{"id":18474,"date":"2026-06-19T18:29:33","date_gmt":"2026-06-19T18:29:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=18474"},"modified":"2026-06-18T09:52:24","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T09:52:24","slug":"bitcoin-50-de-loffre-en-perte-un-signal-de-bottom-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-50-de-loffre-en-perte-un-signal-de-bottom-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin : 50 % de l&rsquo;offre en perte, un signal de bottom ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Selon les donn\u00e9es on-chain de <a href=\"https:\/\/glassnode.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Glassnode<\/a>, plus de la moiti\u00e9 des Bitcoins en circulation, soit environ 10,5 millions de BTC, sont d\u00e9sormais d\u00e9tenus en perte latente. Ce seuil critique a \u00e9t\u00e9 franchi le 5 juin 2026, lors d\u2019une s\u00e9ance o\u00f9 le prix du BTC a touch\u00e9 un plus bas annuel de 59 100 $, prolongeant une baisse de 26,8 % sur 30 jours et un repli de 19,3 % sur une semaine.<\/p>\r\n<p>Cette rupture n\u2019est pas une simple actualit\u00e9 quotidienne, c\u2019est un signal majeur. Le Bitcoin est \u00e9galement pass\u00e9 sous sa moyenne mobile de 200 semaines pour la premi\u00e8re fois depuis juin 2022. Ce support structurel \u00e0 long terme avait pourtant tenu durant chaque correction de la reprise post-2022. La derni\u00e8re fois que ces deux conditions ont co\u00efncid\u00e9, le march\u00e9 approchait d\u2019un point bas g\u00e9n\u00e9rationnel.<\/p>\r\n<p><\/p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">HOT TOPIC: Half of all bitcoin:native  is underwater \ud83e\ude78<br><br>10.5M coins in loss vs 9.8M in profit, a first this cycle. The same crossover appeared at every major bottom in history. Bulls say the floor is forming now. On-chain models point to $50K first.<br><br>Buy or wait?\ud83d\udc47\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/srhUAmftnH\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/srhUAmftnH<\/a><\/p>\u2014 CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CoinMarketCap\/status\/2064693950829695277?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">June 10, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\r\n<p>La question qui se pose d\u00e9sormais est de savoir si ce signal historique conserve son importance dans un march\u00e9 structurellement modifi\u00e9 par les ETF institutionnels, la rotation des capitaux vers l\u2019IA et une R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale h\u00e9sitante \u00e0 baisser ses taux, ou si le mod\u00e8le se brisera au moment o\u00f9 il est le plus attendu.<\/p>\r\n<h2><span id=\"bitcoin_ce_que_revele_reellement_le_seuil_de_52_de_loffre_en_perte\">Bitcoin : ce que r\u00e9v\u00e8le r\u00e9ellement le seuil de 52 % de l\u2019offre en perte<\/span><\/h2>\r\n<p>Le contexte donne tout son sens \u00e0 ce chiffre brut. Lorsque la m\u00e9trique de l\u2019offre en perte de Glassnode d\u00e9passe les 50 %, cela signifie que la majorit\u00e9 des pi\u00e8ces en circulation sont d\u00e9tenues par des adresses dont le prix d\u2019acquisition est sup\u00e9rieur au prix actuel du march\u00e9. Chaque d\u00e9tenteur est confront\u00e9 \u00e0 un choix binaire : encaisser la douleur ou la cristalliser en vendant.<\/p>\r\n<p>Cette dynamique influence la pression de vente d\u2019une mani\u00e8re sp\u00e9cifique. Les d\u00e9tenteurs fortement en perte ont tendance \u00e0 conserver leurs actifs plut\u00f4t qu\u2019\u00e0 vendre, car la vente verrouille une perte qu\u2019une dose de patience pourrait finir par effacer. Par cons\u00e9quent, cet indicateur marque souvent un point de peur maximale mais de vente marginale minimale : les mains faibles ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9limin\u00e9es, et les d\u00e9tenteurs restants sont soit des acheteurs de conviction \u00e0 long terme, soit des adresses trop lourdement impact\u00e9es pour agir rationnellement.<\/p>\r\n<p><\/p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin\u2019s supply in loss just surged from 34% to over 50% in a single month.<br><br>That 50\/50 split has marked every major bear market bottom since 2010.<br><br>The question isn\u2019t whether we\u2019re in capitulation, it\u2019s whether the floor holds or we get one final flush\ud83d\udc47\ud83c\udffc <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/uaGa9WPJZZ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/uaGa9WPJZZ<\/a><\/p>\u2014 On-Chain Mind (@OnChainMind) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/OnChainMind\/status\/2064369268423078102?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">June 9, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\r\n<p>Le NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit\/Loss) a bascul\u00e9 dans ce que Glassnode qualifie de zone \u00ab Espoir-Crainte \u00bb, sous le niveau z\u00e9ro, sans toutefois atteindre la capitulation totale. Le prix r\u00e9alis\u00e9, qui repr\u00e9sente le co\u00fbt de base moyen on-chain de toutes les pi\u00e8ces en circulation, se situe autour de 54 000 $. Ce chiffre constitue le prochain ancrage structurel majeur sous les niveaux actuels et le seuil \u00e0 partir duquel le d\u00e9tenteur moyen repassera en profit lors d\u2019une \u00e9ventuelle reprise.<\/p>\r\n<p>Les donn\u00e9es de volume de transactions de Darkfrost, contributeur chez CryptoQuant, apportent un signal compl\u00e9mentaire : le nombre moyen de transactions mensuelles sur Bitcoin a atteint environ 640 000 (moyenne mobile sur 30 jours), fr\u00f4lant un record historique. Sur X, Darkfrost a d\u00e9crit cette activit\u00e9 comme \u00ab un \u00e9pisode de capitulation et un changement de mains significatif \u00bb, les pi\u00e8ces passant de vendeurs en d\u00e9tresse \u00e0 de nouveaux acheteurs pr\u00eats \u00e0 absorber l\u2019offre aux prix actuels.<\/p>\r\n<h2><span id=\"pourquoi_ce_signal_a_marque_chaque_point_bas_majeur_du_bitcoin\">Pourquoi ce signal a marqu\u00e9 chaque point bas majeur du Bitcoin<\/span><\/h2>\r\n<p>L\u2019historique de ce signal est suffisamment constant pour m\u00e9riter une attention s\u00e9rieuse. La condition d\u2019une offre en perte sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 50 % est apparue lors du creux du march\u00e9 baissier de 2015, pendant la capitulation de fin 2018\/d\u00e9but 2019 quand le Bitcoin est tomb\u00e9 \u00e0 3 100 $, lors du krach COVID de mars 2020 \u00e0 3 800 $, et enfin au point bas du cycle de juin 2022 vers 17 600 $. \u00c0 chaque fois, cette situation a co\u00efncid\u00e9 avec le point bas absolu ou est apparue quelques semaines avant celui-ci.<\/p>\r\n<p>L\u2019analogie avec juin 2022 est particuli\u00e8rement pertinente car c\u2019est la derni\u00e8re fois que le Bitcoin a rompu sa moyenne mobile de 200 semaines, exactement comme aujourd\u2019hui. Cet \u00e9pisode marquait la phase terminale du bear market de 2022. Le Bitcoin avait ensuite touch\u00e9 un fond \u00e0 15 476 $ en novembre 2022 avant d\u2019entamer une reprise soutenue qui a propuls\u00e9 le cours du BTC vers un sommet de cycle au-dessus de 109 000 $.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p>L\u2019analyste on-chain @zerobasezk, tr\u00e8s suivi au sein de la communaut\u00e9 Glassnode, a d\u00e9crit le niveau actuel de l\u2019offre en perte comme \u00ab un seuil qui a historiquement marqu\u00e9 les bas de march\u00e9s baissiers majeurs dans chaque cycle depuis 2011 \u00bb. L\u2019argument structurel est simple : lorsque plus de la moiti\u00e9 des pi\u00e8ces sont sous l\u2019eau, le vendeur marginal est largement \u00e9puis\u00e9. L\u2019offre restante est aux mains de d\u00e9tenteurs de long terme dont le co\u00fbt de base est bien inf\u00e9rieur, et ces derniers ne vendent pas \u00e0 59 100 $.<\/p>\r\n<p><\/p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Supply in loss has surged from around 34% to over 50% in roughly 1 month.<br><br>That is a violent expansion in unrealised losses and exactly the type of structure that appears near capitulation floors. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NTicdkf2bs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/NTicdkf2bs<\/a><\/p>\u2014 On-Chain Mind (@OnChainMind) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/OnChainMind\/status\/2064689927413977588?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">June 10, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\r\n<p>La seule mise en garde concerne le timing. L\u2019analyse de CryptoRank sur les cycles pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents montre que cette condition peut persister de un mois \u00e0 plus d\u2019un an avant que le prix ne se redresse. Le signal identifie la zone d\u2019achat, pas la date exacte du rebond.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Plus de 10,5 millions de BTC sont en perte latente. D\u00e9couvrez pourquoi ce seuil historique de 50 % de l&rsquo;offre signale souvent un point bas de cycle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":158,"featured_media":18472,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18474","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin : 50 % de l&#039;offre en perte, un signal de bottom ?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Selon Glassnode, plus de la moiti\u00e9 des Bitcoins en circulation, soit environ 10,5 millions de BTC, sont d\u00e9sormais d\u00e9tenus en perte latente.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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Belcourt est un passionn\u00e9 de cryptomonnaies et de technologies blockchain depuis plusieurs ann\u00e9es. Titulaire d\u2019un Master en Finance, il a d\u00e9but\u00e9 sa carri\u00e8re en tant qu\u2019analyste financier avant de se sp\u00e9cialiser dans les actifs num\u00e9riques. \u00c0 travers ses articles, il d\u00e9crypte les tendances du march\u00e9, analyse les projets \u00e9mergents et partage des strat\u00e9gies d\u2019investissement adapt\u00e9es aux d\u00e9butants comme aux experts. Son objectif ? Offrir un contenu clair, document\u00e9 et pertinent pour aider chacun \u00e0 mieux comprendre et tirer parti de l\u2019univers des cryptos. 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