{"id":8287,"date":"2025-09-03T17:30:02","date_gmt":"2025-09-03T17:30:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=8287"},"modified":"2025-09-03T17:38:47","modified_gmt":"2025-09-03T17:38:47","slug":"crash-obligataire-de-elan-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/crash-obligataire-de-elan-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"Le crash obligataire redonne de l\u2019\u00e9lan au bitcoin"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>La mont\u00e9e brutale des rendements \u00e0 long terme dans les pays du G7 chamboule les arbitrages d\u2019actifs. Alors que les obligations perdent de leur valeur et que l\u2019or bat des records, le bitcoin revient dans le jeu. Moins stable, mais plus dynamique, il reprend un r\u00f4le de couverture. Sur fond de m\u00e9fiance croissante envers la dette publique, l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019un BTC \u00e0 150 000 dollars ne semble plus hors de port\u00e9e.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"un_retournement_obligataire_mondial\">Un retournement obligataire mondial<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Les rendements \u00e0 30 ans fr\u00f4lent les 5 % aux \u00c9tats-Unis,<strong> un niveau in\u00e9dit depuis des ann\u00e9es<\/strong>. M\u00eame tableau au Royaume-Uni, o\u00f9 les gilts \u00e0 long terme atteignent des sommets oubli\u00e9s depuis 1998.<\/p>\n<p>En France, les OAT de m\u00eame maturit\u00e9 reviennent sur leurs niveaux de 2011. Le Japon, lui, enregistre un pic historique. Autrement dit, la dette co\u00fbte plus cher partout, et les investisseurs s\u2019en d\u00e9tournent. De ce fait, l\u2019or attire en premier, <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-or-nouveau-record\/\" rel=\"\">suivi de pr\u00e8s par le bitcoin.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Ce glissement vers les actifs tangibles n\u2019est pas anecdotique. Il refl\u00e8te une inqui\u00e9tude plus large autour des finances publiques.<\/p>\n<p>Plusieurs \u00c9tats, dont le Royaume-Uni et la France, ont r\u00e9cemment \u00e9mis de la dette \u00e0 des conditions plus tendues. Les primes de risque s\u2019allongent, autrement dit, la sensibilit\u00e9 aux taux longs, redevient un enjeu macro\u00e9conomique.<\/p>\n<p>L\u2019or, en franchissant les 3\u202f500 dollars l\u2019once, envoie un signal. Historiquement, <strong>quand l\u2019or monte sur ce type de moteur, le bitcoin suit.<\/strong> Plus vite, plus fort, avec un d\u00e9lai.<\/p>\n<h3><span id=\"ce_que_disent_les_precedents\">Ce que disent les pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents<\/span><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>2013 : la peur d\u2019une r\u00e9duction du QE am\u00e9ricain (le fameux taper tantrum) pousse les taux \u00e0 la hausse. R\u00e9sultat :<strong> les actifs \u00ab durs \u00bb montent, bitcoin compris.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>2018 : la Fed monte ses taux de mani\u00e8re agressive, les obligations offrent alors des rendements r\u00e9els attractifs. Le bitcoin chute lourdement.<\/li>\n<li>2021 : les taux remontent sur fond de reprise post-COVID et d\u2019anticipations d\u2019inflation. BTC suit l\u2019or avec plus de volatilit\u00e9.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Aujourd\u2019hui, le moteur semble proche de 2021, mais avec une diff\u00e9rence : les d\u00e9ficits publics sont au c\u0153ur du probl\u00e8me.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"pourquoi_le_contexte_actuel_renforce_le_scenario_bitcoin\">Pourquoi le contexte actuel renforce le sc\u00e9nario Bitcoin<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>La dette publique am\u00e9ricaine a franchi les 37\u202f000 milliards de dollars. \u00c0 ce rythme, chaque hausse de taux p\u00e8se plus lourd sur les finances f\u00e9d\u00e9rales. D\u2019o\u00f9 le risque de \u00ab dominance budg\u00e9taire \u00bb.<\/p>\n<p>La politique mon\u00e9taire serait contrainte par le besoin de financement de l\u2019\u00c9tat.<strong> Les march\u00e9s le per\u00e7oivent et r\u00e9clament une prime, ce qui alimente encore la hausse des taux.<\/strong> Cercle connu.<\/p>\n<p>M\u00eame dynamique ailleurs.\u00a0<strong>Le Japon enregistre des plus-hauts sur ses obligations \u00e0 30 ans<\/strong>. Le Royaume-Uni retrouve ses niveaux de la fin des ann\u00e9es 90.<\/p>\n<p>En zone euro, la BCE assouplit \u00e0 la marge, mais<strong> les taux longs continuent de grimper.<\/strong> Dans ce contexte, les actifs rares, non li\u00e9s aux \u00c9tats, reprennent de l\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat. Le comportement de l\u2019or le montre d\u00e9j\u00e0. Bitcoin, avec son offre fixe, est souvent le suivant sur la liste.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"offre_reduite_pression_accrue\">Offre r\u00e9duite, pression accrue<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>C\u00f4t\u00e9 flux, <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/what-happens-to-bitcoin-price-amid-collapse-global-g7-bond-markets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">les donn\u00e9es Glassnode<\/a> indiquent <strong>une hausse de la part des d\u00e9tenteurs de long terme<\/strong> dans l\u2019offre circulante. Autrement dit, ceux qui d\u00e9tiennent ne vendent pas. Cela limite la pression vendeuse et permet au march\u00e9 d\u2019absorber les chocs plus facilement.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-8308 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BTCUSD_2025-09-03_19-25-48.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin vs Dollar\" width=\"1830\" height=\"611\" srcset=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BTCUSD_2025-09-03_19-25-48.png 1830w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BTCUSD_2025-09-03_19-25-48-300x100.png 300w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BTCUSD_2025-09-03_19-25-48-1024x342.png 1024w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BTCUSD_2025-09-03_19-25-48-768x256.png 768w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BTCUSD_2025-09-03_19-25-48-1536x513.png 1536w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BTCUSD_2025-09-03_19-25-48-1568x524.png 1568w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1830px) 100vw, 1830px\"><\/p>\n<p>\u00c0 court terme, <strong>les niveaux autour de 108\u2013113\u202f000 dollars jouent le r\u00f4le de zone de friction<\/strong>. Des faux d\u00e9parts sont possibles. Mais la dynamique de fond a chang\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>Ce n\u2019est plus la banque centrale qui pilote les taux, mais les doutes sur la soutenabilit\u00e9 des dettes publiques. Dans ce climat, Bitcoin tend \u00e0 s\u2019aligner sur l\u2019or, en plus rapide.<\/p>\n<p>Sur 12 \u00e0 24 mois, plusieurs analystes \u00e9voquent des cibles comprises entre 150\u202f000 et <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-chute-un-analyste-vise-200-000-en-uptober-bitcoin-hyper-inarretable\/\" rel=\"\">200\u202f000 dollars<\/a>, selon les flux institutionnels et les conditions de liquidit\u00e9. Rien d\u2019automatique, mais la fen\u00eatre s\u2019est rouverte.<\/p>\n<p>Un retournement brutal de politique mon\u00e9taire : soit un resserrement violent, soit l\u2019instauration d\u2019un contr\u00f4le de courbe \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle. <strong>Cela ferait chuter les rendements longs<\/strong>, refermant l\u2019arbitrage entre obligations et Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>Ce n\u2019est pas le sc\u00e9nario favori du moment. Pour l\u2019instant, les march\u00e9s sanctionnent la duration et cherchent refuge ailleurs. Dans ce r\u00e9gime-l\u00e0, le bitcoin conserve l\u2019avantage.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La mont\u00e9e brutale des rendements \u00e0 long terme dans les pays du G7 chamboule les arbitrages d\u2019actifs. Alors que&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":241,"featured_media":8307,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[15],"class_list":["post-8287","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Le krach des march\u00e9s obligataires propulse le Bitcoin<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Envol\u00e9e des rendements du G7, or \u00e0 des records : le crash obligataire pousse les capitaux vers les actifs rares. 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