{"id":7422,"date":"2025-08-25T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-25T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=7422"},"modified":"2025-08-25T10:21:08","modified_gmt":"2025-08-25T10:21:08","slug":"bitcoin-marche-baissier-pas-pour-demain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-marche-baissier-pas-pour-demain\/","title":{"rendered":"Le march\u00e9 baissier du Bitcoin n\u2019est pas pour demain"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Depuis plusieurs mois, une question revient sans cesse dans l\u2019\u00e9cosyst\u00e8me crypto : quand surviendra le prochain march\u00e9 baissier du Bitcoin ? Pour David Bailey, conseiller du pr\u00e9sident Donald Trump et figure influente du secteur, la r\u00e9ponse est claire : <strong>pas avant plusieurs ann\u00e9es<\/strong>. Une lecture qui s\u2019\u00e9carte des pr\u00e9visions plus prudentes des analystes, attach\u00e9s au cycle historique de quatre ans et aux incertitudes macro\u00e9conomiques.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"loptimisme_de_david_bailey\">L\u2019optimisme de David Bailey<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Fondateur de Bitcoin Magazine et d\u00e9sormais conseiller officiel de Trump sur les cryptos, David Bailey estime que la dynamique a bascul\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p><strong>L\u2019arriv\u00e9e massive des institutions<\/strong> change selon lui les r\u00e8gles du jeu. Banques, fonds de pension, assureurs, grandes entreprises : tous commencent \u00e0 <strong>ajouter du Bitcoin \u00e0 leurs bilans<\/strong>. Ce socle nouveau apporterait une stabilit\u00e9 absente des cycles pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents.<\/p>\n<p>Bailey souligne que cette adoption n\u2019en est qu\u2019\u00e0 ses d\u00e9buts. \u00c0 peine 0,01 % du march\u00e9 adressable serait couvert aujourd\u2019hui. Pour lui, le potentiel restant est tel qu\u2019un retournement brutal para\u00eet improbable \u00e0 court terme.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">There\u2019s not going to be another Bitcoin bear market for several years.<\/p>\n<p>Every Sovereign, Bank, Insurer, Corporate, Pension, and more will own Bitcoin. The process has already begun in earnest, yet we haven\u2019t even captured 0.01% of the TAM.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019re going so much higher. Dream big<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 David Bailey\ud83c\uddf5\ud83c\uddf7 $1.0mm\/btc is the floor (@DavidFBailey) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DavidFBailey\/status\/1959400155595329750?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">August 23, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Son discours s\u2019inscrit aussi dans la strat\u00e9gie politique de Trump, qui cherche \u00e0 faire de Bitcoin un symbole de souverainet\u00e9 mon\u00e9taire et d\u2019ind\u00e9pendance vis-\u00e0-vis du dollar.<\/p>\n<h3><span id=\"le_rappel_a_lordre_des_cycles_historiques\">Le rappel \u00e0 l\u2019ordre des cycles historiques<\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Tout le monde ne partage pas cet optimisme. Des analystes comme <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-bear-market-years-away-david-bailey\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CK Zheng<\/a>, de ZX Squared Capital, rappellent que bitcoin reste encore tr\u00e8s corr\u00e9l\u00e9 aux march\u00e9s actions.<\/p>\n<p>Si Wall Street venait \u00e0 basculer, les cryptos suivraient. <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Speculator_io\/status\/1959746278264570302\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Les exemples de 2018 et 2022<\/a> sont encore frais : <strong>chaque envol\u00e9e euphorique a fini par une chute brutale.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-7425 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/08\/BULL-Bear.jpg\" alt=\"Bull vs Bear\" width=\"2224\" height=\"1452\" srcset=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/08\/BULL-Bear.jpg 2224w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/08\/BULL-Bear-300x196.jpg 300w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/08\/BULL-Bear-1024x669.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/08\/BULL-Bear-768x501.jpg 768w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/08\/BULL-Bear-1536x1003.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/08\/BULL-Bear-2048x1337.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/08\/BULL-Bear-1568x1024.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2224px) 100vw, 2224px\"><\/p>\n<p>La Fed a bien entam\u00e9 un cycle de baisse des taux, ce qui soutient les actifs risqu\u00e9s. Mais l\u2019\u00e9quilibre reste pr\u00e9caire. <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/fed-baisse-3-fois-taux-2025-goldman\/\" rel=\"\">Une inflation<\/a> qui repart, une r\u00e9cession plus marqu\u00e9e ou une crise g\u00e9opolitique pourraient suffire \u00e0 inverser la tendance.<\/p>\n<p>Pav Hundal, analyste chez Swyftx, met en garde : <em>la volatilit\u00e9 se r\u00e9duit, mais les chocs impr\u00e9vus finissent toujours par surgir.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Et un paradoxe se dessine : l\u2019essor des ETF Bitcoin, qui draine des capitaux consid\u00e9rables, renforce la d\u00e9pendance \u00e0 la finance traditionnelle. <strong>Une crise de liquidit\u00e9 chez les grands acteurs institutionnels pourrait transformer cet atout en faiblesse.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"un_vrai_marche_baissier_pour_bitcoin\">Un vrai march\u00e9 baissier pour bitcoin ?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Certains, comme Ryan McMillin de Merkle Tree Capital, adoptent une position interm\u00e9diaire. Selon lui,<strong> le cycle actuel atteindrait son sommet vers le deuxi\u00e8me trimestre 2026<\/strong>, suivi d\u2019une correction. Mais pas n\u00e9cessairement un effondrement comme en 2018. Il envisage plut\u00f4t une s\u00e9rie de replis ponctuels. Cela offrirait des points d\u2019entr\u00e9e aux investisseurs patients.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-bear-market-years-away-david-bailey\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Cette vision<\/a> s\u2019appuie sur une comparaison avec l\u2019or au d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 2000, quand les premiers ETF avaient r\u00e9duit sa volatilit\u00e9. La financiarisation du bitcoin jouerait un r\u00f4le similaire. Mais McMillin souligne aussi<strong> le risque d\u2019un effet domino si le levier utilis\u00e9 par certains acteurs se d\u00e9nouait trop vite.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Le d\u00e9bat sur le prochain march\u00e9 baissier montre que bitcoin entre dans une nouvelle phase. Les institutions s\u2019impliquent. La Maison-Blanche affiche un soutien implicite. Tout cela renforce <strong>l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019un actif plus solide, port\u00e9 par une trajectoire de long terme.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Toutefois, l\u2019histoire et les fragilit\u00e9s macro rappellent que le risque de retournement n\u2019a pas disparu.<\/p>\n<p>Pour Bailey, chaque correction sera <strong>une opportunit\u00e9 dans un mouvement de fond haussier.<\/strong> Pour d\u2019autres, <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/cycle-crypto-fin-4-mois-halving\/\" rel=\"\">le cycle actuel<\/a> pourrait encore culminer d\u2019ici 2026, avant un nouvel \u00e9pisode baissier, m\u00eame mod\u00e9r\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>La v\u00e9rit\u00e9 se situe sans doute entre les deux. Bitcoin a toujours su surprendre, \u00e0 la hausse comme \u00e0 la baisse. Les prochains mois, marqu\u00e9s par les d\u00e9cisions de la Fed et la mont\u00e9e en puissance des ETF, donneront un premier aper\u00e7u de la trajectoire r\u00e9elle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Depuis plusieurs mois, une question revient sans cesse dans l\u2019\u00e9cosyst\u00e8me crypto : quand surviendra le prochain march\u00e9 baissier du&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":241,"featured_media":7427,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,7],"tags":[141,15,68,104,161],"class_list":["post-7422","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","category-news","tag-bear-market","tag-bitcoin","tag-bull-run","tag-predict-market","tag-prediction-prix","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - 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