{"id":12266,"date":"2025-10-16T13:00:11","date_gmt":"2025-10-16T13:00:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=12266"},"modified":"2025-10-16T13:17:38","modified_gmt":"2025-10-16T13:17:38","slug":"bitcoin-correction-se-rapproche","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-correction-se-rapproche\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin s\u2019essouffle, la correction se rapproche"},"content":{"rendered":"

L\u2019\u00e9lan s\u2019\u00e9mousse. Sans nouveau catalyseur capable de repousser les prix au-del\u00e0 de 117 100 $,<\/strong> le Bitcoin s\u2019expose \u00e0 une phase de respiration plus appuy\u00e9e. Cette zone reste la charni\u00e8re psychologique et technique du moment, alors que le march\u00e9 oscille autour des 110 000 $.<\/p>\n

Le seuil des 117 100 $ comme ligne de flottaison pour bitcoin<\/span><\/h2>\n

Tant que le march\u00e9 ne ravit pas le couloir 114 000 \u2013 117 000 $, la dynamique ascendante patine. Les m\u00e9triques on-chain compil\u00e9es par Glassnode<\/a> ont m\u00eame \u00e9voqu\u00e9 le risque d\u2019une contraction plus profonde en l\u2019absence d\u2019\u00e9tincelle<\/strong> neuve pour rallumer la machine haussi\u00e8re. Ce palier a servi de zone d\u2019offre sur la jambe pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente et a recouvr\u00e9 sa force d\u2019attraction \u00e0 mesure que les prises de profits s\u2019intensifiaient.<\/p>\n

Dans l\u2019imm\u00e9diat, le prix du bitcoin \u00e9volue quelques pourcents sous ce plafond. L\u2019ind\u00e9cision se lit dans la micro-structure. Chaque tentative de rebond se heurte \u00e0 une liquidit\u00e9 vendeuse encore dense<\/strong>, quand les acheteurs d\u00e9fendent les creux avec plus de prudence qu\u2019en d\u00e9but d\u2019Uptober<\/a>. Le test des 110 000 $\u2009- 111 000 $ concentre donc l\u2019attention des traders.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

Le contexte plaide pour une lecture nuanc\u00e9e. D\u2019un c\u00f4t\u00e9, l\u2019essentiel de l\u2019offre en circulation demeure en gain latent<\/strong>, ce qui nourrit un app\u00e9tit de r\u00e9alisation, typique des fin de pouss\u00e9e. De l\u2019autre, l\u2019architecture de la demande n\u2019est pas cass\u00e9e.<\/strong> L\u2019accumulation interm\u00e9diaire a port\u00e9 le franchissement des anciens sommets d\u00e9but octobre, avant que la volatilit\u00e9 ne reprenne ses droits.<\/p>\n

Volatilit\u00e9 de courte p\u00e9riode, lat\u00e9ralisation probable<\/span><\/h2>\n

Sur le plan tactique, l\u2019axe de variation pourrait rester large ce mois-ci. Shubh Varma, PDG d\u2019Hyblock Capital, anticipe un environnement relativement volatil, avec des extensions possibles vers 116 000 \u2013 120 000 $ pour bitcoin<\/strong>. Il insiste cependant sur une donn\u00e9e simple. Apr\u00e8s un choc, la consolidation lat\u00e9rale est souvent l\u2019issue la plus probable<\/strong>, surtout si les catalyseurs fondamentaux se font rares.<\/p>\n

Cette lecture colle \u00e0 ce que montrent les carnets. L\u2019app\u00e9tit pour les options de couverture remonte, tandis que l\u2019effet de levier se normalise. La cons\u00e9quence est connue. Des m\u00e8ches plus longues, des cassures plus pi\u00e9geuses, et une analyse qui redevient d\u00e9terminant pour \u00e9viter de courir apr\u00e8s les \u00e0-coups.<\/p>\n

Pour l\u2019investisseur non-sp\u00e9cialiste, cela signifie surtout gestion du risque et horizons adapt\u00e9s. Les biais directionnels forts tiennent moins longtemps. Les zones sont plus utiles que des niveaux au dollar pr\u00e8s. Au-dessus de 117 000 $ par bitcoin, l\u2019air s\u2019\u00e9claircit<\/strong>. En-dessous de 108 000\u2013110 000 $, la pression se renforce. La patience, dans ce type de phase, paie plus que la pr\u00e9cipitation.<\/p>\n

Les flux des ETF Bitcoin et la Fed<\/span><\/h2>\n

Si moteur il doit y avoir, il viendra sans doute des flux. D\u00e9but octobre, les ETF Bitcoin au comptant ont encha\u00een\u00e9 une s\u00e9rie de journ\u00e9es d\u2019entr\u00e9es nettes, t\u00e9moignant d\u2019une demande structurelle toujours pr\u00e9sente. Le suivi de Farside<\/a> montre des afflux cons\u00e9quents sur plusieurs s\u00e9ances cons\u00e9cutives, avant un accroc isol\u00e9.<\/a> La trame reste positive \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle du mois. C\u2019est ce socle qui avait permis la pouss\u00e9e vers de nouveaux plus-hauts.<\/strong><\/p>\n

En outre, les propos de Jerome Powell<\/a> cette semaine ont entretenu l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019un biais plus accommodant. Les march\u00e9s \u00e0 terme int\u00e8grent une tr\u00e8s forte probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une nouvelle baisse<\/strong> des taux lors de la r\u00e9union du 29 \u2013 30 octobre, un environnement historiquement porteur pour les actifs risqu\u00e9s lorsque la croissance ne se d\u00e9robe pas.<\/p>\n

\"ETF<\/p>\n

Concr\u00e8tement, des taux directeurs plus bas am\u00e9liorent le diff\u00e9rentiel d\u2019attractivit\u00e9<\/strong> entre obligations et actifs de croissance. Ils fluidifient aussi le co\u00fbt d\u2019opportunit\u00e9 pour les flux institutionnels vers les ETF Bitcoin. Si ce duo se r\u00e9aligne, le march\u00e9 crypto retrouve vite du souffle, m\u00eame sans r\u00e9cit flambant neuf.<\/p>\n

Au-del\u00e0 du bruit de court terme, certains strat\u00e8ges voient le verre \u00e0 moiti\u00e9 plein. Matt Mena (21Shares) juge la configuration \u00ab de plus en plus constructive \u00bb pour la fin d\u2019ann\u00e9e : la purge de levier<\/a>, la perspective d\u2019un assouplissement mon\u00e9taire et la traction des ETF constituent, selon lui, un triangle de soutien. Il \u00e9voque un potentiel vers 150 000 $ <\/a>si ces vents favorables s\u2019additionnent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L\u2019\u00e9lan s\u2019\u00e9mousse. Sans nouveau catalyseur capable de repousser les prix au-del\u00e0 de 117 100 $, le Bitcoin s\u2019expose \u00e0…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":241,"featured_media":12269,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[118,15],"class_list":["post-12266","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-baisse","tag-bitcoin","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin cherche un souffle avant la temp\u00eate<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le Bitcoin s\u2019essouffle sous les 117 000 $, et sans nouveau catalyseur, une correction plus profonde pourrait s\u2019amorcer.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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