{"id":11748,"date":"2025-10-10T13:31:27","date_gmt":"2025-10-10T13:31:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=11748"},"modified":"2025-10-10T13:40:45","modified_gmt":"2025-10-10T13:40:45","slug":"bitcoin-trebuche-sous-121000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-trebuche-sous-121000\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin tr\u00e9buche sous les 121 000 $, mais l\u2019esprit \u00ab Uptober \u00bb reste in\u00e9branlable"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin recule sous les 121 000 $, mais l\u2019optimisme de \u201cUptober\u201d ne s\u2019est pas \u00e9vapor\u00e9. Les signaux de flux et d\u2019offre sugg\u00e8rent une pause plus qu\u2019un pivot.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sous pression, mais la structure tient<\/span><\/h2>\n

Ce vendredi 10 octobre, le bitcoin a gliss\u00e9 vers 121 000 $, quelques jours seulement apr\u00e8s un sommet historique autour de 126 080 $<\/a>. Le reflux ressemble \u00e0 une simple respiration, pas \u00e0 un renversement de tendance.<\/strong> Les donn\u00e9es de march\u00e9 confirment ce va-et-vient court terme, alors que la crypto dig\u00e8re ses records battus en d\u00e9but de semaine.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

Sur le terrain, l\u2019explication est classique. Prises de b\u00e9n\u00e9fices de traders \u00e0 court terme et liquidation de positions. Mais l\u2019offre \u201clong terme\u201d reste immobile. Cette lecture, partag\u00e9e par plusieurs traders, cadre avec la s\u00e9quence des derniers jours o\u00f9 l\u2019euphorie s\u2019est heurt\u00e9e \u00e0 une gestion de risque plus stricte<\/strong>. En effet, la sp\u00e9culation souffle, l\u2019investissement reste.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Surtout, le socle de la tendance n\u2019a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 fissur\u00e9. Les flux vers les ETF spot demeurent cons\u00e9quents et l\u2019offre disponible en bourse est retomb\u00e9e \u00e0 un creux de six ans.<\/strong> Deux indicateurs qui, mis bout \u00e0 bout, n\u2019envoient pas un message de capitulation, mais plut\u00f4t de rar\u00e9faction du float au moment o\u00f9 la demande institutionnelle s\u2019\u00e9toffe.<\/p>\n

Macro : un dollar nerveux, une Fed lisible et un \u201cshutdown\u201d<\/span><\/h2>\n

La toile de fond reste d\u00e9licate. Le dollar a cess\u00e9 de s\u2019affaiblir, les rendements ne se d\u00e9tendent que par \u00e0-coups, et la Fed m\u00e9nage ses effets.<\/strong> Pourtant, la lisibilit\u00e9 s\u2019am\u00e9liore. Le march\u00e9 int\u00e8gre d\u00e9sormais une forte probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019un nouvel assouplissement mon\u00e9taire \u00e0 la r\u00e9union du 29 octobre<\/strong>, une lecture que confirment plusieurs relev\u00e9s bas\u00e9s sur le CME FedWatch.<\/p>\n

\"Crypto<\/p>\n

Un autre variable \u00e0 ne pas n\u00e9gliger, c\u2019est la paralysie partielle des administrations f\u00e9d\u00e9rales am\u00e9ricaines. Ce shutdown<\/a> nourrit la demande d\u2019actifs per\u00e7us comme refuges ou non corr\u00e9l\u00e9s, et p\u00e8se sur le moral \u00e9conomique<\/strong>. L\u2019or en a profit\u00e9 pour inscrire un record historique cette semaine. Il s\u2019agit d\u2019un mouvement qui r\u00e9sonne souvent, pas toujours, avec la robustesse du narratif \u201cbitcoin or\u201d.<\/p>\n

Au total, le mix macro dessine une fen\u00eatre o\u00f9 la volatilit\u00e9 reste \u00e9lev\u00e9e, mais o\u00f9 le biais directionnel de bitcoin n\u2019est pas m\u00e9caniquement remis en cause. Tant que l\u2019anticipation de d\u00e9tente mon\u00e9taire domine et que les \u201chard assets\u201d captent les flux de diversification<\/strong>, la tendance haussi\u00e8re garde ses appuis.<\/p>\n

\u201cUptober\u201d en chiffres : mythe commode ou saisonnalit\u00e9 r\u00e9elle ?<\/span><\/h2>\n

L\u2019Uptober<\/a> fait sourire les puristes<\/strong>, mais il ne na\u00eet pas de nulle part. Sur longueurs d\u2019\u00e9chantillons diff\u00e9rentes, on trouve des moyennes de performance d\u2019octobre comprises entre 14 % et 22 %<\/strong> pour le bitcoin depuis 2013. La dispersion existe, certes, mais la saisonnalit\u00e9 positive ressort avec une fr\u00e9quence \u00e9lev\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

C\u00f4t\u00e9 Ethereum,<\/a> l\u2019histoire est plus mesur\u00e9e<\/strong>. Les s\u00e9ries montrent un mois d\u2019octobre g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement positif, mais sur une amplitude moindre, autour de 5 % en moyenne selon certains d\u00e9coupages temporels. Rien de grav\u00e9 dans le marbre ici non plus. La corr\u00e9lation reste forte, et un choc de liquidit\u00e9 sur BTC rejaillit vite sur l\u2019\u00e9cosyst\u00e8me.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Uptober n\u2019est pas une promesse, c\u2019est un contexte. Il favorise une lecture constructive, mais n\u2019\u00e9vacue ni les \u00e0-coups, ni les fausses cassures. En pratique, les retours se concentrent souvent en fin de mois, au moment o\u00f9 les flux se synchronisent avec la macro.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin recule sous les 121 000 $, mais l\u2019optimisme de \u201cUptober\u201d ne s\u2019est pas \u00e9vapor\u00e9. Les signaux de flux…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":241,"featured_media":11752,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[15,92],"class_list":["post-11748","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-altcoins","tag-bitcoin","tag-chute","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin tr\u00e9buche sous les 121 000 $<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le Bitcoin recule sous les 121 000 $, mais les analystes jugent la tendance haussi\u00e8re intacte. \u201cUptober\u201d reste d\u2019actualit\u00e9.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-trebuche-sous-121000\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta 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