{"id":16212,"date":"2025-12-04T17:00:32","date_gmt":"2025-12-04T17:00:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=16212"},"modified":"2025-12-04T16:32:49","modified_gmt":"2025-12-04T16:32:49","slug":"strategy-bascule-en-cash-debut-du-bear-market-pour-le-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/strategy-bascule-en-cash-debut-du-bear-market-pour-le-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"Strategy bascule en cash : d\u00e9but du bear market pour le bitcoin"},"content":{"rendered":"

La d\u00e9cision de Strategy de constituer une r\u00e9serve en dollars de 1,44 milliard de dollars est, selon CryptoQuant, un signal que le march\u00e9 du bitcoin entre en phase baissi\u00e8re<\/strong> et pourrait reculer vers une zone de 70 000 \u00e0 55 000 dollars d\u00e8s l\u2019an prochain.<\/p>\n

Strategy change de cap avec une r\u00e9serve g\u00e9ante en dollars<\/span><\/h2>\n

Pour CryptoQuant,<\/a> ce coussin en cash n\u2019est pas un d\u00e9tail comptable. L\u2019analyste on-chain estime que Strategy pr\u00e9pare un sc\u00e9nario o\u00f9 le bitcoin reste sous pression pendant de longs mois. Le lancement de cette r\u00e9serve, financ\u00e9e par une \u00e9mission d\u2019actions, vise \u00e0 couvrir jusqu\u2019\u00e0 24 mois de dividendes et d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eats sans toucher au stock de bitcoin de l\u2019entreprise.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Strategy a lev\u00e9 1,44 milliard de dollars via son programme \u00ab at-the-market \u00bb pour alimenter ce fonds. L\u2019objectif officiel est d\u2019assurer des paiements de dividendes<\/strong> \u00ab stables et ininterrompus \u00bb, m\u00eame si le prix du bitcoin reste loin de ses sommets r\u00e9cents<\/a>, dans un contexte de forte volatilit\u00e9 et de r\u00e9vision \u00e0 la baisse des pr\u00e9visions de r\u00e9sultats.<\/p>\n

En parall\u00e8le, l\u2019entreprise d\u00e9tient environ 650 000 BTC<\/strong>, soit plus de 3 % de l\u2019offre maximale de 21 millions de bitcoins. Cette position rend Strategy \u00e0 la fois tr\u00e8s expos\u00e9e au march\u00e9 et syst\u00e9mique pour le sentiment des investisseurs.<\/p>\n

CryptoQuant y voit une rupture avec le mod\u00e8le 2020\u20132025 de Strategy. Jusqu\u2019ici, la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 utilisait surtout les march\u00e9s actions et la dette convertible<\/strong> pour acheter toujours plus de bitcoin. D\u00e9sormais, une part significative du capital lev\u00e9 va vers un matelas en dollars, signe qu\u2019elle ne consid\u00e8re plus la hausse du bitcoin comme acquise \u00e0 court terme.<\/p>\n

Un march\u00e9 d\u00e9j\u00e0 en mode baissier selon les indicateurs on-chain<\/span><\/h2>\n

Pour Julio Moreno, responsable de la recherche chez CryptoQuant, le march\u00e9 baissier du bitcoin n\u2019est plus une hypoth\u00e8se<\/strong>. Il aurait commenc\u00e9 d\u00e9but novembre, alors que les principaux signaux on-chain, ainsi que les indicateurs techniques agr\u00e9g\u00e9s, sont pass\u00e9s d\u2019un r\u00e9gime de surchauffe haussi\u00e8re \u00e0 un environnement de risque. Le Bull Score Index de CryptoQuant est tomb\u00e9 \u00e0 z\u00e9ro<\/strong>, son niveau le plus pessimiste depuis janvier 2022.<\/p>\n

\"Cours<\/p>\n

Si la pression vendeuse persiste, la principale crypto pourrait \u00e9voluer entre 70 000 et 55 000 dollars.<\/strong> Cette derni\u00e8re borne repr\u00e9sentant le sc\u00e9nario le plus n\u00e9gatif<\/a> \u00e9voqu\u00e9 par Moreno. Ce n\u2019est pas un crash total, mais un retournement marqu\u00e9 qui casserait les anticipations d\u2019un nouveau cycle vertical imm\u00e9diat.<\/p>\n

Le message implicite est simple. Le narratif du \u00ab number go up \u00bb permanent est remis en cause \u00e0 court terme. Les phases de consolidation, que beaucoup d\u2019investisseurs particuliers avaient fini par oublier, reviennent au centre du jeu.<\/p>\n

Et les grandes poches de capitaux comme Strategy se positionnent d\u00e9sormais comme des gestionnaires de risque, plus que comme des \u00e9vang\u00e9listes du HODL \u00e0 tout prix. La promesse n\u2019est plus seulement de d\u00e9tenir du bitcoin pour toujours, mais de survivre \u00e0 un cycle baissier prolong\u00e9 sans casser la machine.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bitcoin : de l\u2019accumulation agressive \u00e0 une gestion de tr\u00e9sorerie prudente<\/span><\/h2>\n

La lenteur soudaine des achats de bitcoin par Strategy<\/a> confirme ce changement de posture. D\u2019apr\u00e8s CryptoQuant, la cadence d\u2019accumulation est pass\u00e9e d\u2019environ 134 000 BTC par mois fin 2024 \u00e0 9 100 BTC en novembre 2025<\/strong>, puis \u00e0 seulement 135 BTC achet\u00e9s pour le moment en d\u00e9cembre.<\/p>\n

Ce ralentissement ne signifie pas que Strategy abandonne le bitcoin. La soci\u00e9t\u00e9 parle plut\u00f4t d\u2019un mod\u00e8le de double r\u00e9serve. Une r\u00e9serve en BTC au c\u0153ur de sa th\u00e8se de long terme et, d\u00e9sormais, une r\u00e9serve en dollars d\u00e9di\u00e9e aux dividendes et au service de la dette<\/strong>. Autrement dit, le bitcoin reste le c\u0153ur de la strat\u00e9gie, mais le dollar redevient le garde-fou.<\/p>\n

\"Regression<\/p>\n

L\u2019id\u00e9e est de r\u00e9duire le risque de devoir vendre du bitcoin<\/strong> au pire moment, sous la contrainte des march\u00e9s financiers, en cas de baisse prolong\u00e9e du cours ou de fen\u00eatre ferm\u00e9e pour de nouvelles \u00e9missions d\u2019actions. La r\u00e9serve en dollars joue le r\u00f4le de pare-chocs.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dans le m\u00eame esprit, la direction officialise des outils que les maximalistes appr\u00e9cient peu : couverture via d\u00e9riv\u00e9s, ventes s\u00e9lectives dans des sc\u00e9narios extr\u00eames, flexibilit\u00e9 tactique. CryptoQuant souligne que le bitcoin de Strategy n\u2019est plus un bloc intouchable.<\/strong> Pour prot\u00e9ger ce stock, l\u2019entreprise accepte une gestion plus traditionnelle, proche de celle des grandes tr\u00e9soreries cot\u00e9es qui jonglent avec dette, cash et actifs risqu\u00e9s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La d\u00e9cision de Strategy de constituer une r\u00e9serve en dollars de 1,44 milliard de dollars est, selon CryptoQuant, un…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":241,"featured_media":16237,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[15,68],"class_list":["post-16212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-bull-run","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nStrategy passe en dollars et annonce plongeon du bitcoin<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Strategy cr\u00e9e une r\u00e9serve de 1,44 Md$ et anticipe un march\u00e9 baissier du bitcoin, avec un potentiel recul vers 70 000\u201355 000 $.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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