Il s\u2019agit d\u2019un sc\u00e9nario compatible avec l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019un sommet tardif puis d\u2019une capitulation \u00e9tal\u00e9e jusqu\u2019en 2026. La seconde : un march\u00e9 qui n\u2019arrive pas \u00e0 reprendre la tendance, c\u00e8de 100 k $ et enclenche plus vite que pr\u00e9vu une s\u00e9quence baissi\u00e8re, cycle oblige.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"les_nouveaux_jokers\">Les nouveaux jokers<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Le grand brouillage vient des flux institutionnels et des ETF au comptant. <strong>Certains bureaux de recherche jugent que cette nouvelle demande structurelle peut prolonger le march\u00e9 haussier bien au-del\u00e0 des sch\u00e9mas historiques<\/strong>. Chez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/bitcoins-bull-run-could-defy-history-and-last-until-2027-bernstein-analyst-says-why-that-may-be-too-optimistic-b14df756\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Bernstein<\/a>, on n\u2019exclut pas un cycle qui s\u2019\u00e9tire jusqu\u2019en 2027.<\/p>\n<p>Dans ce paysage, on voit \u00e9merger certains projets qui savent brancher le storytelling au flux. Exemple du moment : <strong>Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER). <\/strong>C\u2019est un Layer-2 pour Bitcoin qui s\u2019appuie sur une ex\u00e9cution de type SVM (famille Solana) afin d\u2019offrir rapidit\u00e9 et programmabilit\u00e9. Ce positionnement technique, lisible par les investisseurs, sert de pont entre le r\u00e9cit macro (ETF, adoption) et une proposition qui promet des usages concrets et des co\u00fbts moindres.<\/p>\n<p>Mais le m\u00eame angle \u00ab macro \u00bb peut jouer dans l\u2019autre sens. Si un march\u00e9 baissier des actifs risqu\u00e9s s\u2019installe aux \u00c9tats-Unis, le bitcoin pourrait se retrouver aspir\u00e9 par la baisse. C\u2019est le \u00ab\u00a0clou dans le cercueil\u00a0\u00bb que redoutent les partisans de la th\u00e8se cyclique. En effet<strong>, l\u2019investisseur ne peut plus s\u2019en remettre \u00e0 un seul narratif.<\/strong><\/p>\n<div style=\"background: #00DBC1;margin: auto;width: 50%;text-align: center;padding: 8px;border-radius: 5px;background-image: linear-gradient(107deg,#00DBC1,#00E676);color: white;padding-left: 1em;padding-right: 1em;font-size: 16px\"><a style=\"text-decoration: none;color: white\" href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/visit\/https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/visit\/bitcoinhyper\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Acheter Bitcoin Hyper <\/a><\/div>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p>Cet article ne repr\u00e9sente en aucun cas un conseil en investissement. Les informations fournies ici ne doivent pas \u00eatre utilis\u00e9es comme base pour prendre des d\u00e9cisions financi\u00e8res. Les investissements en crypto-monnaie comportent des risques et peuvent entra\u00eener des pertes importantes. Il convient d\u2019investir uniquement ce que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre. Effectuez toujours vos propres recherches avant de prendre toute d\u00e9cision d\u2019investissement<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Plusieurs signaux techniques relancent un vieux d\u00e9bat : et si le bitcoin entrait en march\u00e9 baissier d\u00e8s octobre, fid\u00e8le&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":241,"featured_media":8429,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[15,92],"class_list":["post-8428","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-chute","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin en chute libre d\u00e8s octobre : cible\u00a050\u00a0000\u00a0$<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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