{"id":18596,"date":"2026-07-01T08:10:22","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T08:10:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=18596"},"modified":"2026-06-29T15:19:51","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T15:19:51","slug":"bitcoin-samson-mow-affirme-que-le-bottom-est-deja-atteint","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-samson-mow-affirme-que-le-bottom-est-deja-atteint\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin : Samson Mow affirme que le bottom est d\u00e9j\u00e0 atteint"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans l\u2019actualit\u00e9 du Bitcoin aujourd\u2019hui, le PDG de Jan3, Samson Mow, a <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Excellion\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">d\u00e9clar\u00e9 sur X<\/a> le 29 juin 2026 que le point bas (bottom) du BTC est d\u00e9finitivement derri\u00e8re nous.<\/p>\r\n<p>Cette affirmation intervient alors que le cours du Bitcoin oscille autour de 59 900 $, en baisse d\u2019environ 7 % sur la semaine, et que les sorties de capitaux des ETF Bitcoin au comptant s\u2019appr\u00eatent \u00e0 enregistrer leur pire mois historique avec pr\u00e8s de 4 milliards de dollars de rachats.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La th\u00e8se de Mow est structurelle et non sentimentale : puisque le Bitcoin a atteint un sommet historique 37 jours avant le halving d\u2019avril 2024, il soutient que le cycle traditionnel de quatre ans s\u2019est acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9, entra\u00eenant avec lui une formation pr\u00e9coce du bottom.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La question que le march\u00e9 doit d\u00e9sormais trancher est de savoir si cette th\u00e8se de l\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration tient la route, ou si les indicateurs techniques et on-chain, pointant vers des objectifs baissiers situ\u00e9s entre 40 000 $ et 55 000 $, sont plus proches de la r\u00e9alit\u00e9.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span id=\"bitcoin_aujourdhui_la_these_du_cycle_accelere_de_mow_et_les_dynamiques_du_halving\">Bitcoin aujourd\u2019hui : La th\u00e8se du cycle acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9 de Mow et les dynamiques du halving<\/span><\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019argument de Mow repose sur une anomalie v\u00e9rifiable dans l\u2019analyse des cycles : lors de chaque halving pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, le sommet historique du Bitcoin survenait bien apr\u00e8s l\u2019\u00e9v\u00e9nement de r\u00e9duction de l\u2019offre, et non avant.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le halving d\u2019avril 2024 a rompu ce sch\u00e9ma de mani\u00e8re d\u00e9cisive, le BTC ayant atteint son pic pr\u00e9-halving 37 jours \u00e0 l\u2019avance. Le raisonnement de Mow est le suivant : timing de pic anormal \u2192 compression du cycle \u2192 bottom d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9tabli \u2192 d\u00e9but de la prochaine phase haussi\u00e8re.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">I find it incredibly interesting how some people are so certain that the bottom is coming in 4 months because \u201ccycles.\u201d But we had an ATH 37 days before the halving, so it would seem even if you believe in cycles you should reason out the cycles accelerated. The bottom is in.<\/p>\u2014 Samson Mow (@Excellion) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Excellion\/status\/2071084649216909578?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">June 28, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mow, ancien directeur de la strat\u00e9gie chez Blockstream (fond\u00e9 par Adam Back) et architecte de la strat\u00e9gie Bitcoin du Salvador, est connu pour sa pr\u00e9diction d\u2019un BTC \u00e0 1 million de dollars, un objectif qu\u2019il ne consid\u00e8re pas comme un plafond mais comme une \u00e9tape interm\u00e9diaire. Ses mod\u00e8les internes indiqueraient une trajectoire approchant les 1,33 million de dollars d\u2019ici 2026, un chiffre qui, selon lui, repr\u00e9sente la v\u00e9ritable phase haussi\u00e8re qui ne s\u2019est pas encore mat\u00e9rialis\u00e9e.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans cette perspective, l\u2019action actuelle des prix autour de 60 000 $ serait moins une confirmation de bottom qu\u2019une rampe de lancement confondue \u00e0 tort avec un crat\u00e8re.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La dimension institutionnelle soutient en partie sa th\u00e8se. Le lancement des ETF Bitcoin au comptant aux \u00c9tats-Unis en janvier 2024 a introduit des flux acheteurs persistants sans \u00e9quivalent dans les cycles pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Plusieurs bureaux de recherche ont averti que les mod\u00e8les historiques de baisse post-halving pourraient syst\u00e9matiquement sous-estimer les niveaux de support lorsque l\u2019accumulation institutionnelle devient une force structurelle continue plut\u00f4t qu\u2019un \u00e9v\u00e9nement sp\u00e9culatif de d\u00e9tail sporadique. Ce contexte ne confirme pas l\u2019appel de Mow sur le bottom, mais il complexifie l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se d\u2019un test profond des supports selon les lignes classiques du cycle.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span id=\"desaccords_entre_thielen_hayes_et_van_straten_un_ecart_de_15_000_dollars\">D\u00e9saccords entre Thielen, Hayes et Van Straten : un \u00e9cart de 15 000 dollars<\/span><\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le contrepoint \u00e0 la vision de Mow n\u2019est pas monolithique ; il s\u2019agit d\u2019un \u00e9ventail de cibles chiffr\u00e9es sugg\u00e9rant collectivement que le bottom du Bitcoin n\u2019a pas encore \u00e9t\u00e9 atteint.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Markus Thielen, fondateur de 10x Research, place le plancher \u00e0 55 000 $, avec une fen\u00eatre de point bas situ\u00e9e entre ao\u00fbt et octobre 2026. Son cadre d\u2019analyse s\u2019appuie sur le timing macro\u00e9conomique et les donn\u00e9es de positionnement des cycles plut\u00f4t que sur la seule th\u00e9orie du halving, ce qui rend sa pr\u00e9vision moins d\u00e9pendante du d\u00e9bat sur l\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration du cycle pr\u00f4n\u00e9 par Mow.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Arthur Hayes, cofondateur de BitMEX, est la voix la plus pessimiste dans le d\u00e9bat actuel. Hayes pr\u00e9voit que le Bitcoin atteindra son bottom autour de 40 000 $ au cours des six prochains mois, un pronostic qui implique une baisse suppl\u00e9mentaire d\u2019environ 33 % par rapport aux niveaux actuels.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Son approche macro-sceptique traite le BTC comme un actif \u00e0 risque \u00e0 b\u00eata \u00e9lev\u00e9, restant expos\u00e9 au durcissement des conditions financi\u00e8res mondiales. Cette vision rejoint les commentaires de Peter Schiff, d\u00e9fenseur de l\u2019or, qui a publiquement balay\u00e9 les annonces de bottom, les qualifiant de v\u0153ux pieux compte tenu de la corr\u00e9lation persistante du Bitcoin avec le risque sp\u00e9culatif des actions.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">I anticipate another leg lower in Bitcoin between July 1 and July 10, with a move towards the realized price around 53k. <br><br>My bias is that Bitcoin will front run the \"October bottom\", just as it front ran the April 2024 halving.<br> <br>The market consensus seems to be 40k October. 10\u2026<\/p>\u2014 James Van Straten (@btcjvs) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/btcjvs\/status\/2070522632542281973?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">June 26, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">James Van Straten, analyste senior chez CoinDesk, souligne l\u2019indicateur structurel le plus significatif : lors de chaque march\u00e9 baissier majeur depuis 2011, le Bitcoin a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9chang\u00e9 sous son \u00ab prix r\u00e9alis\u00e9 \u00bb avant d\u2019\u00e9tablir un bottom de cycle, malgr\u00e9 les nouvelles actuelles.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ce seuil n\u2019a pas encore \u00e9t\u00e9 franchi dans le cycle actuel. Van Straten a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que \u00ab alors que le bitcoin teste sa moyenne mobile sur 200 semaines, les donn\u00e9es on-chain sugg\u00e8rent que la zone des 50 000 $ \u00e0 54 000 $ pourrait devenir le prochain champ de bataille cl\u00e9 \u00bb, ajoutant que \u00ab jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, le bitcoin n\u2019est pas tomb\u00e9 sous ce niveau dans le cycle actuel \u00bb, laissant ouverte la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une baisse suppl\u00e9mentaire pour compl\u00e9ter le sch\u00e9ma historique.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le plancher du prix r\u00e9alis\u00e9 et la <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/news\/bitcoin-200-week-buy-signal-kraken\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">moyenne mobile sur 200 semaines<\/a> d\u00e9finissent ensemble la zone o\u00f9 chaque cycle pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent a trouv\u00e9 son point bas absolu.<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Samson Mow annonce que le bottom du Bitcoin est derri\u00e8re nous, malgr\u00e9 les pr\u00e9visions baissi\u00e8res de Hayes et Thielen \u00e0 40 000 $. Analyse du cycle acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":158,"featured_media":18593,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin : Samson Mow affirme que le bottom est d\u00e9j\u00e0 atteint<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le PDG de Jan3, Samson Mow, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 sur X le 29 juin 2026 que le point bas (bottom) du BTC est d\u00e9finitivement derri\u00e8re nous.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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