{"id":18490,"date":"2026-06-22T11:23:10","date_gmt":"2026-06-22T11:23:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=18490"},"modified":"2026-06-22T08:26:31","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T08:26:31","slug":"goldman-sachs-sabre-lor-quel-impact-pour-le-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/goldman-sachs-sabre-lor-quel-impact-pour-le-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman Sachs sabre l&rsquo;or : quel impact pour le Bitcoin ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Goldman Sachs a r\u00e9duit son objectif de prix pour l\u2019or de 500 $, le ramenant \u00e0 4 900 $ <a href=\"https:\/\/thedarksideoftheboom.substack.com\/p\/goldman-cuts-gold-forecast-as-the\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">par once<\/a> au 19 juin 2026, revenant sur sa pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente pr\u00e9vision de 5 400 $. La banque a \u00e9galement abandonn\u00e9 sa th\u00e8se de baisse des taux par la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale, qui soutenait l\u2019ensemble de ses perspectives haussi\u00e8res sur les mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, alors que l\u2019or s\u2019\u00e9change actuellement autour des 4 300 $. De son c\u00f4t\u00e9, le Bitcoin navigue \u00e0 travers l\u2019un des points d\u2019inflexion macro\u00e9conomiques les plus cruciaux de ce cycle.<\/p>\r\n<p>Ce d\u00e9classement n\u2019est pas un simple ajustement technique. L\u2019\u00e9quipe des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res de Goldman avait progressivement relev\u00e9 ses pr\u00e9visions tout au long de la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2025 et jusqu\u2019en janvier 2026, s\u2019appuyant sur les achats structurels des banques centrales et sur un assouplissement attendu de 100 points de base de la Fed d\u2019ici la mi-2026.<\/p>\r\n<p>Avec une Fed d\u00e9sormais pressentie pour maintenir ses taux inchang\u00e9s jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2026, le pilier principal de cette th\u00e8se s\u2019est effondr\u00e9, entra\u00eenant des implications qui d\u00e9passent largement le seul march\u00e9 de l\u2019or.<\/p>\r\n<p><\/p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Fed\u2019s new hawkish reality just forced Goldman Sachs to slash its gold forecast by $500 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/DQwpfYmBlN\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/t.co\/DQwpfYmBlN<\/a><\/p>\u2014 MarketWatch (@MarketWatch) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/MarketWatch\/status\/2067913731309285781?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">June 19, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\r\n<h2><span id=\"revision_de_goldman_sachs_ce_que_cache_la_baisse_de_500_sur_la_these_de_la_fed\">R\u00e9vision de Goldman Sachs : ce que cache la baisse de 500 $ sur la th\u00e8se de la Fed<\/span><\/h2>\r\n<p>Le cadre haussier initial de Goldman reposait sur trois piliers structurels : des baisses de taux de la Fed totalisant environ 100 points de base d\u2019ici mi-2026 pour compresser les rendements r\u00e9els et stimuler les flux vers les ETF or en Occident ; des achats structurels des banques centrales \u00e0 hauteur de 760 tonnes par an (soit presque le double de la norme pr\u00e9-2022) ; et une diversification des portefeuilles priv\u00e9s vers l\u2019or comme protection contre la d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation du dollar. Ces trois facteurs devaient agir simultan\u00e9ment.<\/p>\r\n<p>Le pilier des baisses de taux \u00e9tait celui qui contribuait le plus directement aux projections d\u2019entr\u00e9es de capitaux dans les ETF, estim\u00e9es par la banque \u00e0 environ 360 tonnes pour 2026. Lorsque la Fed a signal\u00e9 une posture restrictive prolong\u00e9e (\u00ab higher-for-longer \u00bb), l\u2019\u00e9quipe de Daan Struyven chez Goldman Sachs a recalibr\u00e9 ces pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 la baisse, entra\u00eenant la r\u00e9duction de l\u2019objectif de prix.<\/p>\r\n<p><\/p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Goldman cuts gold target by $500 \u2192 $4,900 (from $5,400)<br>Reason: Fed no longer seen cutting rates in 2026 \u2014 Warsh's hawkish debut this week<br>Goldman: every 50bps of cuts = ~$120\/oz support | removed half-point of easing from model<br>Still implies gains in H2 2026 \u2014 just smaller |\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/v2v32Y7mmc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/v2v32Y7mmc<\/a><\/p>\u2014 Line Avenue (@xipixamamy) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/xipixamamy\/status\/2067890214463275186?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">June 19, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\r\n<p>La banque, qui d\u00e9crivait auparavant le rallye comme port\u00e9 par des \u00ab achats structurels et persistants \u00bb avec un potentiel de hausse vers 4 900 $, a d\u00e9sormais invers\u00e9 son discours.<\/p>\r\n<p>Si le pilier des banques centrales reste intact, il s\u2019av\u00e8re insuffisant. Les estimations mises \u00e0 jour pour 2026 pr\u00e9voient des achats mensuels de 60 tonnes, contre 80 tonnes en 2025, alors que les gestionnaires de r\u00e9serves des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents continuent de se diversifier hors des actifs libell\u00e9s en dollars.<\/p>\r\n<p>Cette demande structurelle offre un plancher au march\u00e9. Le sc\u00e9nario pessimiste de Goldman place l\u2019or \u00e0 4 400 $ si la Fed reprenait ses hausses de taux de mani\u00e8re inattendue, mais elle ne peut compenser \u00e0 elle seule la perte de dynamisme des ETF occidentaux, tr\u00e8s sensibles aux taux.<\/p>\r\n<h2><span id=\"ce_que_labsence_de_baisse_des_taux_signifie_reellement_pour_le_bitcoin\">Ce que l\u2019absence de baisse des taux signifie r\u00e9ellement pour le Bitcoin<\/span><\/h2>\r\n<p>Le m\u00e9canisme de transmission d\u2019un maintien des taux de la Fed vers le Bitcoin passe par trois canaux. Premi\u00e8rement, des rendements r\u00e9els \u00e9lev\u00e9s rendent les instruments de tr\u00e9sorerie en dollars plus comp\u00e9titifs face aux actifs ne g\u00e9n\u00e9rant pas de rendement, une dynamique qui p\u00e8se simultan\u00e9ment sur l\u2019or et le Bitcoin. Deuxi\u00e8mement, un environnement de dollar fort, soutenu par une Fed restrictive, corr\u00e8le historiquement avec une baisse de l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque sur les actifs sp\u00e9culatifs.<\/p>\r\n<p>Enfin, et c\u2019est le point le plus direct, les flux vers les ETF Bitcoin ont \u00e9t\u00e9 en partie aliment\u00e9s par le m\u00eame r\u00e9cit macro\u00e9conomique que celui de l\u2019or : la chute des rendements r\u00e9els et l\u2019affaiblissement du dollar comme catalyseurs d\u2019une r\u00e9allocation institutionnelle vers des r\u00e9serves de valeur alternatives.<\/p>\r\n<figure id=\"attachment_34641\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"width: 750px\">\r\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2026\/06\/content-img-1-40.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/figure>\r\n\r\n<figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34641\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CMEGroup<\/a><\/figcaption>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n<p>Les flux des ETF Bitcoin sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 sensibles \u00e0 ce calcul des taux. Des analyses pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes ont montr\u00e9 comment la <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/news\/btc-etf-news-outflows-liquidity-trap-rebound\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dynamique des sorties d\u2019ETF et les d\u00e9fis de liquidit\u00e9 li\u00e9s \u00e0 des taux \u00e9lev\u00e9s<\/a> ont cr\u00e9\u00e9 une pression de rachat soutenue lors des pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes p\u00e9riodes de pause de la Fed. Une Fed qui resterait immobile jusqu\u2019en d\u00e9cembre 2026 prolonge ce vent contraire pour au moins deux cycles suppl\u00e9mentaires du FOMC.<\/p>\r\n<p>Le sc\u00e9nario catastrophe de Goldman pour l\u2019or \u2014 une chute \u00e0 4 400 $ d\u00e9clench\u00e9e par une hausse des taux \u2014 pr\u00e9sente les cons\u00e9quences les plus graves pour la crypto. Une reprise du resserrement mon\u00e9taire signalerait une contraction de la liquidit\u00e9 qui, historiquement, draine les capitaux sp\u00e9culatifs des actifs num\u00e9riques avant m\u00eame de toucher les valeurs refuges traditionnelles. Si ce sc\u00e9nario n\u2019est pas l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se de base de Goldman, la banque le mentionne explicitement comme un risque extr\u00eame dans sa note de d\u00e9classement.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Goldman Sachs r\u00e9duit son objectif sur l&rsquo;or de 500 $. D\u00e9couvrez pourquoi le maintien des taux de la Fed menace aussi la dynamique du Bitcoin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":158,"featured_media":18488,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18490","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Goldman Sachs sabre l&#039;or : quel impact pour le Bitcoin ?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Goldman Sachs a r\u00e9duit son objectif de prix pour l&#039;or de 500$, le ramenant \u00e0 4900$ par once au 19 juin, revenant sur sa pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente pr\u00e9vision\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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