{"id":4801,"date":"2025-07-28T18:00:23","date_gmt":"2025-07-28T18:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=4801"},"modified":"2025-07-28T18:01:56","modified_gmt":"2025-07-28T18:01:56","slug":"bitcoin-pourrait-encore-s-effondrer-80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-pourrait-encore-s-effondrer-80\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin : Le spectre d\u2019un nouveau -80 % est-il cr\u00e9dible ?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Le Bitcoin fr\u00f4le les 119 000 dollars. De nouveaux records, de nouveaux espoirs, mais aussi de vieilles questions qui reviennent. Jusqu\u2019o\u00f9 peut-il aller\u2026 avant de redescendre ? Car le pass\u00e9 p\u00e8se lourd : \u00e0 chaque cycle, ou presque, le sc\u00e9nario s\u2019est r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9. Une envol\u00e9e, puis un krach. Brutal, souvent vertigineux.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Alors oui, 2025 n\u2019est plus 2017. Le contexte a chang\u00e9. Le march\u00e9 aussi. Mais est-ce que \u00e7a suffit \u00e0 \u00e9carter le risque d\u2019un nouveau plongeon ? Pas si \u00e9vident.<\/p>\n

Des pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents difficiles \u00e0 ignorer<\/span><\/h2>\n

Le parcours du bitcoin est tout sauf lin\u00e9aire. C\u2019est une succession de pics et de chutes, parfois violentes. En 2011, il monte \u00e0 32 dollars avant de retomber \u00e0 2<\/strong>. En 2013, il grimpe \u00e0 1 150, puis chute \u00e0 150. En 2017, c\u2019est 20 000 dollars, suivis d\u2019un retour \u00e0 3 100 un an plus tard<\/strong>. En 2021, rebelote : 69 000 dollars au plus haut, 15 500 un an plus tard. Moins 77 %.<\/p>\n

Le sch\u00e9ma est presque m\u00e9canique : une euphorie, un sommet, et environ douze mois plus tard, la correction. Ce n\u2019est pas une r\u00e8gle, mais une r\u00e9gularit\u00e9 assez troublante pour faire r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\u00c0 l\u2019\u00e9poque, le march\u00e9 \u00e9tait tr\u00e8s majoritairement port\u00e9 par des particuliers. Beaucoup achetaient par effet de mode, ou par peur de rater le train. Ce fameux FOMO. R\u00e9sultat : \u00e7a montait vite et \u00e7a craquait tout aussi vite.<\/p>\n

Le r\u00f4le des institutions : stabilisateurs ou illusion d\u2019ancrage ?<\/span><\/h2>\n

Aujourd\u2019hui, la donne est diff\u00e9rente. Le bitcoin n\u2019est plus uniquement l\u2019affaire de communaut\u00e9s Reddit ou de passionn\u00e9s en ligne. Il est entr\u00e9 dans les portefeuilles de g\u00e9ants<\/strong> comme BlackRock<\/a>, Fidelity ou VanEck, notamment via les ETF au comptant lanc\u00e9s d\u00e9but 2024.<\/p>\n

Leur arriv\u00e9e change la dynamique : gestion plus rationnelle<\/strong>, horizon d\u2019investissement plus long, moins de f\u00e9brilit\u00e9 a priori. Le march\u00e9 gagne en profondeur. Et pourtant \u00e7a ne veut pas dire qu\u2019il est \u00e0 l\u2019abri.<\/p>\n

Car ces m\u00eames acteurs peuvent aussi sortir vite, et en masse en cas de choc macro ou de retournement r\u00e9glementaire. Le simple fait qu\u2019ils soient l\u00e0 ne garantit rien. Ce n\u2019est pas un parachute automatique<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Un autre facteur p\u00e8se : le climat politique. Les signaux venus de Washington, plus favorables ces derniers mois, participent \u00e0 l\u2019ancrage du Bitcoin<\/strong> dans le paysage financier am\u00e9ricain. Ce qui, mine de rien, change la perception. Mais l\u00e0 encore, rien n\u2019est fig\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Un -80 % reste possible, mais sur quels catalyseurs ?<\/span><\/h2>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

Techniquement, rien n\u2019emp\u00eacherait le bitcoin de retomber vers 25 000 dollars<\/strong> si l\u2019histoire se r\u00e9p\u00e9tait. Ce serait un retour en arri\u00e8re brutal, mais pas in\u00e9dit. Pour que cela arrive, il faudrait un encha\u00eenement de mauvaises nouvelles : r\u00e9gulation muscl\u00e9e, effondrement de la liquidit\u00e9, retrait massif des institutionnels.<\/p>\n

Aujourd\u2019hui, ce n\u2019est pas ce qu\u2019on voit. Les flux vers les ETF restent soutenus<\/strong>, l\u2019offre est comprim\u00e9e par le halving, et les grands fonds ne donnent pas de signe de d\u00e9sengagement.<\/p>\n

Mais ce march\u00e9 reste nerveux. Une mauvaise surprise, un choc externe, et la dynamique peut s\u2019inverser rapidement. Ce n\u2019est pas nouveau. M\u00eame les investisseurs pros ne sont pas toujours rationnels<\/strong> quand la pression monte.<\/p>\n

Des cycles qui se transforment<\/span><\/h3>\n

Le Bitcoin \u00e9volue par cycles.<\/a> C\u2019est une \u00e9vidence pour quiconque suit le march\u00e9 depuis quelques ann\u00e9es. Et ces cycles sont en partie li\u00e9s au halving, qui restructure m\u00e9caniquement l\u2019offre.<\/p>\n

Mais ils ne se r\u00e9p\u00e8tent pas \u00e0 l\u2019identique. Les acteurs changent, les outils aussi. Ce qui \u00e9tait vrai en 2013 ne l\u2019est plus vraiment aujourd\u2019hui.<\/p>\n

On pourrait m\u00eame dire que le march\u00e9 \u201capprend\u201d. Beaucoup de ceux qui restent ont connu des hauts et des bas. Ils savent que le\u00a0 bitcoin a rebondi apr\u00e8s chaque temp\u00eate, mais que ces rebonds prennent du temps, et ne sont jamais garantis.<\/p>\n

Garder les pieds sur terre<\/span><\/h3>\n

Un effondrement de 80 %<\/a>, comme par le pass\u00e9, n\u2019est pas \u00e0 exclure. Ce n\u2019est pas le sc\u00e9nario central, mais il reste possible. Cela dit, le march\u00e9 de 2025 n\u2019a plus grand-chose \u00e0 voir avec celui de ses d\u00e9buts. Il est plus structur\u00e9, plus liquide, mieux connect\u00e9 aux grandes institutions.<\/p>\n

Est-ce que \u00e7a veut dire qu\u2019il est devenu \u201cmature\u201d ? Pas vraiment. Mais il encaisse mieux. Et surtout, il est d\u00e9sormais surveill\u00e9\u00a0 et beaucoup plus observ\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Ce que \u00e7a implique, en pratique ? Ne pas c\u00e9der \u00e0 l\u2019euphorie. Ne pas sous-estimer les risques. Et ne pas perdre de vue que dans l\u2019univers crypto, l\u2019histoire aime se r\u00e9p\u00e9ter\u2026 mais jamais tout \u00e0 fait de la m\u00eame mani\u00e8re.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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