{"id":11656,"date":"2025-10-09T15:30:15","date_gmt":"2025-10-09T15:30:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=11656"},"modified":"2025-10-09T15:20:07","modified_gmt":"2025-10-09T15:20:07","slug":"arthur-hayes-trump-et-xi-poussent-un-peu-trop-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/arthur-hayes-trump-et-xi-poussent-un-peu-trop-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes : Trump et Xi poussent un peu trop Bitcoin"},"content":{"rendered":"

Arthur Hayes, fondateur de BitMEX<\/strong>, affirme que la hausse actuelle du Bitcoin d\u00e9pend davantage des d\u00e9cisions mon\u00e9taires de Donald Trump et Xi Jinping<\/strong> que des halvings programm\u00e9s. Dans son dernier essai \u00ab\u00a0Longue vie au Roi\u00a0\u00bb, le trader crypto analyse trois cycles historiques du Bitcoin. Il conclut que les politiques de liquidit\u00e9 am\u00e9ricaines et chinoises ont toujours \u00e9t\u00e9 les v\u00e9ritables moteurs du prix. Alors que Trump pousse vers des taux plus bas et Xi combat la d\u00e9flation, Hayes pr\u00e9dit une convergence mon\u00e9taire favorable au Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

Les politiques mon\u00e9taires remplacent le cycle de halving<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Arthur Hayes bouleverse le narratif traditionnel du Bitcoin<\/strong>. Selon lui, les r\u00e9ductions de moiti\u00e9 ne dictent plus les cycles haussiers. Les fluctuations de liquidit\u00e9 du dollar et du yuan<\/a> sont d\u00e9sormais les variables d\u00e9terminantes. L\u2019analyse repose sur l\u2019observation de trois cycles majeurs depuis 2009.<\/p>\n

Le trader affirme que nous vivons dans un monde o\u00f9 les ressources restent limit\u00e9es. L\u2019\u00e9nergie et les biens demeurent rares. Dans ce contexte, l\u2019argent fixe le prix de la raret\u00e9. Hayes<\/strong> qualifie m\u00eame la monnaie de \u00ab\u00a0construction diabolique\u00a0\u00bb qui permet d\u2019allouer les ressources.<\/p>\n

Les gouvernements interviennent syst\u00e9matiquement sur les march\u00e9s mon\u00e9taires<\/strong>. Ils pr\u00e9tendent pr\u00e9venir des cons\u00e9quences immorales ou fournir des biens collectifs. Mais leur intervention m\u00e8ne in\u00e9vitablement \u00e0 la d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation mon\u00e9taire. Les politiciens refusent d\u2019attendre de v\u00e9ritables avanc\u00e9es scientifiques. Ils pr\u00e9f\u00e8rent imprimer de la monnaie.<\/p>\n

Trois cycles historiques domin\u00e9s par la liquidit\u00e9<\/span><\/h2>\n

Hayes d\u00e9taille trois p\u00e9riodes majeures. Le cycle Genesis<\/strong> (2009-2013) a d\u00e9marr\u00e9 avec la crise financi\u00e8re mondiale. Ben Bernanke<\/strong> a lanc\u00e9 un assouplissement quantitatif illimit\u00e9. La Chine a simultan\u00e9ment inond\u00e9 le monde de cr\u00e9dit. Le Bitcoin a explos\u00e9 avant de s\u2019effondrer en 2013. La Fed et la PBOC ont alors ralenti l\u2019expansion mon\u00e9taire.<\/p>\n

Le cycle des ICO<\/strong> (2013-2017) a suivi avec le lancement d\u2019Ethereum. La liquidit\u00e9 chinoise a domin\u00e9 la p\u00e9riode. La d\u00e9valuation du yuan en 2015 a propuls\u00e9 le cr\u00e9dit. Mais fin 2017, le ralentissement du cr\u00e9dit chinois et le resserrement du dollar ont stopp\u00e9 la hausse.<\/p>\n

Le cycle COVID<\/strong> (2017-2021) a marqu\u00e9 un tournant historique. Trump a lanc\u00e9 l\u2019aide populiste la plus massive depuis le New Deal. Des milliers de milliards de dollars ont \u00e9t\u00e9 inject\u00e9s. L\u2019offre de dollars a doubl\u00e9. Xi Jinping a maintenu un contr\u00f4le strict en Chine.<\/p>\n

Il a combattu la sp\u00e9culation immobili\u00e8re avec sa r\u00e8gle des \u00ab\u00a0trois lignes rouges<\/strong>\u00ab\u00a0. Fin 2021, l\u2019inflation am\u00e9ricaine a explos\u00e9. Biden a arr\u00eat\u00e9 les mesures de relance.<\/p>\n

Trump et Xi pr\u00e9parent un nouveau d\u00e9luge de liquidit\u00e9s<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Le cycle actuel diff\u00e8re des pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents. L\u2019Am\u00e9rique n\u2019est plus l\u2019empire incontest\u00e9. Janet Yellen a vid\u00e9 le programme de prise en pension invers\u00e9e de la Fed<\/strong>. Elle a inject\u00e9 2 500 milliards de dollars de liquidit\u00e9s en \u00e9mettant des bons du Tr\u00e9sor. Son successeur, surnomm\u00e9 Buffalo Bill Bessent<\/strong> par Hayes, a poursuivi la strat\u00e9gie.<\/p>\n

Trump<\/strong> est revenu au pouvoir avec une mission claire. Il veut faire tourner l\u2019\u00e9conomie \u00e0 plein r\u00e9gime. Il pousse pour baisser les taux<\/a> malgr\u00e9 une inflation sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 2 %. Son plan vise \u00e0 r\u00e9duire le co\u00fbt du logement. L\u2019objectif : d\u00e9bloquer des milliers de milliards de capitaux propres. Bessent pr\u00e9voit \u00e9galement de d\u00e9r\u00e9glementer les banques pour stimuler le cr\u00e9dit.<\/p>\n

Du c\u00f4t\u00e9 chinois, Xi combat toujours la d\u00e9flation. Il reste d\u00e9termin\u00e9 \u00e0 baisser la valeur de l\u2019immobilier<\/strong>. Mais Hayes affirme que les d\u00e9cideurs politiques interviendront si la pression augmente. Ils n\u2019inonderont pas les march\u00e9s comme en 2009. Toutefois, ils ne bloqueront pas la croissance de liquidit\u00e9 mondiale.<\/p>\n

Les traders sous-estiment la liquidit\u00e9 \u00e0 venir<\/span><\/h2>\n

Nombreux sont ceux qui pensent que le march\u00e9 haussier est termin\u00e9. Hayes<\/a> rejette leur vision. Il cite les actions de la Fed et les signaux de la Banque populaire de Chine<\/strong>. La direction est claire : argent moins cher et offre plus importante.<\/p>\n

Le fondateur de BitMEX consid\u00e8re Bitcoin comme la meilleure forme de monnaie jamais cr\u00e9\u00e9e. Il est arriv\u00e9 au bon moment, affirme-t-il, comme un cadeau de Satoshi<\/strong>. \u00c0 l\u2019\u00e8re d\u2019Internet, les gouvernements centraux sont devenus plus forts gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la technologie. Bitcoin offre une d\u00e9fense contre la centralisation mon\u00e9taire.<\/p>\n

Hayes souligne que les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s trouvent toujours des moyens de se prot\u00e9ger. M\u00eame quand les gouvernements agissent comme des \u00ab\u00a0dictateurs mon\u00e9taires despotiques<\/strong>\u00ab\u00a0. Le Bitcoin repr\u00e9sente une protection dans le monde moderne.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Arthur Hayes, fondateur de BitMEX, affirme que la hausse actuelle du Bitcoin d\u00e9pend davantage des d\u00e9cisions mon\u00e9taires de Donald…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":224,"featured_media":11658,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11656","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nArthur Hayes : Trump et Xi poussent un peu trop Bitcoin<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Arthur Hayes affirme que Trump et Xi Jinping influencent Bitcoin plus que les halvings. 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