{"id":15750,"date":"2025-11-26T21:29:51","date_gmt":"2025-11-26T21:29:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=15750"},"modified":"2025-11-26T21:30:45","modified_gmt":"2025-11-26T21:30:45","slug":"bitcoin-a-25-000-le-scenario-de-strategy-seme-le-doute","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-a-25-000-le-scenario-de-strategy-seme-le-doute\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin \u00e0 25 000 $ : le sc\u00e9nario de Strategy s\u00e8me le doute"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin \u00e0 25 000 dollars ? C\u2019est bien le sc\u00e9nario extr\u00eame que Strategy, ex-MicroStrategy, a choisi de mettre en avant pour rassurer ses cr\u00e9anciers, tout en semant le doute chez une partie des investisseurs. En chiffrant publiquement<strong> l\u2019impact d\u2019un tel krach, la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 rappelle \u00e0 quel point son destin est d\u00e9sormais li\u00e9 au prix du bitcoin.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"un_stress_test_a_25_000_qui_brouille_le_message\">Un stress test \u00e0 25 000 $ qui brouille le message<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Dans <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Strategy\/status\/1993402890690740233\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">son post sur X<\/a>, Strategy explique qu\u2019\u00e0 74 000 dollars, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire proche de son prix d\u2019achat moyen, son BTC Rating affiche encore un ratio de 5,9 entre la valeur de son bitcoin et sa dette convertible. <strong>M\u00eame \u00e0 25 000 dollars, ce ratio resterait \u00e0 2.<\/strong> Autrement dit, la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 se dit capable d\u2019encaisser une chute de plus de 70 % depuis les niveaux actuels, o\u00f9 <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/ppi-us-en-hausse-a-27-le-bitcoin-decroche-vers-les-87-000\/\" rel=\"\">le bitcoin oscille autour de 87 000 dollars.<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">If <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">$BTC<\/a> drops to our $74K average cost basis, we still have 5.9x assets to convertible debt, which we refer to as the BTC Rating of our debt. At $25K BTC, it would be 2.0x.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Strategy (@Strategy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Strategy\/status\/1993402890690740233?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">November 25, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Sur le papier, le message se veut rassurant. <strong>Strategy insiste sur le fait que sa dette convertible de 8,2 milliards de dollars<\/strong> reste plus que couverte par son tr\u00e9sor de guerre en bitcoin, y compris dans un sc\u00e9nario de march\u00e9 que beaucoup jugeraient apocalyptique.<\/p>\n<p>Mais en pratique,<strong> cette communication a surtout fait r\u00e9agir la communaut\u00e9.<\/strong> Pourquoi \u00e9voquer spontan\u00e9ment le niveau de 25 000 dollars si ce n\u2019est pas un sc\u00e9nario que l\u2019on commence \u00e0 envisager s\u00e9rieusement ? Sur les r\u00e9seaux, plusieurs observateurs y voient un r\u00e9v\u00e9lateur de nervosit\u00e9, \u00e0 l\u2019heure o\u00f9 le titre Strategy accuse d\u00e9j\u00e0 une lourde correction en Bourse.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">They are preparing for bear market strategy already \ud83d\udc80 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/eQfHDoF9jf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/t.co\/eQfHDoF9jf<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Ritesh (@Ritesh_Trades) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Ritesh_Trades\/status\/1993404284805972129?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">November 25, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"une_forteresse_de_bitcoins_malgre_la_tempete\">Une forteresse de bitcoins, malgr\u00e9 la temp\u00eate<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Derri\u00e8re le bruit, les chiffres restent pourtant imposants. Strategy d\u00e9tient pr\u00e8s de 650 000 BTC achet\u00e9s \u00e0 un prix moyen d\u2019environ 74 433 dollars, pour une <strong>mise totale sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 48 milliards de dollars.<\/strong> \u00c0 cours actuel, cette position repr\u00e9sente plus de 56 milliards, soit plus de 3 % de l\u2019offre totale de bitcoin en circulation.<\/p>\n<p>Face \u00e0 cela, la dette convertible de 8,2 milliards est largement sur-collat\u00e9ralis\u00e9e. M\u00eame en ajoutant pr\u00e8s de 7,8 milliards de titres pr\u00e9f\u00e9rentiels, les engagements totaux de Strategy avoisinent 16 milliards de dollars. <strong>La soci\u00e9t\u00e9 revendique ainsi un BTC Rating consolid\u00e9 d\u2019environ 3,6<\/strong>, ce qui signifie qu\u2019elle d\u00e9tient plus de trois fois la valeur de ses obligations en BTC aux prix actuels.<\/p>\n<p>Ce montage lui donne surtout un atout d\u00e9cisif : le temps. Une grande partie de la dette ne vient pas \u00e0 \u00e9ch\u00e9ance avant 2028\u20132032. Et comme l\u2019ont rappel\u00e9 plusieurs analystes, <strong>Strategy dispose \u00e9galement d\u2019actifs non li\u00e9s au bitcoin<\/strong> et de flux de tr\u00e9sorerie issus de son activit\u00e9 logicielle.\u00a0Autrement dit, la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 n\u2019a aucune obligation de vendre ses bitcoins dans la panique \u00e0 la moindre correction du march\u00e9, m\u00eame si le stress boursier reste fort.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"laction_strategy_pas_le_bilan\">L\u2019action Strategy, pas le bilan<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>L\u00e0 o\u00f9 la pression se concentre aujourd\u2019hui, ce n\u2019est pas sur la blockchain, mais sur le march\u00e9 actions. <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/microstrategy-secroule-victime-du-bitcoin\/\" rel=\"\">Le titre Strategy a perdu environ 40 \u00e0 50 %<\/a> depuis ses plus hauts de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, port\u00e9 d\u2019abord par la hausse du bitcoin, puis rattrap\u00e9 par la baisse d\u00e8s que l\u2019euphorie s\u2019est calm\u00e9e.<\/p>\n<p>Cette volatilit\u00e9 s\u2019amplifie par la structure m\u00eame du groupe. Pour accumuler autant de bitcoins, <strong>Strategy a multipli\u00e9 les \u00e9missions d\u2019actions, de pr\u00e9f\u00e9rentielles et de dette convertible.<\/strong> Tant que le march\u00e9 valide la strat\u00e9gie \u00ab bitcoin \u00e0 tout prix \u00bb, cette m\u00e9canique fonctionne. Mais lorsque la prime du titre par rapport \u00e0 la valeur de ses BTC se compresse, chaque nouvelle lev\u00e9e de capital est per\u00e7ue comme une dilution potentielle, et non plus comme un pari g\u00e9nial sur l\u2019adoption de bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c0 cela s\u2019ajoutent les enjeux d\u2019indices. Strategy a d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 exclue du S&amp;P 500 et la menace d\u2019une sortie de certains indices MSCI plane toujours, avec \u00e0 la cl\u00e9 <strong>des ventes forc\u00e9es de la part de fonds indiciels.<\/strong> Ce risque technique peut accentuer les mouvements, ind\u00e9pendamment de la solidit\u00e9 du bilan en bitcoins.<\/p>\n<p>L\u2019horizon \u00e0 25 000 dollars en dit finalement autant sur le bitcoin que sur Strategy. Un tel recul repr\u00e9senterait une chute d\u2019environ 70 % par rapport aux niveaux actuels. C\u2019est violent, mais ce n\u2019est pas in\u00e9dit \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle de l\u2019histoire du bitcoin, o\u00f9 chaque cycle haussier a \u00e9t\u00e9 suivi de drawdowns comparables. Le stress test de Strategy rappelle simplement que<strong> ce type de mouvement reste statistiquement possible, m\u00eame si personne ne peut en pr\u00e9dire le timing.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin \u00e0 25 000 dollars ? C\u2019est bien le sc\u00e9nario extr\u00eame que Strategy, ex-MicroStrategy, a choisi de mettre en&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":241,"featured_media":15769,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[15],"class_list":["post-15750","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin \u00e0 25 000 $ : le sc\u00e9nario de Strategy s\u00e8me le doute<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Strategy \u00e9voque un Bitcoin \u00e0 25 000 $, affirmant rester couverte sur sa dette. 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