{"id":11283,"date":"2025-10-07T21:30:40","date_gmt":"2025-10-07T21:30:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=11283"},"modified":"2025-10-07T22:16:06","modified_gmt":"2025-10-07T22:16:06","slug":"bitcoin-148-000-pour-rattraper-lor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-148-000-pour-rattraper-lor\/","title":{"rendered":"Le Bitcoin doit grimper \u00e0 148 000 $ pour rattraper l\u2019or"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Selon Peter Schiff, le Bitcoin reste \u00e0 la tra\u00eene du m\u00e9tal jaune. Pour retrouver son pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent sommet contre l\u2019or, il devrait s\u2019\u00e9changer autour de 148 000 $. Le d\u00e9bat ressurgit alors que <strong>le bitcoin vient d\u2019inscrire un record en dollars et que l\u2019or tutoie les 4 000 $ l\u2019once<\/strong>. Cette comparaison, simple en apparence, \u00e9claire pourtant des dynamiques de march\u00e9 tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rentes.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"148_000__le_seuil_or_de_schiff\">148 000 $ : le seuil \u00ab or \u00bb de Schiff<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Pour \u00e9galer son pic relatif face \u00e0 l\u2019or, <strong>le Bitcoin devrait viser environ 148 000 $<\/strong>. C\u2019est l\u2019argument r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9 par Peter Schiff, qui souligne aussi que le bitcoin, en prix d\u2019or, reste \u00e0 pr\u00e8s de 15 % de son ancien sommet. Le message est autant un avertissement qu\u2019un rep\u00e8re technique.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">It's a moving target as gold keeps rising. But based on where gold is now, Bitcoin would have to rise to about $148K to match it's record high priced in gold.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PeterSchiff\/status\/1975349791862513979?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">October 6, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-franchit-les-125-000-tandis-que-bitcoin-hyper-senvole-vers-22-millions-de-dollars\/\" rel=\"\">Le Bitcoin a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 les 125 000 $<\/a>, avec un sommet intrajournalier autour de 126 000 $ d\u00e9but octobre. Sa capitalisation avoisine d\u00e9sormais 2,45 billions de dollars, un chiffre qui impressionne mais ne dit rien de sa position relative face au m\u00e9tal jaune.<\/p>\n<p>Or, ce \u00ab contre-champ \u00bb s\u2019est brutalement \u00e9clairci. <strong>L\u2019or a franchi pour la premi\u00e8re fois les 4 000 $ l\u2019once sur les futures am\u00e9ricains<\/strong>, un jalon historique port\u00e9 par la demande de refuge et des anticipations de baisse de taux. Autrement dit, l\u2019\u00e9chelle bouge des deux c\u00f4t\u00e9s du ratio BTC\/XAU, ce qui durcit le seuil \u00e0 rattraper pour le Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-11360 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/XAUBTC_2025-10-07_23-44-29.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin XAU\" width=\"1830\" height=\"611\" srcset=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/XAUBTC_2025-10-07_23-44-29.png 1830w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/XAUBTC_2025-10-07_23-44-29-300x100.png 300w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/XAUBTC_2025-10-07_23-44-29-1024x342.png 1024w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/XAUBTC_2025-10-07_23-44-29-768x256.png 768w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/XAUBTC_2025-10-07_23-44-29-1536x513.png 1536w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/XAUBTC_2025-10-07_23-44-29-1568x524.png 1568w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1830px) 100vw, 1830px\"><\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"bitcoin_vs_or_rendement_total_contre_rendement_ajuste_du_risque\">Bitcoin vs or : rendement total contre rendement ajust\u00e9 du risque<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Le c\u0153ur de la comparaison tient \u00e0 un d\u00e9tail que les graphiques oublient parfois. En rendement brut, <strong>le bitcoin domine sur deux ans,<\/strong> mais en rendement ajust\u00e9 du risque, l\u2019or garde l\u2019avantage. C\u2019est ce qu\u2019illustre <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ecoinometrics\/status\/1975245220767015385\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Ecoinometrics.<\/a> Deux actifs en t\u00eate, mais pas pour les m\u00eames raisons. L\u2019un paie davantage, l\u2019autre lisse mieux les turbulences.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin and gold remain the top performers.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin still leads in total returns, while gold leads in risk-adjusted returns.<\/p>\n<p>That pattern has held for two years, investors continue to favour hard assets. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xmNH7JWPIF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/xmNH7JWPIF<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 ecoinometrics (@ecoinometrics) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ecoinometrics\/status\/1975245220767015385?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">October 6, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Cette nuance explique pourquoi<strong> le ratio BTC\/or n\u2019est pas un simple ascenseur.<\/strong> La prime de risque r\u00e9mun\u00e8re des trajectoires volatiles. Lorsque la macro se crispe, l\u2019or capte m\u00e9caniquement une partie des flux, ce qui d\u00e9grade le d\u00e9nominateur du ratio en faveur du m\u00e9tal. Quand la liquidit\u00e9 s\u2019assouplit et que l\u2019app\u00e9tit revient,<strong> le num\u00e9rateur reprend la main.<\/strong> C\u2019est un balancier.<\/p>\n<p>On comprend alors la lecture de Schiff. Si l\u2019or grimpe vite et fort, la barre du \u00ab match nul \u00bb pour le bitcoin monte avec lui. Dire que 148 000 $ est \u00ab n\u00e9cessaire \u00bb, ce n\u2019est pas proph\u00e9tiser un prix, c\u2019est <strong>rappeler une arithm\u00e9tique relative<\/strong>. Et cette arithm\u00e9tique n\u2019est pas fig\u00e9e : elle d\u00e9pend du r\u00e9gime de volatilit\u00e9 des deux actifs et des flux qui les nourrissent.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"rattrapage_decorrelation_ou_faux_depart\">Rattrapage, d\u00e9corr\u00e9lation ou faux d\u00e9part ?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Si l\u2019or stabilise et que les flux vers les <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-nouvel-etf-blackrock\/\" rel=\"\">ETF crypto restent nourris,<\/a> <strong>le bitcoin peut s\u2019\u00e9tirer jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la zone \u00e9voqu\u00e9e par Schiff<\/strong>. Le march\u00e9 a d\u00e9j\u00e0 prouv\u00e9 qu\u2019il pouvait surprendre en phase d\u2019extension. Dans ce cas, 148 000 $ ne serait pas une proph\u00e9tie, mais une borne relative qu\u2019un march\u00e9 euphorique sait franchir.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-11349 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/BTCUSD_2025-10-07_22-45-22.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin cours \" width=\"983\" height=\"563\" srcset=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/BTCUSD_2025-10-07_22-45-22.png 983w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/BTCUSD_2025-10-07_22-45-22-300x172.png 300w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/10\/BTCUSD_2025-10-07_22-45-22-768x440.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 983px) 100vw, 983px\"><\/p>\n<p>Et si l\u2019or prolonge sa marche, le Bitcoin respire. Le ratio se d\u00e9grade, sans que cela n\u2019invalide la tendance de fond sur le BTC en dollars. Les investisseurs \u00e0 horizon long pr\u00e9f\u00e9reront alors lisser leurs entr\u00e9es, en assumant que l\u2019avantage \u00ab risque\/rendement \u00bb de l\u2019or reste momentan\u00e9 dans un cycle plus large.<\/p>\n<p>La cible de 148 000 $ n\u2019est pas un oracle, c\u2019est un rep\u00e8re mouvant dans un duel \u00e0 deux vitesses, o\u00f9 l\u2019or dicte le tempo du ratio et o\u00f9 le<strong> bitcoin teste les limites de l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Selon Peter Schiff, le Bitcoin reste \u00e0 la tra\u00eene du m\u00e9tal jaune. Pour retrouver son pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent sommet contre l\u2019or,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":241,"featured_media":11284,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[15,164],"class_list":["post-11283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-or","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin sous-performe l\u2019or : Schiff fixe la cible \u00e0 148 000 $<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Peter Schiff estime que le Bitcoin doit atteindre 148 000 $ pour \u00e9galer la hausse de l\u2019or, alors que le m\u00e9tal jaune d\u00e9passe 4 000 $ l\u2019once.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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