{"id":10382,"date":"2025-09-28T12:05:43","date_gmt":"2025-09-28T12:05:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=10382"},"modified":"2025-09-26T12:40:10","modified_gmt":"2025-09-26T12:40:10","slug":"fin-cycle-crypto-2025-ou-bull-run-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/fin-cycle-crypto-2025-ou-bull-run-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Fin du cycle crypto en 2025 ou d\u00e9but du bull run en 2026 ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Le march\u00e9 h\u00e9site. Certains observateurs \u00e9voquent une <strong>fin de cycle<\/strong> d\u00e8s 2025. D\u2019autres, au contraire, envisagent un <strong>pr\u00e9-march\u00e9 haussier<\/strong> qui s\u2019affirmerait en 2026. Entre deux th\u00e8ses, la discipline s\u2019impose. Car, au-del\u00e0 des opinions, plusieurs indicateurs objectifs permettent d\u2019\u00e9valuer le r\u00e9gime du march\u00e9 et d\u2019ajuster sa lecture.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"ou_en_est_le_cycle_halving_liquidite_et_structure_de_marche\">O\u00f9 en est le cycle ? Halving, liquidit\u00e9 et structure de march\u00e9<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Historiquement, <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/theorie-cycle-fractal-bitcoin-face-destin-octobre\/\" rel=\"\">les cycles crypto<\/a> s\u2019articulent autour du <strong>halving<\/strong> de <a href=\"https:\/\/coinmarketcap.com\/currencies\/bitcoin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Bitcoin<\/a> et des <strong>vagues de liquidit\u00e9<\/strong>. Apr\u00e8s chaque r\u00e9duction de l\u2019\u00e9mission, le march\u00e9 conna\u00eet souvent une phase d\u2019optimisme, parfois suivie d\u2019un essoufflement. Toutefois, la dur\u00e9e et l\u2019amplitude varient. Ainsi, le simple copier-coller des cycles pass\u00e9s ne fonctionne plus. La pr\u00e9sence d\u2019acteurs institutionnels, les produits indiciels et les contraintes r\u00e9glementaires modifient la dynamique.<\/p>\n<p>En parall\u00e8le, la <strong>liquidit\u00e9 globale<\/strong> joue un r\u00f4le majeur. Lorsque les conditions financi\u00e8res se d\u00e9tendent, les actifs risqu\u00e9s respirent. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, un resserrement prolong\u00e9 p\u00e8se sur l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque. D\u00e8s lors, il faut observer les courbes de taux, les attentes de politique mon\u00e9taire et les flux vers les produits expos\u00e9s au Bitcoin ou \u00e0 l\u2019Ether. Ces \u00e9l\u00e9ments orientent le r\u00e9gime de tendance, sans garantir le timing exact.<\/p>\n<p>Enfin, la structure du march\u00e9 a chang\u00e9. <strong>Les ETF et les<\/strong> <strong>comptes professionnels<\/strong> apportent une demande plus stable, mais ils cr\u00e9ent aussi de nouvelles sources de <strong>volatilit\u00e9 \u00e9v\u00e9nementielle<\/strong>. Les publications de donn\u00e9es macro, les d\u00e9cisions de banques centrales et les nouvelles r\u00e9glementaires d\u00e9clenchent des rotations rapides. Par cons\u00e9quent, l\u2019analyse doit int\u00e9grer ce calendrier.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin weekly Bollinger Bands are officially the tightest in the entire history of BTCUSD price action <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/XWNYkquVXP\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/XWNYkquVXP<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Tony \"The Bull\" Severino, CMT (@TonyTheBullCMT) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TonyTheBullCMT\/status\/1970503149090906476?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">September 23, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"les_signaux_qui_plaident_pour_une_fin_de_cycle_en_2025\">Les signaux qui plaident pour une fin de cycle en 2025<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Un premier sc\u00e9nario estime que 2025 marque la <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-chute-cap-sur-104-000\/\" rel=\"\"><strong>phase de distribution<\/strong><\/a>. Plusieurs indices pourraient y conduire. D\u2019abord, la <strong>fatigue acheteuse<\/strong> apr\u00e8s une s\u00e9quence haussi\u00e8re d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9tendue. Ensuite, des <strong>divergences<\/strong> entre prix et activit\u00e9 on-chain sur certains segments. Enfin, la <strong>rotation<\/strong> vers les grandes capitalisations au d\u00e9triment des projets plus risqu\u00e9s signale parfois une prudence croissante.<\/p>\n<p>De plus, la macro\u00e9conomie peut surprendre. Une inflation persistante, des taux durablement \u00e9lev\u00e9s ou une croissance en berne p\u00e8seraient sur les actifs risqu\u00e9s. Dans ce cadre, la volatilit\u00e9 augmenterait autour de celles-ci, et la corr\u00e9lation avec les indices actions remonterait. Ainsi, le march\u00e9 solderait progressivement les exc\u00e8s, avant d\u2019entrer dans une phase lat\u00e9rale plus longue.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin: There has been a clear downtrend in volatility since inception. <\/p>\n<p>For the decay function (AKA diminishing returns of the peaks) to change, we would need to see a reversal in this volatility downtrend pattern. <\/p>\n<p>To date, there are no signs of such a reversal. <\/p>\n<p>Therefore,\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/OJUONLUeNl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/t.co\/OJUONLUeNl<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 PlanC (@TheRealPlanC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TheRealPlanC\/status\/1971018917658214464?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">September 25, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"les_arguments_dun_pre-bull_run_qui_sinstalle_pour_2026\">Les arguments d\u2019un pr\u00e9-bull run qui s\u2019installe pour 2026<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Le second sc\u00e9nario mise sur une <strong>consolidation constructive<\/strong> en 2025, suivie d\u2019un <strong>red\u00e9marrage<\/strong> en 2026. Plusieurs catalyseurs existent. D\u2019une part, la maturation des produits (ETF, solutions de garde, int\u00e9grations bancaires) continue. D\u2019autre part, la tokenisation et les stablecoins progressent dans l\u2019\u00e9conomie r\u00e9elle. Ces usages cr\u00e9ent des flux r\u00e9currents moins sp\u00e9culatifs, donc plus r\u00e9silients.<\/p>\n<p>Par ailleurs, la <strong>courbe d\u2019apprentissage<\/strong> des nouveaux entrants s\u2019am\u00e9liore. Les entreprises affinent leurs processus. Les r\u00e9gulateurs clarifient les r\u00e8gles. Les acteurs de march\u00e9 professionnalisent la gestion du risque. Ensemble, ces facteurs r\u00e9duisent les phases d\u2019euphorie incontr\u00f4l\u00e9e et limitent, parfois, l\u2019ampleur des corrections. D\u00e8s lors, une base solide se construit. Puis, un basculement de r\u00e9gime peut survenir lorsque la liquidit\u00e9 se d\u00e9tend \u00e0 nouveau et que les innovations trouvent leur public. En ce sens, une politique mon\u00e9taire accommodante de la Fed au cours des prochains mois pourrait soutenir l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019un bull run en 2026.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">In Bitcoin, it always pays to zoom-out.<\/p>\n<p>The 365-day SMA reveals very well-defined, curvilinear bubbles or waves.<\/p>\n<p>Compared to the power law regression line, the SMA has only just begun to push slightly above 1 (1 = trendline) since mid-year this year. All historical bubbles have\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/IcA43b7xpN\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/IcA43b7xpN<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Sminston With (@sminston_with) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/sminston_with\/status\/1970875166680130000?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">September 24, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"comment_trancher_entre_les_deux_theses\">Comment trancher entre les deux th\u00e8ses ?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Plut\u00f4t que de choisir un camp, mieux vaut surveiller <strong>quatre familles d\u2019indicateurs<\/strong> :<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Flux<\/strong> : entr\u00e9es et sorties nettes sur les v\u00e9hicules d\u2019investissement, volumes au comptant et sur d\u00e9riv\u00e9s, part de march\u00e9 des stablecoins.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Liquidit\u00e9<\/strong> : conditions financi\u00e8res, attentes de taux, spreads de cr\u00e9dit, \u00e9volution du dollar.<\/li>\n<li><strong>R\u00e9seau<\/strong> : activit\u00e9 on-chain pertinente (utilisateurs, frais, s\u00e9curisation), part des revenus \u201chors sp\u00e9culation\u201d pour les protocols utiles.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Technique<\/strong> : tendance de fond sur les horizons hebdo\/mensuel, respiration saine ou cassures majeures, structure des <strong>financements perp\u00e9tuels<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Lorsque la majorit\u00e9 bascule simultan\u00e9ment, le signal gagne en fiabilit\u00e9. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, des signaux contradictoires appellent \u00e0 la patience. Dans tous les cas, il faut <strong>\u00e9viter les certitudes<\/strong>. Car un changement rapide de politiques publiques ou un choc macro peut inverser la tendance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le march\u00e9 h\u00e9site. Certains observateurs \u00e9voquent une fin de cycle d\u00e8s 2025. D\u2019autres, au contraire, envisagent un pr\u00e9-march\u00e9 haussier&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":245,"featured_media":10383,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10382","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Fin du cycle crypto en 2025 ou d\u00e9but du bull run en 2026 ?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Fin de cycle en 2025 ou nouveau bull run en 2026 ? 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Curieux et tourn\u00e9 vers l\u2019avenir, il suit de pr\u00e8s les r\u00e9volutions li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019intelligence artificielle et au Web3. Voyageur dans l\u2019\u00e2me, il aime d\u00e9couvrir les cultures du monde et apprendre au contact des gens. Il partage ici une vision accessible et \u00e9clair\u00e9e de l\u2019\u00e9cosyst\u00e8me crypto.\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/author\/nicola\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Fin du cycle crypto en 2025 ou d\u00e9but du bull run en 2026 ?","description":"Fin de cycle en 2025 ou nouveau bull run en 2026 ? 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