{"id":8388,"date":"2025-09-04T13:30:23","date_gmt":"2025-09-04T13:30:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=8388"},"modified":"2025-10-17T17:30:38","modified_gmt":"2025-10-17T17:30:38","slug":"theorie-cycle-fractal-bitcoin-face-destin-octobre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/theorie-cycle-fractal-bitcoin-face-destin-octobre\/","title":{"rendered":"Th\u00e9orie du cycle fractal : Bitcoin face \u00e0 son destin en octobre"},"content":{"rendered":"

Le cycle de quatre ans a longtemps domin\u00e9 les analyses portant sur le Bitcoin. Au cours des derni\u00e8res semaines, de nombreux analystes et figures ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 la fin de ce cycle<\/strong>. Mais malgr\u00e9 leurs avis, les donn\u00e9es r\u00e9centes semblent indiquer que le cycle du Bitcoin perdure encore.<\/p>\n

Encore plus int\u00e9ressant, c\u2019est l\u2019analyse d\u2019Alphractal qui s\u2019int\u00e9resse \u00e0 la configuration fractale de ce cycle<\/strong>. Une analyse donc les conclusions pourraient r\u00e9ellement mettre fin au d\u00e9bat et guider l\u2019analyse du Bitcoin, alors qu\u2019il rentre dans un nouveau chapitre de son histoire<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Anatomie du cycle de quatre ans du Bitcoin<\/span><\/h2>\n

La th\u00e9orie du cycle de quatre ans<\/a> s\u2019est fond\u00e9e sur l\u2019observation des donn\u00e9es historiques du Bitcoin. La performance de la cryptomonnaie et les comportements des investisseurs sont devenus des \u00e9l\u00e9ments pr\u00e9visibles.<\/p>\n

Typiquement, le cycle commence avec le \u201chalving\u201d.<\/strong> Cet \u00e9v\u00e9nement technique qui r\u00e9duit de moiti\u00e9 les r\u00e9compenses que les mineurs tirent de leur activit\u00e9. Ce halving est le point de d\u00e9part du cycle et un \u00e9v\u00e9nement ponctuel<\/strong>. Apr\u00e8s une courte p\u00e9riode d\u2019adaptation, le bull run est lanc\u00e9<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Le bull run<\/strong> est la phase au cours de laquelle le jeton gagne l\u2019essentiel de sa valeur. C\u2019est au cours de cette phase que le prix du BTC atteint de nouveaux records<\/strong> et que les investisseurs aguerris gagnent gros.<\/p>\n

Vient ensuite le crash.<\/strong> Une rapide perte de valeur qui s\u2019accompagne d\u2019une h\u00e9morragie de capital. Et enfin, le bear market<\/strong> ou crypto winter<\/strong> au cours duquel les march\u00e9s s\u2019ajustent et se r\u00e9organisent<\/strong> en attendant le prochain halving.<\/p>\n

Pour certains analystes, le cycle est bel et bien r\u00e9el, mais n\u2019est pas r\u00e9ellement ancr\u00e9 au halving. D\u2019apr\u00e8s eux, le cycle est plut\u00f4t d\u00e9clench\u00e9 par le volume de liquidit\u00e9 sur les march\u00e9s financiers<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\"Leo
Source : Leo Lanza sur X<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Depuis l\u2019adoption du Bitcoin en tant qu\u2019actif sp\u00e9culatif, ce cycle dure plus ou moins quatre ans<\/strong>. La firme d\u2019analyse Alphractal estime toutefois que l\u2019analyse de ces cycles, pris dans leur ensemble, livre des informations plus pr\u00e9cieuses sur l\u2019avenir du Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

La th\u00e9orie du cycle fractal : le Bitcoin entre bient\u00f4t dans un nouveau chapitre<\/span><\/h2>\n

La firme Alphractal attire l\u2019attention sur la r\u00e9gularit\u00e9 impressionnante du cycle du Bitcoin<\/strong> depuis de nombreuses ann\u00e9es. C\u2019est un cycle dont les phases semble \u00eatre r\u00e9gl\u00e9es comme des horloges et dont les s\u00e9quences les plus petites, sont reproduites \u00e0 plus grande \u00e9chelle<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Sur la base de ce constat, le cycle actuel ne serait pas simplement un cycle de plus, mais il repr\u00e9sente la conclusion d\u2019un m\u00e9gacycle initi\u00e9 en 2011<\/strong>. Autrement dit, l\u2019effectivit\u00e9 ou non du cycle permettrait de savoir si le Bitcoin s\u2019est affranchi de son cycle de quatre ans, ou si le mod\u00e8le d\u2019analyse restera pertinent.<\/p>\n

\"Alphractal
Source : Alphractal sur X<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

En ce moment, le prix du BTC est \u00e0 110\u00a0900 $ environ. D\u2019apr\u00e8s les donn\u00e9es du cycle, le prix le plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 devrait arriver en octobre<\/strong>. Ceci laisse tout juste un mois pour que les conditions de march\u00e9 s\u2019installent.<\/p>\n

Et d\u00e9j\u00e0, les conditions favorables \u00e0 une explosion du prix apparaissent. D\u2019une part, les ETF Bitcoin qui sont de retour dans le vert<\/a> depuis le d\u00e9but de ce mois de septembre. D\u2019autre part, l\u2019optimisme grandissant des march\u00e9s crypto quant \u00e0 une baisse des taux de la Fed.<\/p>\n

Si le cycle fractal est maintenu, le prix du BTC sera \u00e0 son sommet entre le 12 et le 16 octobre 2025<\/strong>. Ce prix devrait \u00eatre tout au moins \u00e9gal \u00e0 son ATH r\u00e9cent de 124\u00a0457 $<\/strong>. Apr\u00e8s quoi, le prix du jeton devrait entamer sa chute<\/a> pour un bear market jusqu\u2019en octobre 2026<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Toutefois, il se pourrait que l\u2019afflux de capitaux dans les ETF, les entreprises de tr\u00e9sorerie et les innovations maintiennent le prix au sommet. Dans ce sc\u00e9nario, on pourra alors signer la fin d\u00e9finitive du cycle de quatre ans<\/strong> et se tourner vers ce nouveau chapitre du Bitcoin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le cycle de quatre ans a longtemps domin\u00e9 les analyses portant sur le Bitcoin. Au cours des derni\u00e8res semaines,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":224,"featured_media":8392,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8388","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTh\u00e9orie du cycle fractal : Bitcoin face \u00e0 son destin en octobre<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Alors que le cycle du Bitcoin se r\u00e9p\u00e8te avec r\u00e9gularit\u00e9 depuis des ann\u00e9es, le mois d\u2019octobre 2025 pourrait marquer un grand changement\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/theorie-cycle-fractal-bitcoin-face-destin-octobre\/\" \/>\n<meta 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