{"id":4694,"date":"2025-07-27T13:00:04","date_gmt":"2025-07-27T13:00:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=4694"},"modified":"2025-07-27T12:52:28","modified_gmt":"2025-07-27T12:52:28","slug":"bitcoin-bitwise-anticipe-un-bull-run-jusquen-2026-au-dela-du-cycle-des-4-ans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-bitwise-anticipe-un-bull-run-jusquen-2026-au-dela-du-cycle-des-4-ans\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin : Bitwise anticipe un bull run jusqu\u2019en 2026, au-del\u00e0 du cycle des 4 ans"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Alors que la plupart des analystes s\u2019attendent \u00e0 <strong>un sommet du Bitcoin en 2025<\/strong>, certaines voix commencent \u00e0 nuancer ce sc\u00e9nario. Bitwise, via son directeur des investissements Matt Hougan, parie sur u<strong>ne poursuite de la hausse jusqu\u2019en 2026<\/strong>, voire au-del\u00e0. Une prise de position qui remet en question le fameux cycle de quatre ans cens\u00e9 rythmer les march\u00e9s crypto.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"un_cycle_bitcoin_historique_remis_en_cause\">Un cycle Bitcoin historique remis en cause<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Le march\u00e9 du bitcoin n\u2019en est pas \u00e0 sa premi\u00e8re surprise. Mais alors que beaucoup anticipent un pic courant 2025, Matt Hougan propose une lecture diff\u00e9rente : 2025 ne marquera pas la fin de la hausse. Au contraire, <strong>2026 pourrait bien s\u2019inscrire dans la continuit\u00e9 du cycle haussier<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00e8s le d\u00e9part, Hougan pose les bases : <em>\u00ab Je parie que 2026 sera une bonne ann\u00e9e.<\/em> \u00bb Pas une simple intuition.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udea8DID I HEAR SUPER CYCLE???<\/p>\n<p>The four-year cycle is dead and adoption killed it.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Matt_Hougan?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@Matt_Hougan<\/a> says we're going higher in 2026. <\/p>\n<p>Early profit takers will be left behind!!!<\/p>\n<p>Full break down with <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JSeyff?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@JSeyff<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Matt_Hougan?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@Matt_Hougan<\/a> in comments\ud83d\udc47 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Ffn9penapN\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/Ffn9penapN<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Kyle Chass\u00e9 \/ DD\ud83d\udc38 (@kyle_chasse) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/kyle_chasse\/status\/1948700207840944193?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">July 25, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Il avance des arguments : des facteurs macro\u00e9conomiques et structurels qui, selon lui, rebattent les cartes. En r\u00e9sum\u00e9, <strong>les forces profondes qui soutiennent le Bitcoin l\u2019emporteraient<\/strong> d\u00e9sormais sur les dynamiques cycliques traditionnelles.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"un_cycle_de_moins_en_moins_pertinent\">Un cycle de moins en moins pertinent ?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Pendant des ann\u00e9es, les investisseurs ont calqu\u00e9 leur lecture du march\u00e9 sur <strong>le \u00ab\u00a0halving cycle\u00a0\u00bb<\/strong> : cette r\u00e9duction de moiti\u00e9 des r\u00e9compenses de minage, tous les quatre ans. Chaque halving a, jusqu\u2019ici, \u00e9t\u00e9 <strong>suivi d\u2019une flamb\u00e9e des pri<\/strong>x, culminant 12 \u00e0 18 mois plus tard. Mais <strong>ce sch\u00e9ma pourrait avoir fait son temps<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Hougan n\u2019y croit plus vraiment. Pour lui, l\u2019impact du halving s\u2019\u00e9rode avec le temps : <em>\u00ab Tous les quatre ans, il devient moiti\u00e9 moins important. \u00bb <\/em><\/p>\n<p>Dit autrement, l\u2019effet sur l\u2019offre devient marginal face aux dynamiques \u00e9conomiques plus larges.<\/p>\n<p>Et il n\u2019est pas le seul \u00e0 penser ainsi. Ki Young Ju, PDG de CryptoQuant, n\u2019y va pas par quatre chemins : selon lui, <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-imprevisible-fin-des-cycles-selon-ki-young-ju\/\" rel=\"\">le cycle de quatre ans est \u201cmort<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Il observe une mutation dans le comportement des investisseurs : l\u00e0 o\u00f9 les baleines revendaient jadis aux petits porteurs, elles s\u2019\u00e9changent aujourd\u2019hui des volumes entre institutions. Un signe d\u2019un march\u00e9 plus mature, plus structur\u00e9 et sans doute plus pr\u00e9visible.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"un_ecosysteme_plus_stable_malgre_les_risques\">Un \u00e9cosyst\u00e8me plus stable, malgr\u00e9 les risques<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Autre point-cl\u00e9 dans <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-upside-2026-four-year-cycle-dead-bitwise-invest-cio\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">l\u2019analyse de Bitwise<\/a> : la transformation du cadre r\u00e9glementaire. Pour Hougan, <strong>les gros accidents type FTX<\/strong> ou Terra sont d\u00e9sormais moins probables. Mieux encadr\u00e9, le secteur attire des acteurs institutionnels, ce qui contribue \u00e0 stabiliser les march\u00e9s.<\/p>\n<p>Il observe aussi que <strong>l\u2019adoption institutionnelle ne fait que commencer<\/strong>. Des entreprises cot\u00e9es, des gestionnaires comme BlackRock, voire des assureurs, s\u2019y int\u00e9ressent de plus en plus s\u00e9rieusement.<\/p>\n<p>Et cette tendance structurelle exerce, selon lui, <strong>une pression haussi\u00e8re plus durable<\/strong> , bien diff\u00e9rente des emballements sp\u00e9culatifs d\u2019autrefois.<\/p>\n<p>Cela dit, tout n\u2019est pas rose. <strong>Hougan \u00e9voque un risque \u00e9mergent<\/strong> : les \u201cBitcoin treasury companies\u201d, ces entreprises qui accumulent du BTC en \u00e9mettant des actions ou en s\u2019endettant.<\/p>\n<p>Si les prix devaient corriger violemment, <strong>ces structures pourraient vaciller<\/strong>. VanEck partage cette inqui\u00e9tude. Un potentiel point de fragilit\u00e9 si le vent venait \u00e0 tourner.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"un_bull_run_plus_lent_mais_plus_profond\">Un bull run plus lent, mais plus profond ?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Hougan n\u2019attend pas une envol\u00e9e spectaculaire \u00e0 court terme. Il mise plut\u00f4t sur un <strong>\u201cboom soutenu et progressif\u201d<\/strong>. Pas de super-cycle, donc, mais une appr\u00e9ciation \u00e9tal\u00e9e sur plusieurs ann\u00e9es, port\u00e9e par des fondamentaux robustes.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-4698 size-full aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/07\/Bitcoin-Nan.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin-bull run\" width=\"909\" height=\"711\" srcset=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/07\/Bitcoin-Nan.png 909w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/07\/Bitcoin-Nan-300x235.png 300w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/07\/Bitcoin-Nan-768x601.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 909px) 100vw, 909px\"><\/p>\n<p>Ce point de vue s\u2019oppose \u00e0 celui d\u2019analystes comme Rekt Capital, qui reste <strong>fid\u00e8le au mod\u00e8le du cycle post-halving,<\/strong> avec un pic attendu en octobre 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Mais m\u00eame chez les partisans de ce sc\u00e9nario, les incertitudes restent nombreuses, tant sur l\u2019intensit\u00e9 que sur la dur\u00e9e de la phase haussi\u00e8re.<\/p>\n<p>Hougan, lui, garde une certaine humilit\u00e9 :<em> \u00ab Je peux me tromper \u00bb<\/em>, conc\u00e8de-t-il. Il s\u2019attend \u00e0 \u00ab u<strong>ne volatilit\u00e9 importante<\/strong> \u00bb.<\/p>\n<p>Mais le message principal est clair : <strong>les r\u00e8gles ont chang\u00e9, et les rep\u00e8res classiques ne suffisent plus \u00e0 lire ce march\u00e9<\/strong>. Il est temps, dit-il, d\u2019\u00e9largir les grilles d\u2019analyse.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"penser_au-dela_du_cycle_bitcoin\">Penser au-del\u00e0 du cycle Bitcoin<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>L\u2019approche de Bitwise s\u2019inscrit dans une vision plus globale de l\u2019\u00e9volution de l\u2019\u00e9cosyst\u00e8me crypto. En 2025, beaucoup scruteront les courbes pass\u00e9es pour tenter d\u2019anticiper le futur. Mais selon Hougan, <strong>le vrai mouvement pourrait commencer l\u00e0 o\u00f9 d\u2019autres s\u2019attendent \u00e0 la fin.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Le bitcoin ne suit peut-\u00eatre plus un cycle, mais une trajectoire. Une trajectoire dessin\u00e9e par la r\u00e9gulation, l\u2019adoption institutionnelle, les politiques mon\u00e9taires et <strong>un int\u00e9r\u00eat croissant pour les actifs alternatifs<\/strong>. Si cette lecture s\u2019av\u00e8re juste, alors 2026 ne serait pas la sortie du bull run mais son prolongement.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alors que la plupart des analystes s\u2019attendent \u00e0 un sommet du Bitcoin en 2025, certaines voix commencent \u00e0 nuancer&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":241,"featured_media":4690,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,7],"tags":[15],"class_list":["post-4694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","category-news","tag-bitcoin","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin : 2025 ne serait pas la fin du bull run<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitwise remet en question 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