{"id":4527,"date":"2025-07-25T11:00:24","date_gmt":"2025-07-25T11:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=4527"},"modified":"2025-07-25T13:49:02","modified_gmt":"2025-07-25T13:49:02","slug":"bitcoin-imprevisible-fin-des-cycles-selon-ki-young-ju","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-imprevisible-fin-des-cycles-selon-ki-young-ju\/","title":{"rendered":"Le Bitcoin devient impr\u00e9visible : fin des cycles selon Ki Young Ju"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Depuis plus de dix ans, le bitcoin donnait l\u2019impression d\u2019\u00e9voluer comme une horloge : emballement, chute, accalmie puis rebelote. Mais <strong>cette m\u00e9canique bien rod\u00e9e pourrait appartenir au pass\u00e9<\/strong>. C\u2019est en tout cas ce que pense Ki Young Ju, fondateur et CEO de CryptoQuant, l\u2019un des analystes les plus \u00e9cout\u00e9s de l\u2019\u00e9cosyst\u00e8me crypto. Selon lui, <strong>la Bitcoin Cycle Theory n\u2019est plus d\u2019actualit\u00e9<\/strong>. Le march\u00e9 serait entr\u00e9 dans une phase plus brouill\u00e9e, moins lisible, mais aussi plus mature.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"la_fin_dun_modele_previsible\">La fin d\u2019un mod\u00e8le pr\u00e9visible ?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Historiquement, le bitcoin \u00e9voluait par cycles de quatre ans, rythm\u00e9s par le halving (la r\u00e9duction des r\u00e9compenses accord\u00e9es aux mineurs) suivi d\u2019un bull run, puis d\u2019un krach. <strong>Ce mod\u00e8le avait fini par s\u2019imposer<\/strong> comme une grille de lecture quasi automatique pour nombre d\u2019investisseurs.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-4540 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/07\/Bg.jpg\" alt=\"Bitcoin Halving\" width=\"1080\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/07\/Bg.jpg 1080w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/07\/Bg-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/07\/Bg-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/07\/Bg-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/07\/Bg-600x400.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1080px) 100vw, 1080px\"><\/p>\n<p>Mais selon Ki Young Ju, cette dynamique ne tient plus. Dans <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ki_young_ju\/status\/1948575431684186373\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">un message r\u00e9cent<\/a>, il a reconnu que sa pr\u00e9diction d\u2019avril, annon\u00e7ant la fin du cycle haussier, s\u2019\u00e9tait r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9e compl\u00e8tement \u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9 de la plaque.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c0 l\u2019\u00e9poque, il affirmait que <strong>l\u2019afflux de capitaux ne parvenait plus \u00e0 faire monter le prix du bitcoin<\/strong>, alors autour de 80 000 dollars. R\u00e9sultat : le march\u00e9 a fait l\u2019inverse. <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-record-acheteurs-inconnus\/\" rel=\"\">Le bitcoin a grimp\u00e9<\/a> jusqu\u2019\u00e0 123 000 dollars en juillet. Quelque chose lui avait \u00e9chapp\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>En clair, les anciens r\u00e9flexes de lecture ne suffisent plus. <strong>M\u00eame les analystes aguerris se retrouvent parfois \u00e0 contre-pied<\/strong>. Le march\u00e9 semble d\u00e9sormais r\u00e9gi par des logiques qui d\u00e9passent les anciens sch\u00e9mas. L\u2019\u00e8re des cycles m\u00e9caniques touche peut-\u00eatre \u00e0 sa fin.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"un_changement_de_garde_chez_les_detenteurs\">Un changement de garde chez les d\u00e9tenteurs<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Autre constat de Ju : le profil des acteurs dominants a chang\u00e9. Avant, les \u00ab\u00a0whales\u00a0\u00bb (les gros porteurs) achetaient t\u00f4t, attendaient la fr\u00e9n\u00e9sie du grand public, vendaient au plus haut, puis recommen\u00e7aient. Un jeu classique d\u2019accumulation-distribution.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">HTX whale(s) longed <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">#Bitcoin<\/a> again at $118K. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/oSqGQbKYbS\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/t.co\/oSqGQbKYbS<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/AHmM0AntCm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/AHmM0AntCm<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ki_young_ju\/status\/1948575431684186373?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">July 25, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Aujourd\u2019hui, le sc\u00e9nario para\u00eet invers\u00e9. <strong>Les anciennes whales ne c\u00e8dent plus leurs jetons aux petits porteurs surexcit\u00e9s<\/strong>. Elles vendent d\u00e9sormais \u00e0 d\u2019autres whales, souvent institutionnelles, avec un horizon bien plus long.<\/p>\n<p>Ces nouveaux acteurs (entreprises, fonds, tr\u00e9soreries ) n\u2019ach\u00e8tent pas pour sp\u00e9culer sur le prochain pic. <strong>Ils cherchent \u00e0 prot\u00e9ger leur capital<\/strong>, \u00e0 long terme. R\u00e9sultat : les mouvements de prix ne r\u00e9pondent plus seulement \u00e0 la peur ou \u00e0 l\u2019euphorie. Ils sont aussi dict\u00e9s par des logiques plus lentes, moins visibles, mais plus structurantes.<\/p>\n<p>Le march\u00e9 passe d\u2019une phase de sp\u00e9culation cyclique \u00e0 <strong>une forme de consolidation<\/strong>. Et \u00e7a change tout.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"des_analystes_divises_sur_la_suite\">Des analystes divis\u00e9s sur la suite<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Tout le monde ne partage pas la vision de Ki Young Ju. Jurrien Timmer, chez Fidelity, d\u00e9fend une lecture bien diff\u00e9rente. Selon lui, <strong>le bitcoin suit toujours son cycle quadriennal<\/strong> \u00ab\u00a0de tr\u00e8s pr\u00e8s\u00a0\u00bb.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin reached yet another new all-time high, and has continued to follow its 4-year cycle very closely. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/pbkJkHucLM\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/pbkJkHucLM<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TimmerFidelity\/status\/1948105854819107216?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">July 23, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Les phases d\u2019euphorie, de correction et de stagnation restent lisibles dans les courbes, et <strong>le halving de 2024 jouerait encore un r\u00f4le moteur dans la dynamique actuelle<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Cette divergence montre une chose : <strong>le bitcoin est devenu plus difficile \u00e0 interpr\u00e9ter<\/strong>. Il ne suffit plus de scruter les volumes ou les moyennes mobiles. Il faut aussi tenir compte <strong>des politiques mon\u00e9taires, de la psychologie des institutionnels<\/strong>, voire du contexte g\u00e9opolitique.<\/p>\n<p>Le bitcoin n\u2019est plus un actif marginal : c\u2019est une pi\u00e8ce \u00e0 part enti\u00e8re du puzzle \u00e9conomique mondial. Encore faut-il s\u2019entendre sur ce que cela implique.<strong> Certains y voient une stabilisation bienvenue<\/strong> ; d\u2019autres redoutent une perte d\u2019agilit\u00e9.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"vers_un_nouveau_paradigme\">Vers un nouveau paradigme ?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Plut\u00f4t que de chercher \u00e0 deviner le prochain sommet, beaucoup d\u2019investisseurs commencent \u00e0 changer de focale. Le march\u00e9 reste volatil, mais <strong>les rep\u00e8res anciens ne fonctionnent plus<\/strong>. Les mod\u00e8les techniques ont perdu de leur pertinence face \u00e0 des logiques plus profondes.<\/p>\n<p>La patience redevient une vertu. Il ne s\u2019agit plus seulement d\u2019analyser des bougies ou de pr\u00e9dire un breakout. <strong>Il faut regarder qui ach\u00e8te, pourquoi, et avec quelles intentions<\/strong>. Le prix est une chose, mais les comportements en disent souvent plus.<\/p>\n<p>Au passage, la d\u00e9claration un brin d\u00e9sabus\u00e9e de Ju \u2014 \u00ab\u00a0trader ne sert plus \u00e0 rien\u00a0\u00bb \u2014 traduit bien cette bascule. Peut-\u00eatre que l\u2019heure n\u2019est plus \u00e0 la sp\u00e9culation effr\u00e9n\u00e9e, mais \u00e0 une forme de maturation du march\u00e9. Holding plut\u00f4t que trading. Fondamentaux plut\u00f4t que cycles.<\/p>\n<p>La d\u00e9claration de Ki Young Ju marque-t-elle la fin d\u00e9finitive des cycles du Bitcoin, ou simplement une \u00e9volution dans leur forme ? Difficile \u00e0 dire. Ce qui est certain, c\u2019est que les anciens rep\u00e8res ont perdu de leur efficacit\u00e9. Et dans ce nouvel environnement, <strong>l\u2019impr\u00e9visible est peut-\u00eatre devenu la seule vraie constante<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Depuis plus de dix ans, le bitcoin donnait l\u2019impression d\u2019\u00e9voluer comme une horloge : emballement, chute, accalmie puis rebelote&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":241,"featured_media":4544,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,7],"tags":[15,117],"class_list":["post-4527","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-cycle","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Ki Young Ju d\u00e9clare la mort des cycles Bitcoin<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le Bitcoin ne suit plus ses cycles habituels, selon Ki Young Ju. 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