{"id":14224,"date":"2025-11-06T20:00:33","date_gmt":"2025-11-06T20:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=14224"},"modified":"2025-11-07T08:46:13","modified_gmt":"2025-11-07T08:46:13","slug":"wintermute-croissance-crypto-setouffe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/wintermute-croissance-crypto-setouffe\/","title":{"rendered":"Wintermute pr\u00e9vient : la croissance crypto s\u2019\u00e9touffe"},"content":{"rendered":"

Selon Wintermute, le moteur de croissance de la crypto tourne \u00e0 vide. Les apports de capitaux frais se tassent, et la liquidit\u00e9 tourne en rond entre stablecoins,<\/strong> ETF et \u201cdigital asset treasuries\u201d (DAT). De ce fait, un march\u00e9 vivant, mais peu expansif, o\u00f9 l\u2019on s\u2019ach\u00e8te surtout\u2026 entre soi.<\/p>\n

Le moteur cale<\/span><\/h2>\n

Wintermute d\u00e9crit une phase \u201cauto-financ\u00e9e\u201d. Les flux entrants se sont stabilis\u00e9s et la m\u00eame masse d\u2019argent circule d\u2019un actif \u00e0 l\u2019autre sans v\u00e9ritable expansion du bassin de capitaux. C\u2019est la logique de la liquidit\u00e9 recycl\u00e9e, et elle explique pourquoi des impulsions haussi\u00e8res s\u2019essoufflent vite.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Les chiffres avanc\u00e9s sont parlants. Depuis 2024, les encours combin\u00e9s ETF + DAT seraient pass\u00e9s d\u2019environ 40 milliards \u00e0 270 milliards de dollars. Dans le m\u00eame temps, l\u2019offre de stablecoins aurait doubl\u00e9 vers 290 milliards.<\/strong> Mais l\u2019\u00e9lan s\u2019est arr\u00eat\u00e9.<\/a> Plus de nouvelles \u00e9missions massives, peu de nouveaux capitaux nets, beaucoup de rotations internes.<\/p>\n

\"Man\u00e8ge<\/p>\n

Pour comprendre l\u2019un des canaux cit\u00e9s par Wintermute, rappel utile. Les DAT sont des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s cot\u00e9es qui inscrivent des crypto-actifs au c\u0153ur de leur bilan, \u00e0 la mani\u00e8re d\u2019une tr\u00e9sorerie strat\u00e9gique. Ce v\u00e9hicule institutionnel a acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9 en 2025, mais il d\u00e9pend, lui aussi, d\u2019un vrai app\u00e9tit pour le risque c\u00f4t\u00e9 investisseurs.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Liquide partout sauf en crypto<\/span><\/h2>\n

Ce coup de mou n\u2019est pas, selon Wintermute, un durcissement mon\u00e9taire d\u00e9guis\u00e9. Au contraire, l\u2019environnement global se d\u00e9tend. Plusieurs banques centrales ont entam\u00e9 un cycle d\u2019assouplissement en 2025, signe d\u2019un M2 encore porteur. Pourtant, cette liquidit\u00e9 globale ne se dirige pas franchement vers le march\u00e9 crypto.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pourquoi ? Parce que le rendement sans risque reste tentant. Les taux courts am\u00e9ricains, mesur\u00e9s via la SOFR, gravitent encore autour de 4 % ces jours-ci. Beaucoup d\u2019investisseurs pr\u00e9f\u00e8rent donc les T-bills et les fonds mon\u00e9taires.<\/strong> En effet, c\u2019est liquide, r\u00e9mun\u00e9r\u00e9, et moins volatil qu\u2019un panier d\u2019altcoins. Tant que le portage en cash reste confortable, la prime de risque exig\u00e9e pour la crypto demeure \u00e9lev\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

Toutefois, un march\u00e9 \u201cplayer-versus-player\u201d. Les volumes sont l\u00e0, mais les rallyes durent peu. Les acc\u00e9l\u00e9rations viennent de cascades de liquidations plus que d\u2019achats soutenus, et la volatilit\u00e9 alterne \u00e9touffements et sursauts. Un r\u00e9gime frustrant pour qui attend un cycle d\u2019expansion classique.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ce qui relancerait la machine<\/span><\/h2>\n

Le signal fort viendra d\u2019un retour des flux nets dans des nouvelles parts d\u2019ETF remplies d\u2019afflux frais, reprise de la frappe nette de stablecoins, ou nouvelle vague d\u2019\u00e9missions DAT<\/strong>. L\u2019une seule de ces vannes qui se rouvre, et l\u2019\u00e9lasticit\u00e9 des prix joue de nouveau en faveur d\u2019un bull-run plus durable.<\/p>\n

Des indices existent d\u00e9j\u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9 tr\u00e9soreries. \u00c0 la mi-octobre, un rapport Bitwise pointait 48 nouvelles entreprises ayant ajout\u00e9 du bitcoin<\/strong> \u00e0 leur bilan en seulement trois mois. C\u2019est de l\u2019accumulation silencieuse, souvent trait\u00e9e OTC, donc sans impact imm\u00e9diat sur les carnets, mais qui pr\u00e9pare le terrain.<\/p>\n

\"Crypto<\/p>\n

M\u00eame diagnostic chez certains acteurs locaux. En effet, des analystes observent que les gros ne se retirent pas, ils renforcent. L\u00e0 encore, le canal OTC gomme la visibilit\u00e9 dans le prix au quotidien. Si cette tendance gagne en cadence et se couple \u00e0 des \u00e9missions nettes de stablecoins et \u00e0 des cr\u00e9ations d\u2019ETF attractives, la phase PVP pourrait c\u00e9der la place \u00e0 une dynamique d\u2019expansion.<\/strong><\/p>\n

L\u2019infrastructure on-chain progresse, les cas d\u2019usage s\u2019\u00e9toffent, mais sans afflux de capitaux<\/a>, le prix refl\u00e8te surtout des rotations internes. Le message de Wintermute<\/a> n\u2019est pas baissier par principe. Il est m\u00e9canique. Tant que la liquidit\u00e9 se recycle, la croissance crypto s\u2019\u00e9touffe. Quand elle s\u2019\u00e9largit, elle reprend son souffle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Selon Wintermute, le moteur de croissance de la crypto tourne \u00e0 vide. Les apports de capitaux frais se tassent,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":241,"featured_media":14225,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[92,61],"class_list":["post-14224","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-chute","tag-crypto","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCrypto : Wintermute alerte sur la liquidit\u00e9 recycl\u00e9e<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Wintermute alerte : la croissance du march\u00e9 crypto ralentit, \u00e9touff\u00e9e par une \u00ab liquidit\u00e9 recycl\u00e9e \u00bb entre stablecoins, ETF, etc\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/wintermute-croissance-crypto-setouffe\/\" 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