{"id":18712,"date":"2026-07-08T18:15:27","date_gmt":"2026-07-08T18:15:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=18712"},"modified":"2026-07-07T14:17:40","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T14:17:40","slug":"bitcoin-et-yen-goldman-sachs-prevoit-une-hausse-du-usd-jpy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-et-yen-goldman-sachs-prevoit-une-hausse-du-usd-jpy\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin et Yen : Goldman Sachs pr\u00e9voit une hausse du USD\/JPY"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Goldman Sachs a nettement revu \u00e0 la hausse ses pr\u00e9visions pour la paire USD\/JPY le 6 juillet, projetant le yen japonais \u00e0 162 par dollar d\u2019ici trois mois, 163 d\u2019ici six mois et 165 d\u2019ici 12 mois.<\/p>\r\n<p>Ces nouveaux objectifs, en hausse par rapport aux pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes cibles de 160, 158 et 155, s\u2019accompagnent d\u2019une d\u00e9claration forte : le <strong>carry trade sur le yen<\/strong> est jug\u00e9 structurellement durable.<\/p>\r\n<p>La banque balaie ainsi l\u2019intervention record du Japon de 11,7 billions de yens (~71,9 milliards de dollars) en avril et mai, la qualifiant de simple frein temporaire \u00e0 une tendance de fond enracin\u00e9e.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Karen Reichgott Fishman, strat\u00e8ge chez Goldman Sachs, a cit\u00e9 les rendements \u00e9lev\u00e9s des bons du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain, le faible risque de r\u00e9cession et la posture de hausse des taux tr\u00e8s graduelle de la <strong>Banque du Japon (BoJ)<\/strong> comme les piliers maintenant ce montage financier en vie.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pour le <strong>Bitcoin<\/strong>, cette analyse comporte deux implications contradictoires et simultan\u00e9es. D\u2019un c\u00f4t\u00e9, la persistance du carry trade signifie que l\u2019effet de levier mondial bon march\u00e9 continue d\u2019alimenter les actifs risqu\u00e9s, ce qui soutient historiquement l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque sur le march\u00e9 crypto.<\/p>\r\n<p>De l\u2019autre, la trajectoire pr\u00e9vue par Goldman place le USD\/JPY directement dans la zone des 163\u2013164, o\u00f9 le risque d\u2019intervention de la BoJ augmente brutalement. Un d\u00e9bouclage soudain du carry trade \u00e0 ce niveau frapperait les positions crypto avec la m\u00eame force que les autres classes d\u2019actifs \u00e0 b\u00eata \u00e9lev\u00e9, mais de mani\u00e8re plus rapide et violente en raison de la cotation en continu des cryptomonnaies.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Japanese Yen will collapse to 165 against the U.S. Dollar, its weakest level since 1986, warns Goldman Sachs \ud83d\udea8 \ud83d\udea8 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Z1yqLRwpeP\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/Z1yqLRwpeP<\/a><\/p>\u2014 Barchart (@Barchart) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Barchart\/status\/2074021286368477393?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">July 6, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le march\u00e9 doit d\u00e9sormais d\u00e9terminer si le vent arri\u00e8re de liquidit\u00e9 apport\u00e9 par le carry trade soutiendra l\u2019\u00e9lan haussier du Bitcoin assez longtemps, ou si le seuil d\u2019intervention imminent transformera la faiblesse du yen en d\u00e9clencheur de la prochaine vague de d\u00e9sendettement (deleveraging) trans-actifs.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span id=\"revision_des_previsions_usdjpy_et_mecanisme_du_carry_trade_ce_que_lobjectif_de_165_revele_sur_lexposition_macro_du_bitcoin\">R\u00e9vision des pr\u00e9visions USD\/JPY et m\u00e9canisme du Carry Trade : ce que l\u2019objectif de 165 r\u00e9v\u00e8le sur l\u2019exposition macro du Bitcoin<\/span><\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le contexte donne une dimension particuli\u00e8re \u00e0 cette pr\u00e9vision brute. La r\u00e9vision \u00e0 la hausse de Goldman n\u2019est pas un ajustement marginal ; en faisant passer sa cible \u00e0 12 mois de 155 \u00e0 165, la banque \u00e9limine les derniers restes de toute th\u00e8se de reprise du yen \u00e0 court terme. Cela signale que les positions institutionnelles sur le carry trade en yens devraient s\u2019intensifier plut\u00f4t que de se d\u00e9nouer.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La m\u00e9canique du carry trade sur le yen est directe : les investisseurs empruntent en yens \u00e0 faible taux, les convertissent en dollars ou autres devises \u00e0 haut rendement, et d\u00e9ploient ces capitaux dans des actifs offrant des retours sup\u00e9rieurs.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avec une BoJ qui ne rel\u00e8ve ses taux que tr\u00e8s progressivement et des rendements am\u00e9ricains qui restent \u00e9lev\u00e9s, le diff\u00e9rentiel de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat qui finance l\u2019op\u00e9ration demeure large. Goldman a explicitement d\u00e9clar\u00e9 continuer de privil\u00e9gier le yen comme monnaie de financement pour les investissements dans les march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents offrant des rendements \u00e9lev\u00e9s, confirmant que l\u2019app\u00e9tit institutionnel pour ce trade ne faiblit pas.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Goldman Sachs has turned more bearish on the Japanese yen, saying that the currency is likely to weaken further against the U.S. dollar and a Japanese market intervention to support the currency will only have a temporary impact.<br><br>The Wall Street bank raised its forecasts for the\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CkWNdmiwP4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/CkWNdmiwP4<\/a><\/p>\u2014 CNBC (@CNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CNBC\/status\/2074025605046190090?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">July 6, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le chemin de transmission entre un carry trade actif et la performance macro du Bitcoin se d\u00e9compose ainsi : financement bon march\u00e9 en yens \u2192 expansion du levier mondial \u2192 hausse de l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque \u2192 flux de capitaux accrus vers les cryptos et actifs risqu\u00e9s \u2192 prix du BTC soutenus ou en hausse.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il s\u2019agit du canal haussier, et il est bien r\u00e9el. Lorsque les conditions de liquidit\u00e9 mondiale sont souples et que les carry trades se d\u00e9veloppent, le secteur crypto participe historiquement au m\u00eame environnement de prise de risque qui porte les actions et les mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le canal baissier, lui, fonctionne en sens inverse et se d\u00e9place plus vite. \u00c0 mesure que le USD\/JPY approche de la zone 163\u2013164, la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une intervention japonaise grimpe en fl\u00e8che, un seuil \u00e9galement soulign\u00e9 par les strat\u00e8ges de Goldman. Le minist\u00e8re japonais des Finances a d\u00e9j\u00e0 prouv\u00e9 sa d\u00e9termination en intervenant lorsque le USD\/JPY se situait aux alentours de 157,99, 159,45, 160,17 et 161,76. Une intervention soudaine et non annonc\u00e9e \u2014 Goldman notant que les autorit\u00e9s pourraient cesser les avertissements verbaux avant d\u2019agir \u2014 peut faire chuter le USD\/JPY de plusieurs yens en quelques heures.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un tel mouvement force un d\u00e9bouclage rapide des positions de carry trade, resserrant les conditions financi\u00e8res mondiales et d\u00e9clenchant un deleveraging g\u00e9n\u00e9ral. Le march\u00e9 crypto, hautement endett\u00e9 et ouvert 24h\/24, est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement le premier point de liquidation. Un \u00e9pisode comparable de d\u00e9bouclage de carry trade en 2025 avait entra\u00een\u00e9 une chute du Bitcoin d\u2019environ 18 % lors d\u2019un seul \u00e9v\u00e9nement.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019analyse de Goldman, estimant que l\u2019effort d\u2019intervention de 11,7 billions de yens n\u2019a produit qu\u2019un ralentissement temporaire avant la reprise de la hausse du USD\/JPY, est exacte. Cependant, cela signifie aussi que chaque approche de la zone 163\u2013164 constitue un risque de d\u00e9tonation imm\u00e9diat. Selon les donn\u00e9es d\u2019InvestingLive, les positions courtes des hedge funds sur le yen sont actuellement \u00e0 leur plus haut niveau depuis 2017. Plus ce trade est encombr\u00e9, plus le d\u00e9bouclage forc\u00e9 risque d\u2019\u00eatre violent.<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Goldman Sachs rel\u00e8ve ses pr\u00e9visions USD\/JPY \u00e0 165. D\u00e9couvrez l&rsquo;impact de la durabilit\u00e9 du carry trade du yen sur la liquidit\u00e9 du Bitcoin et des cryptos.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":158,"featured_media":18710,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18712","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin et Yen : Goldman Sachs pr\u00e9voit une hausse du USD\/JPY<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Goldman Sachs a revu \u00e0 la hausse ses pr\u00e9visions pour la paire USD\/JPY le 6 juillet, projetant le yen japonais \u00e0 162 par dollar d&#039;ici 3 mois\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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