{"id":19038,"date":"2026-08-12T17:18:46","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T17:18:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=19038"},"modified":"2026-08-10T11:20:13","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T11:20:13","slug":"bitcoin-et-yen-goldman-sachs-prevoit-une-hausse-du-usd-jpy-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-et-yen-goldman-sachs-prevoit-une-hausse-du-usd-jpy-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin et Yen : Goldman Sachs pr\u00e9voit une hausse du USD\/JPY"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/08\/content-img-1-9.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/figure>\r\n\r\n<p>Goldman Sachs a nettement revu \u00e0 la hausse ses pr\u00e9visions pour la paire USD\/JPY. La banque projette d\u00e9sormais le yen japonais \u00e0 162 pour un dollar d\u2019ici trois mois, 163 d\u2019ici six mois et 165 d\u2019ici un an, contre un objectif pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent de 155 \u00e0 12 mois. L\u2019institution d\u00e9clare que le carry trade sur le yen est d\u00e9sormais structurellement durable.<\/p>\r\n<p>Cette affirmation, sugg\u00e9rant que les conditions du carry trade sont les plus favorables depuis plus de deux d\u00e9cennies, intervient alors que l\u2019effet de levier financ\u00e9 par le yen est devenu une source de liquidit\u00e9 mesurable pour le Bitcoin et d\u2019autres actifs \u00e0 risque. Cela cr\u00e9e un canal de transmission direct entre la politique mon\u00e9taire japonaise et la tarification du march\u00e9 crypto.<\/p>\r\n<p>L\u2019implication double pour le Bitcoin n\u2019est pas n\u00e9gligeable. Un maintien de l\u2019activit\u00e9 de carry trade signifie un flux persistant de capitaux bon march\u00e9 \u00e0 la recherche de rendement dans des actifs plus performants, et une partie de ces capitaux finit in\u00e9vitablement sur les march\u00e9s crypto.<\/p>\r\n<p><\/p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Goldman Sachs recently reported that carry trades are facing the best conditions in over two decades due to sustained yen weakness, fueling risk asset inflows and benefiting crypto markets. Meanwhile, Bitwise Asset Management named the CLARITY Act as a potential catalyst for\u2026<\/p>\u2014 Ben Ben Ben (@BenRustC) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/BenRustC\/status\/2075451828452630849?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">July 10, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\r\n<p>Cependant, la m\u00eame dynamique structurelle qui soutient le march\u00e9 peut s\u2019inverser avec une rapidit\u00e9 extraordinaire. L\u2019\u00e9pisode d\u2019ao\u00fbt 2024 l\u2019a d\u00e9montr\u00e9 : un mouvement inattendu de la Banque du Japon (BoJ) a d\u00e9clench\u00e9 un d\u00e9sendettement (deleveraging) multi-actifs qui a fait chuter brutalement le Bitcoin en quelques heures.<\/p>\r\n<p>La question que le march\u00e9 doit maintenant r\u00e9soudre est de savoir si le vent arri\u00e8re de liquidit\u00e9 du carry trade soutiendra l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque du Bitcoin assez longtemps, ou si l\u2019approche du seuil d\u2019intervention transformera la faiblesse du yen en d\u00e9clencheur de la prochaine vague de liquidation massive.<\/p>\r\n<h2><span id=\"goldman_sachs_et_la_prevision_usdjpy_ce_que_lobjectif_de_165_revele_sur_lexposition_macro_du_bitcoin\">Goldman Sachs et la pr\u00e9vision USD\/JPY : ce que l\u2019objectif de 165 r\u00e9v\u00e8le sur l\u2019exposition macro du Bitcoin<\/span><\/h2>\r\n<p>Le contexte donne tout son sens \u00e0 cette pr\u00e9vision brute. Le m\u00e9canisme du carry trade sur le yen est simple : un investisseur emprunte en yens japonais \u00e0 des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat proches de z\u00e9ro, convertit les fonds dans une devise ou un actif \u00e0 rendement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9, et empoche l\u2019\u00e9cart (le spread) entre le co\u00fbt du financement et le rendement obtenu.<\/p>\r\n<p>Plus l\u2019\u00e9cart de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat entre le Japon et le reste du monde est large, plus l\u2019op\u00e9ration est attractive. Actuellement, ce diff\u00e9rentiel reste obstin\u00e9ment \u00e9lev\u00e9, la Banque du Japon ajustant sa politique mon\u00e9taire \u00e0 un rythme que la source principale qualifie, au mieux, de glacial.<\/p>\r\n<p>Le chemin de transmission haussier pour le Bitcoin se dessine ainsi : un financement bon march\u00e9 en yens augmente le pool de levier mondial disponible \u2192 les traders d\u00e9ploient ce levier vers des actifs \u00e0 haut rendement (actions, dette \u00e9mergente, cr\u00e9dit et de plus en plus la crypto) \u2192 l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque accru porte le Bitcoin alors que les positions institutionnelles deviennent plus agressives \u2192 la faiblesse prolong\u00e9e du yen vers 165 prolonge cette dynamique jusqu\u2019en 2027 si l\u2019\u00e9cart de taux se maintient.<\/p>\r\n<p>La pr\u00e9vision actualis\u00e9e de Goldman suppose implicitement que la Banque du Japon poursuivra son approche de normalisation sans pr\u00e9cipitation, maintenant le co\u00fbt du financement ancr\u00e9 pr\u00e8s de z\u00e9ro.<\/p>\r\n<p>\u00c0 l\u2019inverse, le sc\u00e9nario baissier est son image miroir et s\u2019active tr\u00e8s vite. Les autorit\u00e9s japonaises sont intervenues \u00e0 hauteur de plus de 11 000 milliards de yens entre avril et mai 2026 pour tenter d\u2019enrayer la chute de leur devise, avec un effet durable limit\u00e9 sur la tendance g\u00e9n\u00e9rale \u00e0 la d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation.<\/p>\r\n<p>Toutefois, cette activit\u00e9 d\u2019intervention signale un seuil de douleur. \u00c0 mesure que l\u2019USD\/JPY approche de la zone 163\u2013164 et pousse vers l\u2019objectif de 165 fix\u00e9 par Goldman, la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une nouvelle intervention, ou plus radicalement d\u2019une hausse surprise des taux de la BoJ, augmente \u00e0 chaque yen gagn\u00e9.<\/p>\r\n<p>Lorsque la BoJ a relev\u00e9 ses taux en ao\u00fbt 2024, le Bitcoin et les actions ont chut\u00e9 de concert suite \u00e0 la cl\u00f4ture rapide des positions \u00e0 levier. Le Bitcoin avait alors perdu environ 18 %, l\u2019Ethereum pr\u00e8s de 26 %, et l\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat ouvert net sur les cryptos s\u2019\u00e9tait r\u00e9duit de 13 milliards de dollars suite au d\u00e9bouclage massif du levier libell\u00e9 en yens.<\/p>\r\n<p><\/p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">JUST IN: \ud83c\uddef\ud83c\uddf5 Hedge funds are now the most bearish on the Japanese yen since 2007, with nearly 138,000 net short contracts.<br><br>The yen is trading near its weakest level in decades, and Goldman Sachs now targets 165 per dollar.<br><br>The trade is becoming extremely crowded.<br><br>Everyone is\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ONwJyqfWjO\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/ONwJyqfWjO<\/a><\/p>\u2014 CryptoNewspage (@CryptoNewspageX) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CryptoNewspageX\/status\/2074539133742031004?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">July 7, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\r\n<p>Les fonds sp\u00e9culatifs d\u00e9tiennent actuellement leurs <a href=\"https:\/\/www.xtb.com\/cy\/market-analysis\/news-and-research\/goldman-sachs-turns-even-more-bearish-on-yen\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">plus importantes positions courtes nettes<\/a> sur le yen depuis huit ans. Un nombre croissant d\u2019acteurs du march\u00e9 consid\u00e8rent d\u00e9sormais la vente \u00e0 d\u00e9couvert du yen comme l\u2019une des positions les plus encombr\u00e9es (crowded trades) sur les march\u00e9s mondiaux des devises.<\/p>\r\n<p>Plus une position est encombr\u00e9e, plus son d\u00e9bouclage forc\u00e9 est violent. Chaque participant tentant de sortir simultan\u00e9ment amplifie le rebond du yen et les appels de marge en cascade. Le Bitcoin, cot\u00e9 24h\/24 avec une forte exposition aux produits d\u00e9riv\u00e9s, est pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment l\u2019actif qui absorbe la premi\u00e8re vague de ces ventes forc\u00e9es.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Goldman Sachs vise 165 pour le USD\/JPY. D\u00e9couvrez comment la durabilit\u00e9 du carry trade du yen influence la liquidit\u00e9 et le prix du Bitcoin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":158,"featured_media":19036,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19038","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin et Yen : Goldman Sachs pr\u00e9voit une hausse du USD\/JPY<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"La banque projette d\u00e9sormais le yen japonais \u00e0 162 pour un dollar d&#039;ici trois mois, 163 d&#039;ici six mois et 165 d&#039;ici un an\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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