{"id":7398,"date":"2025-08-25T12:00:57","date_gmt":"2025-08-25T12:00:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=7398"},"modified":"2025-08-25T10:21:21","modified_gmt":"2025-08-25T10:21:21","slug":"cycle-4-ans-bitcoin-est-il-termine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/cycle-4-ans-bitcoin-est-il-termine\/","title":{"rendered":"Le cycle de 4 ans de Bitcoin est-il termin\u00e9 ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Le d\u00e9bat revient \u00e0 chaque halving. Bitcoin suit-il encore un <strong>rythme quadriennal<\/strong> ou entre-t-il dans une nouvelle phase, port\u00e9e par les ETF et l\u2019adoption mondiale ? Les signaux changent. Et la grille de lecture aussi.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"quest-ce_que_le_cycle_de_quatre_ans\">Qu\u2019est-ce que le cycle de quatre ans ?<\/span><\/h2>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"fr\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83e\udd14 Le cycle de 4 ans du Bitcoin existe-t-il toujours ?<\/p>\n<p>C'est la grande question que de nombreux analystes se posent\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Historiquement, le Bitcoin \u00e9volue par cycles de quatre ans o\u00f9 il monte en fl\u00e8che environ un an apr\u00e8s le halving, avant que son prix ne s'effondre et s'en suit\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/JCcSKxSEna\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/JCcSKxSEna<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Goku \ud83d\uddde (@Crypto__Goku) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Crypto__Goku\/status\/1959554314365501448?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">August 24, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Historiquement, Bitcoin \u00e9volue en cycles rythm\u00e9s par le <strong>halving<\/strong>. Tous les ~210 000 blocs, la subvention par bloc est divis\u00e9e par deux. Elle est pass\u00e9e de 6,25 \u00e0 <strong>3,125 BTC<\/strong> en 2024. L\u2019<strong>\u00e9mission quotidienne<\/strong> tourne ainsi autour de <strong>450 BTC<\/strong>, contre environ 900 auparavant. Ce choc d\u2019offre a longtemps amplifi\u00e9 les march\u00e9s haussiers.<\/p>\n<p>Les pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents sommets (2013, 2017, 2021) se sont form\u00e9s dans les <strong>12 \u00e0 18 mois<\/strong> suivant un halving. Ce sch\u00e9ma a forg\u00e9 l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019un cycle o\u00f9 l\u2019offre d\u00e9croissante rencontre une demande en hausse, puis une phase d\u2019exub\u00e9rance. Cependant, le contexte a chang\u00e9 depuis 2024. La demande ne vient plus seulement des particuliers. <strong>De nouveaux acteurs structurent le march\u00e9.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"etf_flux_247_et_nouveaux_acteurs\">ETF, flux 24\/7 et nouveaux acteurs<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Depuis le lancement des <strong>ETF au comptant<\/strong> aux \u00c9tats-Unis, la demande s\u2019est <strong>institutionnalis\u00e9e<\/strong>. Les achats ne d\u00e9pendent plus seulement du sentiment retail. Ils s\u2019\u00e9talent dans le temps, via des caisses de retraites, des banques priv\u00e9es et des plateformes d\u2019\u00e9pargne. R\u00e9sultat : la pression acheteuse devient plus <strong>r\u00e9guli\u00e8re<\/strong>, moins impulsive. Les corrections restent possibles, mais les rafales d\u2019achats cr\u00e9ent un <strong>plancher plus solide<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Par ailleurs, l\u2019\u00e9cosyst\u00e8me s\u2019est professionnalis\u00e9. <strong>Prime brokers, market makers, options et perps<\/strong> lissent la volatilit\u00e9, m\u00eame si des exc\u00e8s surviennent. Les flux ne s\u2019arr\u00eatent plus le week-end. Le march\u00e9 <strong>tourne en continu<\/strong>, ce qui att\u00e9nue les spirales euphoriques courtes. Dans ce contexte, un <strong>m\u00e9ga-cycle<\/strong> plus long, ponctu\u00e9 de vagues, peut remplacer l\u2019ancien pic unique post-halving.<\/p>\n<p>Au passage, la <strong>tr\u00e9sorerie d\u2019entreprise<\/strong> s\u2019invite dans la danse. Des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s convertissent une part de leur cash en BTC pour se couvrir contre l\u2019inflation mon\u00e9taire et diversifier leur bilan. Ce mouvement reste s\u00e9lectif, mais il progresse. \u00c0 ce titre, vous pouvez relire l\u2019exemple d\u2019un investissement significatif en BTC d\u00e9taill\u00e9 ici sur ICOBench : <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/sequans-investit-150-millions-dollars-bitcoin\/\" rel=\"\">Sequans investit 150 M$ en Bitcoin<\/a>.<\/strong> Ce type d\u2019initiative installe une <strong>demande structurelle<\/strong>, moins sensible aux cycles courts.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"halving_choc_doffre_reel_mais_different\">Halving : choc d\u2019offre r\u00e9el, mais diff\u00e9rent<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Le halving garde un <strong>impact fondamental<\/strong>. Les mineurs re\u00e7oivent moins de BTC. Leur <strong>point mort<\/strong> monte si les frais ne compensent pas. En cas de baisse prolong\u00e9e, certains \u00e9teignent des machines. L\u2019offre vendue par les mineurs peut ainsi se <strong>contracter<\/strong>, ce qui soutient le prix. Cependant, l\u2019effet marginal d\u00e9cro\u00eet avec le temps. Pourquoi ? Parce que l\u2019<strong>\u00e9mission relative<\/strong> diminue \u00e0 chaque cycle. La th\u00e8se \u00ab offre divis\u00e9e par deux = prix multipli\u00e9 \u00bb devient donc <strong>trop simpliste<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>De plus, la <strong>structure des revenus des mineurs<\/strong> change. Les <strong>frais de transaction<\/strong> montent en puissance selon l\u2019activit\u00e9 on-chain (inscriptions, L2, congestion). Dans certaines p\u00e9riodes, ils soutiennent la rentabilit\u00e9 malgr\u00e9 la subvention plus faible. Autrement dit, le halving agit encore, mais son effet s\u2019inscrit d\u00e9sormais dans un <strong>\u00e9quilibre plus large<\/strong> : frais, hashrate, co\u00fbts \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques, et surtout, <strong>demande institutionnelle<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"vers_un_mega-cycle__ce_que_regardent_les_traders\">Vers un \u00ab m\u00e9ga-cycle \u00bb ? Ce que regardent les traders<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Beaucoup d\u2019observateurs parlent d\u2019un <strong>cycle \u00e9tir\u00e9<\/strong>, rythm\u00e9 par des vagues d\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque, les flux ETF, et la rotation inter-actifs. Ils surveillent plusieurs points. D\u2019abord, la <strong>liquidit\u00e9 globale<\/strong> : politique mon\u00e9taire, app\u00e9tit pour les actifs risqu\u00e9s, afflux de capitaux vers les ETF. Ensuite, les <strong>m\u00e9triques on-chain<\/strong> : offre des <strong>long-term holders<\/strong>, dormance, r\u00e9alisation des profits. Enfin, la <strong>rotation<\/strong> entre BTC et les grandes capitalisations, signe de <strong>confiance graduelle<\/strong> dans le march\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-7424 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/08\/Capture-decran-2025-08-25-115613.png\" alt=\"Le cycle de 4 ans de Bitcoin est-il termin\u00e9 ?\" width=\"754\" height=\"754\" srcset=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/08\/Capture-decran-2025-08-25-115613.png 754w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/08\/Capture-decran-2025-08-25-115613-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/08\/Capture-decran-2025-08-25-115613-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/08\/Capture-decran-2025-08-25-115613-64x64.png 64w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/08\/Capture-decran-2025-08-25-115613-600x600.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 754px) 100vw, 754px\"><\/p>\n<p>Dans ce sc\u00e9nario, Bitcoin monterait par <strong>paliers<\/strong>, avec des consolidations plus fr\u00e9quentes et moins de souffl\u00e9 unique post-halving. La volatilit\u00e9 resterait pr\u00e9sente, mais autour d\u2019une <strong>tendance haussi\u00e8re<\/strong> port\u00e9e par l\u2019adoption. Les p\u00e9riodes de surchauffe laisseraient place \u00e0 des phases de digestion, avant une <strong>nouvelle vague<\/strong>. Ce pattern s\u2019observe d\u00e9j\u00e0 sur d\u2019autres classes d\u2019actifs matures.<\/p>\n<p>Pour suivre les donn\u00e9es de march\u00e9, consultez la page BTC de <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/coinmarketcap.com\/currencies\/bitcoin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CoinMarketCap<\/a>.<\/strong> Vous y verrez l\u2019\u00e9volution de l\u2019offre en circulation, la capitalisation et les volumes, utiles pour replacer les mouvements dans leur <strong>contexte macro<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"alors_le_cycle_de_4_ans_est-il_termine\">Alors, le cycle de 4 ans est-il termin\u00e9 ?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>La r\u00e9ponse la plus honn\u00eate reste <strong>nuanc\u00e9e<\/strong>. <strong>Oui<\/strong>, le halving continue d\u2019\u00eatre un \u00e9v\u00e8nement important. Il fa\u00e7onne l\u2019offre, discipline les mineurs, et cadre la raret\u00e9 num\u00e9rique. <strong>Mais<\/strong> l\u2019arriv\u00e9e des ETF, des tr\u00e9soreries d\u2019entreprise et de nouveaux rails de liquidit\u00e9 a <strong>d\u00e9verrouill\u00e9 une demande permanente<\/strong>. Ce socle peut prolonger l\u2019ascension au-del\u00e0 d\u2019un simple sch\u00e9ma \u00ab halving \u2192 pic \u2192 hiver \u00bb.<\/p>\n<p>En pratique, mieux vaut penser <strong>sc\u00e9narios<\/strong> que certitudes. Sc\u00e9nario 1 : un <strong>m\u00e9ga-cycle<\/strong> s\u2019impose, avec des vagues haussi\u00e8res espac\u00e9es, tir\u00e9es par les flux institutionnels. Sc\u00e9nario 2 : un <strong>cycle hybride<\/strong> \u00e9merge, o\u00f9 le halving donne toujours l\u2019impulsion, mais sans parabolique finale. Dans les deux cas, la <strong>gestion du risque<\/strong> reste cl\u00e9 : objectifs clairs, prises de profits progressives, et horizon adapt\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>Une chose demeure toutefois. La proposition de valeur de Bitcoin tient \u00e0 sa <strong>raret\u00e9 v\u00e9rifiable<\/strong> et \u00e0 sa <strong>politique mon\u00e9taire pr\u00e9visible<\/strong>. C\u2019est ce cadre, renforc\u00e9 par l\u2019adoption, qui pourrait bien \u00ab d\u00e9phaser \u00bb le vieux cycle et installer Bitcoin dans une <strong>nouvelle temporalit\u00e9<\/strong> des march\u00e9s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le d\u00e9bat revient \u00e0 chaque halving. Bitcoin suit-il encore un rythme quadriennal ou entre-t-il dans une nouvelle phase, port\u00e9e&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":245,"featured_media":7421,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7398","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Le cycle de 4 ans de Bitcoin est-il termin\u00e9 ?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Les ETF, le halving 2024 et l\u2019arriv\u00e9e d\u2019institutionnels bousculent le cycle historique de Bitcoin. 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