{"id":17857,"date":"2026-05-06T11:47:44","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T11:47:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=17857"},"modified":"2026-05-06T15:55:10","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T15:55:10","slug":"les-probabilites-de-la-loi-clarity-sur-polymarket-grimpent-a-68","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/les-probabilites-de-la-loi-clarity-sur-polymarket-grimpent-a-68\/","title":{"rendered":"Les probabilit\u00e9s de la loi CLARITY sur Polymarket grimpent \u00e0 68 % : qu&rsquo;est-ce que cela signifie ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>La probabilit\u00e9 sur Polymarket de voir la <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">loi CLARITY adopt\u00e9e en 2026<\/a> a bondi \u00e0 66 % au 5 mai, enregistrant une hausse de 22 points de pourcentage en quatre jours de trading \u2013 un mouvement port\u00e9 par la finalisation du compromis sur le rendement des stablecoins et les signaux de la commission bancaire du S\u00e9nat indiquant qu\u2019un examen l\u00e9gislatif est imminent.<\/p>\n<p>Il ne s\u2019agit pas d\u2019un simple indicateur de sentiment ; ce sont les bureaux institutionnels qui fixent la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une red\u00e9finition structurelle des comp\u00e9tences entre la CFTC et la SEC au-dessus du seuil o\u00f9 les pipelines de produits et les d\u00e9cisions de conservation sont r\u00e9vis\u00e9s.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-31502 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-06-at-11.49.00.png\" alt=\"The CLARITY Act is edging even closer to being signed into law, with Polymarket odds surging to 66%, up from 58% just yesterday\" width=\"1900\" height=\"1000\"><\/p>\n<p>(<a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">SOURCE : Polymarket<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>\u00c0 66 %, la loi Clarity passe du statut de variable politique \u00e0 celui d\u2019hypoth\u00e8se de planification de base pour les capitaux conformes.<\/p>\n<p>Cela est crucial car c\u2019est pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment le niveau auquel les institutions r\u00e9glement\u00e9es, les gestionnaires d\u2019actifs, les courtiers principaux et les banques d\u00e9positaires commencent \u00e0 ajuster les crit\u00e8res d\u2019\u00e9ligibilit\u00e9 des produits plut\u00f4t que d\u2019attendre l\u2019adoption finale.<\/p>\n<p>Le transfert de supervision de la SEC vers la CFTC inscrit dans le cadre FIT21 reclasserait un large ensemble d\u2019altcoins comme des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res num\u00e9riques (digital commodities), supprimant l\u2019\u00e9p\u00e9e de Damocl\u00e8s du droit des valeurs mobili\u00e8res qui a maintenu les allocateurs institutionnels \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9cart de la majorit\u00e9 du march\u00e9 des 50 principaux jetons.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-31503 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-06-at-11.49.45.png\" alt=\"The CLARITY Act is edging even closer to being signed into law, with Polymarket odds surging to 66%, up from 58% just yesterday\" width=\"2822\" height=\"1272\"><\/p>\n<p>(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/BTCUSD\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">SOURCE : TradingView<\/a>)<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"fit21_et_la_loi_clarity_ce_que_le_changement_de_juridiction_change_reellement\">FIT21 et la loi Clarity : ce que le changement de juridiction change r\u00e9ellement<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>FIT21 introduit un test de d\u00e9centralisation pour classer les actifs num\u00e9riques. Si une blockchain atteint un seuil de d\u00e9centralisation sp\u00e9cifi\u00e9, ses actifs rel\u00e8veraient de la comp\u00e9tence de la CFTC en tant que mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res num\u00e9riques, au lieu de la supervision de la SEC en tant que valeurs mobili\u00e8res.<\/p>\n<p>Cette classification permet aux actifs r\u00e9glement\u00e9s par la CFTC d\u2019\u00eatre cot\u00e9s sur des bourses de mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res et d\u2019\u00eatre utilis\u00e9s dans des produits r\u00e9glement\u00e9s sans enregistrement aupr\u00e8s de la SEC.<\/p>\n<p>Actuellement, les mesures d\u2019ex\u00e9cution de la SEC, en particulier apr\u00e8s les poursuites de 2023 contre Coinbase et Binance, ont cat\u00e9goris\u00e9 la plupart des altcoins comme des valeurs mobili\u00e8res non enregistr\u00e9es, cr\u00e9ant une incertitude qui freine l\u2019adoption institutionnelle au-del\u00e0 du Bitcoin et de l\u2019Ethereum.<\/p>\n<p>FIT21 vise \u00e0 \u00e9tablir un cadre r\u00e9glementaire plus clair et a r\u00e9cemment r\u00e9solu des dispositions litigieuses concernant les rendements des stablecoins, autorisant les r\u00e9compenses li\u00e9es aux activit\u00e9s des utilisateurs tout en interdisant des rendements \u00e9quivalents aux int\u00e9r\u00eats des d\u00e9p\u00f4ts bancaires pour r\u00e9pondre aux pr\u00e9occupations du secteur bancaire.<\/p>\n<p>Suite \u00e0 cette annonce, l\u2019action de Circle a bondi de plus de 20 %, refl\u00e9tant l\u2019importance de cette r\u00e9solution pour son programme USDC. Les r\u00e9gulateurs disposeront d\u2019un an apr\u00e8s l\u2019adoption pour d\u00e9finir les activit\u00e9s \u00e9ligibles.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"ja\" dir=\"ltr\">\u6765\u305f\uff01\u3053\u308c\u306f\u3001\u5b9f\u8cea\u7684\u306a\u8cc7\u91d1\u306e\u89e3\u653e\u3092\u610f\u5473\u3057\u307e\u3059\u306d\u3002\u300c\u6697\u53f7\u8cc7\u7523\u5e02\u5834\u69cb\u9020\u6cd5\u6848\uff08FIT21\uff09\u300d\u3078\u306e\u7f72\u540d\u306f\u3001\u4e8b\u5b9f\u4e0a\u306e\u300c\u30af\u30e9\u30ea\u30c6\u30a3\u6cd5\u6848\u300d\u306e\u6a5f\u80fd\u3092\u5185\u5305\u3057\u3066\u3001\u5b8c\u5168\u306aQFS\u8d77\u52d5\u306b\u3064\u306a\u304c\u308b\u3093\u3058\u3083\u306a\u3044\u304b\u3057\u3089\ud83e\uddd0 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hKp1lwjsJT\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/t.co\/hKp1lwjsJT<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 \u306f\u3061\u307f\u3064 (@b0OubXpfLd3HNEj) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/b0OubXpfLd3HNEj\/status\/2051848184218202378?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">May 6, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"pourquoi_le_positionnement_institutionnel_sur_les_cryptos_evolue_avant_le_vote\">Pourquoi le positionnement institutionnel sur les cryptos \u00e9volue avant le vote<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Les trajectoires des march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction indiquent un repositionnement institutionnel, passant de 46 % le 1er mai \u00e0 64 % le 2 mai, suite au rapport de Punchbowl News sur un accord concernant les stablecoins, pour atteindre 68 % le 5 mai.<\/p>\n<p>Le march\u00e9 de Kalshi pour une loi sur la structure du march\u00e9 crypto en 2026 s\u2019\u00e9change \u00e0 72 %, indiquant un consensus entre les plateformes. Le s\u00e9nateur Tim Scott a signal\u00e9 qu\u2019un vote en commission sur le projet de loi aurait lieu le 1er mai.<\/p>\n<p>Ceci est crucial car le d\u00e9veloppement des pipelines de produits institutionnels prend g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement entre 6 et 12 mois. Des probabilit\u00e9s d\u2019adoption \u00e9lev\u00e9es \u00e0 68 % sugg\u00e8rent que les entreprises envisagent d\u00e9sormais des d\u00e9p\u00f4ts pr\u00e9liminaires.<\/p>\n<p>Summer Mersinger, PDG de la Blockchain Association, a soulign\u00e9 que la r\u00e9solution de la question des rendements de stablecoins ouvre la voie \u00e0 la l\u00e9gislation.<\/p>\n<p>Le Bitcoin a franchi la barre des 82 000 USD dans ce contexte d\u2019optimisme r\u00e9glementaire, refl\u00e9tant un transfert de capitaux du BTC vers des actifs \u00e0 b\u00eata plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 qui pourraient b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier des changements r\u00e9glementaires.<\/p>\n<p>Les flux de capitaux parall\u00e8les soulignent cette tendance, avec l\u2019ETP Bitcoin europ\u00e9en de BlackRock d\u00e9passant 1,1 milliard USD d\u2019actifs sous gestion, d\u00e9montrant une forte demande mondiale pour les produits r\u00e9glement\u00e9s lorsque l\u2019environnement r\u00e9glementaire en permet l\u2019acc\u00e8s.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-31504 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-06-at-11.50.53.png\" alt=\"The CLARITY Act is edging even closer to being signed into law, with Polymarket odds surging to 66%, up from 58% just yesterday\" width=\"2734\" height=\"1438\"><\/p>\n<p>(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinglass.com\/etf\/bitcoin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">SOURCE : CoinGlass<\/a>)<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"eth_sol_ada_ce_que_le_statut_de_matiere_premiere_signifierait_reellement_pour_les_marches_daltcoins\">ETH, SOL, ADA : ce que le statut de mati\u00e8re premi\u00e8re signifierait r\u00e9ellement pour les march\u00e9s d\u2019altcoins<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Le test de d\u00e9centralisation de FIT21 cible principalement les jetons majeurs de couche 1 en proof-of-stake comme Solana, Cardano, Avalanche et, dans une moindre mesure, Polygon.<\/p>\n<p>Le statut implicite de mati\u00e8re premi\u00e8re de l\u2019Ethereum, \u00e9tabli par les approbations d\u2019ETF ETH de la SEC en 2024, obtiendrait une classification formelle sous FIT21, offrant une certitude juridique pour les produits.<\/p>\n<p>Pour SOL et ADA, l\u2019obtention du statut de mati\u00e8re premi\u00e8re \u00e9liminerait les barri\u00e8res de conformit\u00e9 pour les conseillers en investissement enregistr\u00e9s aux \u00c9tats-Unis, qui font actuellement face aux risques de d\u00e9signation comme valeurs mobili\u00e8res par la SEC.<\/p>\n<p>Cette classification par la CFTC permettrait la cr\u00e9ation de contrats \u00e0 terme, autoriserait les d\u00e9positaires \u00e0 les proposer et \u00e9largirait le march\u00e9 des ETF au-del\u00e0 du BTC et de l\u2019ETH, d\u00e9bloquant potentiellement l\u2019acc\u00e8s \u00e0 environ 30 000 milliards USD d\u2019actifs g\u00e9r\u00e9s aux \u00c9tats-Unis.<\/p>\n<p>La th\u00e9orie de l\u2019altseason li\u00e9e \u00e0 FIT21 sugg\u00e8re que les capitaux institutionnels pourraient se d\u00e9placer vers ces altcoins nouvellement class\u00e9s, les traders sp\u00e9culant d\u00e9j\u00e0 sur le calendrier de cette transition.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Les probabilit\u00e9s de la loi FIT21 Clarity atteignent 68 % : les enjeux pour les crypto-actifs<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":158,"featured_media":17854,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17857","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Les probabilit\u00e9s de la loi CLARITY sur Polymarket grimpent \u00e0 68 %<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"La probabilit\u00e9 sur Polymarket de voir la loi CLARITY 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