{"id":10982,"date":"2025-10-02T18:00:14","date_gmt":"2025-10-02T18:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=10982"},"modified":"2025-10-02T16:37:13","modified_gmt":"2025-10-02T16:37:13","slug":"bitcoin-grimper-231-000-citigroup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-grimper-231-000-citigroup\/","title":{"rendered":"Le Bitcoin peut-il vraiment grimper \u00e0 231 000 $ ? Citigroup y croit"},"content":{"rendered":"

En pleine reprise des flux vers les ETF Bitcoin et sur fond d\u2019app\u00e9tit institutionnel raviv\u00e9, Citigroup a actualis\u00e9 ses sc\u00e9narios et pointe vers une hausse jusqu\u2019\u00e0 231 000 $ sur 12 mois. <\/strong>Il s\u2019agit d\u2019un sc\u00e9nario central \u00e0 181 000 $, et un plancher vers 82 000 $. En parall\u00e8le, la banque ajuste ses objectifs de fin d\u2019ann\u00e9e et affine sa lecture d\u2019Ethereum.<\/p>\n

Un pari \u00e0 231 000 $<\/span><\/h2>\n

Les 231 000 $ ne sont pas une \u201ccible\u201d ferme mais le sc\u00e9nario le plus optimiste de Citi. La banque y voit une trajectoire possible si les flux vers le bitcoin s\u2019emballent et si l\u2019environnement macro reste porteur. Son sc\u00e9nario central, plus prudent, place le bitcoin \u00e0 181 000 $ sur 12 mois<\/strong>, quand le sc\u00e9nario baissier tomberait vers 82 000 $.<\/p>\n

Dans la m\u00eame note relay\u00e9e par plusieurs m\u00e9dias, Citi pr\u00e9cise aussi un jalon \u00e0 plus court terme. Environ 132 000 $ d\u2019ici fin 2025,<\/strong> soit un nouveau sommet historique mais en-de\u00e7\u00e0 du bull case. C\u2019est coh\u00e9rent avec d\u2019autres reprises de l\u2019analyse comme 133 000 $ de fin d\u2019ann\u00e9e, 181 000 $ sur 12 mois, l\u2019\u00e9cart venant de m\u00e9thodologies et horizons de projection distincts<\/strong>. La banque inscrit Bitcoin dans une fourchette large, pilot\u00e9e par les flux.<\/p>\n

\"bitcoin<\/p>\n

Pour Ethereum qui se rar\u00e9fie<\/a>, Citi affiche davantage d\u2019h\u00e9sitations. 4 500 $ d\u2019ici fin d\u2019ann\u00e9e, plus ou moins 5 400 $ sur 12 mois en centre de fourchette, avec un bull case \u00e0 7 300 $. La hi\u00e9rarchie implicite est claire. Bitcoin capte la part majeure des flux additionnels<\/strong> quand l\u2019activit\u00e9 utilisateurs d\u2019ETH demeure plus incertaine \u00e0 court terme.<\/p>\n

Le carburant des ETF Bitcoin et la m\u00e9canique des flux<\/span><\/h2>\n

Si Citi ose un bull case \u00e0 231 000 $, c\u2019est d\u2019abord parce qu\u2019un fait t\u00eatu s\u2019impose. Les ETF spot am\u00e9ricains r\u00e9attirent des capitaux<\/a>. Le 1\u1d49\u02b3 octobre (heure US), les produits adoss\u00e9s au bitcoin ont enregistr\u00e9 plus de 675 M$ d\u2019entr\u00e9es nettes en une journ\u00e9e, men\u00e9s par IBIT de BlackRock. Une s\u00e9quence de trois jours de collecte qui a co\u00efncid\u00e9 avec un rebond du prix.<\/p>\n

\"Sosovalue<\/p>\n

D\u2019un c\u00f4t\u00e9, les allocations discr\u00e9tionnaires des g\u00e9rants reviennent<\/strong> \u00e0 mesure que la classe d\u2019actifs s\u2019institutionnalise via un v\u00e9hicule familier. De l\u2019autre, la liquidit\u00e9 secondaire des ETF cr\u00e9e un pont simple entre poches \u201ctraditionnelles\u201d et Bitcoin on-chain. C\u2019est exactement le type de catalyseur que Citi met au centre de sa mod\u00e9lisation<\/a> des sc\u00e9narios.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Le BTC s\u2019\u00e9change de nouveau autour de 119 000 $, au plus haut de plusieurs semaines<\/strong>, alors que la dynamique de \u201cUptober\u201d s\u2019installe. La cause n\u2019est pas que crypto-native. Un contexte de taux plus doux<\/a> et des donn\u00e9es macro moins tendues nourrissent l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque.<\/p>\n

Macro, micro et un rappel de prudence<\/span><\/h2>\n

Citi ne peint pas le tableau en monochrome. La m\u00eame recherche abaisse l\u00e9g\u00e8rement l\u2019objectif fin d\u2019ann\u00e9e pour Bitcoin, de 135 000 $ \u00e0 133 000 $, tout en rehaussant celui d\u2019Ether \u00e0 4 500 $. La raison ? un dollar plus ferme et un or plus mou viennent contrebalancer, \u00e0 court terme, la vigueur des flux. En effet, m\u00eame dans un cycle haussier, la macro reste le m\u00e9tronome.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sur le terrain micro, la banque souligne que l\u2019activit\u00e9 utilisateurs et les m\u00e9triques on-chain n\u2019\u00e9voluent pas toutes au m\u00eame rythme. C\u2019est l\u2019un des n\u0153uds de son scepticisme relatif sur ETH \u00e0 court terme. Rendement de staking ou pas, l\u2019\u00e9lasticit\u00e9 de la demande n\u2019est pas garantie. Pour bitcoin, en revanche, la narration \u201cor num\u00e9rique\u201d continue d\u2019aimanter les flux.<\/p>\n

Que le bull case pointe 231 000 $ ne signifie pas que cette courbe sera lin\u00e9aire. L\u2019historique du bitcoin rappelle que les phases d\u2019expansion sont ponctu\u00e9es de corrections violentes<\/strong>, souvent d\u00e9clench\u00e9es par des chocs exog\u00e8nes ou un simple ass\u00e8chement de la demande marginale. D\u2019o\u00f9 l\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, pour un investisseur, de raisonner en sc\u00e9narios plut\u00f4t qu\u2019en chiffres f\u00e9tiches.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

En pleine reprise des flux vers les ETF Bitcoin et sur fond d\u2019app\u00e9tit institutionnel raviv\u00e9, Citigroup a actualis\u00e9 ses…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":241,"featured_media":10989,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[15,111],"class_list":["post-10982","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-hausse","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin \u00e0 231 000 $ ? 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