{"id":16169,"date":"2025-12-03T18:00:30","date_gmt":"2025-12-03T18:00:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=16169"},"modified":"2025-12-03T15:39:33","modified_gmt":"2025-12-03T15:39:33","slug":"bitcoin-brule-les-mains-des-traders","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-brule-les-mains-des-traders\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin br\u00fble les mains des traders tandis que les ETF sortent la t\u00eate de l\u2019eau"},"content":{"rendered":"

Les traders de Bitcoin \u00e9touffent sous les pertes alors m\u00eame que les ETF commencent \u00e0 repasser dans le vert. Le contraste est brutal. D\u2019un c\u00f4t\u00e9, une arm\u00e9e de sp\u00e9culateurs coinc\u00e9s en perte latente. De l\u2019autre, des produits institutionnels qui se redressent discr\u00e8tement<\/strong>. La douleur est r\u00e9elle, mais elle n\u2019est pas forc\u00e9ment le signe de la fin du cycle.<\/p>\n

Des traders de Bitcoin coinc\u00e9s sous l\u2019eau<\/span><\/h2>\n

Les donn\u00e9es on-chain montrent que les traders de Bitcoin \u00e0 court terme traversent le moment le plus difficile<\/a><\/strong> de ce cycle. Ceux qui ont achet\u00e9 entre un et trois mois plus t\u00f4t supportent actuellement des pertes latentes de l\u2019ordre de 20 \u00e0 25 %. Et cette situation ne dure pas depuis deux jours. Elle s\u2019\u00e9tire sur plus de deux semaines, ce qui finit par user les nerfs m\u00eame des profils les plus aguerris.<\/p>\n

\"Traders<\/p>\n

Ce groupe<\/a> restera sous l\u2019eau tant que le cours du bitcoin ne repassera pas au-dessus de son prix r\u00e9alis\u00e9 moyen, estim\u00e9 autour de 113 000 dollars<\/strong>. En clair, tant que le march\u00e9 reste en dessous de ce seuil, ces acheteurs regardent un portefeuille rouge<\/strong> vif \u00e0 chaque connexion \u00e0 leur exchange. La pression psychologique devient alors un moteur de vente bien plus puissant que n\u2019importe quel graphique.<\/p>\n

Dans ce type de configuration, le march\u00e9 joue son r\u00f4le habituel. Il teste la r\u00e9silience des mains faibles. Une partie de ces traders finit par capituler,<\/strong> souvent au pire moment, en vendant au c\u0153ur de la baisse. C\u2019est pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment ce que certains analystes commencent \u00e0 identifier. Une phase de capitulation<\/a> progressive, avec des positions \u00e0 court terme liquid\u00e9es ou revendues \u00e0 perte. Le march\u00e9 ne sonne jamais la cloche du point bas<\/strong>, mais ce genre de contexte ressemble souvent \u00e0 une zone d\u2019accumulation pour les acteurs plus patients.<\/p>\n

Capitulation, cycles et opportunit\u00e9s cach\u00e9es<\/span><\/h2>\n

L\u2019histoire du bitcoin montre que les phases de douleur maximale pour les traders \u00e0 court terme co\u00efncident souvent avec des opportunit\u00e9s pour ceux qui pensent \u00e0 deux ou trois ans,<\/strong> plut\u00f4t qu\u2019\u00e0 deux ou trois semaines. Quand la majorit\u00e9 vend parce que \u00ab \u00e7a fait trop mal \u00bb, ceux qui ont du recul acceptent d\u2019acheter ce stress \u00e0 prix cass\u00e9. Ce n\u2019est pas confortable. Mais c\u2019est souvent l\u00e0 que se construit la performance future.<\/p>\n

Certaines grandes institutions semblent d\u2019ailleurs lire le march\u00e9 sous cet angle. Des gestionnaires comme Grayscale voient dans la correction actuelle un possible creux local avant une reprise plus nette \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2026.<\/strong> Ce type de sc\u00e9nario remettrait en question la fameuse th\u00e9orie du cycle de quatre ans, qui voudrait que tout soit parfaitement rythm\u00e9 par les halvings. La r\u00e9alit\u00e9 rappelle r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement que le bitcoin est un actif macro, pas une horloge suisse.<\/p>\n

\"Cours<\/p>\n

Ce d\u00e9calage entre la souffrance imm\u00e9diate et les anticipations \u00e0 long terme est au c\u0153ur de la dynamique du march\u00e9. Les traders qui vivent au rythme des liquidations,<\/strong> <\/a>des lev\u00e9es de stops et des appels de marge ne jouent pas la m\u00eame partie que les fonds qui construisent des positions sur plusieurs ann\u00e9es. Bitcoin devient alors un terrain o\u00f9 les horizons temporels s\u2019affrontent. Et o\u00f9 la douleur des uns cr\u00e9e les points d\u2019entr\u00e9e des autres.<\/p>\n

Les ETF Bitcoin, boucs \u00e9missaires trop commodes<\/span><\/h2>\n

Face \u00e0 la baisse du cours, un coupable tout d\u00e9sign\u00e9 est vite apparu : les ETF Bitcoin au comptant. L\u2019histoire \u00e9tait simple. Trop simple. Les sorties de capitaux des ETF auraient provoqu\u00e9 l\u2019essentiel de la chute. Pourtant, les chiffres racontent une histoire beaucoup moins spectaculaire<\/strong>. Selon les estimations relay\u00e9es par certains analystes, les ETF n\u2019auraient contribu\u00e9 qu\u2019\u00e0 environ 3 % de la pression vendeuse r\u00e9cente.<\/p>\n

Un autre chiffre casse aussi le r\u00e9cit facile. Si l\u2019on suit la logique de certains mod\u00e8les, chaque milliard de dollars sortant des ETF serait \u00e9quivalent \u00e0 une baisse d\u2019environ 3,4 % du prix du bitcoin. Or, ces m\u00eames produits affichent, depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, plus de 22 milliards de dollars d\u2019entr\u00e9es nettes<\/strong>. Si l\u2019on appliquait m\u00e9caniquement ce raisonnement, Bitcoin devrait afficher des gains beaucoup plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s qu\u2019aujourd\u2019hui. Ce n\u2019est manifestement pas le cas. Preuve que le march\u00e9 est plus complexe que ces r\u00e8gles de trois un peu rapides.<\/p>\n

\"ETF<\/p>\n

Dans le m\u00eame temps, les ETF sont en train de se stabiliser. Apr\u00e8s un mois de novembre marqu\u00e9 par environ 3,5 milliards de sorties cumul\u00e9es<\/a>, les flux redeviennent positifs. Plusieurs jours cons\u00e9cutifs d\u2019entr\u00e9es nettes montrent que la machine n\u2019est pas cass\u00e9e. Et un d\u00e9tail technique compte beaucoup : le prix du bitcoin est repass\u00e9 au-dessus du co\u00fbt moyen pond\u00e9r\u00e9 d\u2019achat des investisseurs en ETF, autour de 89 600 dollars. De ce fait, la plupart de ces porteurs ne sont plus en perte latente.<\/strong> La pression de vente forc\u00e9e diminue. Le narratif du \u00ab tout est de la faute des ETF \u00bb perd ainsi une bonne partie de sa cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Les traders de Bitcoin \u00e9touffent sous les pertes alors m\u00eame que les ETF commencent \u00e0 repasser dans le vert….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":241,"featured_media":16171,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[15],"class_list":["post-16169","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLes traders de Bitcoin \u00e9touffent sous les pertes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Les traders de Bitcoin subissent leurs plus fortes pertes du cycle tandis que les ETF renouent avec des flux positifs.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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