{"id":10358,"date":"2025-09-26T12:00:34","date_gmt":"2025-09-26T12:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/?p=10358"},"modified":"2025-09-26T11:49:52","modified_gmt":"2025-09-26T11:49:52","slug":"bitcoin-chute-cap-sur-104-000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/bitcoin-chute-cap-sur-104-000\/","title":{"rendered":"Ce n\u2019est pas fini : le Bitcoin pourrait chuter lourdement"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Le bitcoin recule sous pression macro, et une piste se dessine. Un dernier creux autour de 104 000 $ avant un nouveau souffle ? L\u2019id\u00e9e ne vient pas de nulle part, elle s\u2019appuie sur un sc\u00e9nario d\u00e9j\u00e0 observ\u00e9 lors d\u2019un cycle de baisse des taux.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"104_000_comme_cible_puis_impulsion_haussiere_pour_bitcoin\">104 000 $ comme cible puis impulsion haussi\u00e8re pour bitcoin ?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>L\u2019analyste <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TedPillows\/status\/1970810695395451289\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Ted Pillows<\/a> anticipe <strong>un repli de bitcoin vers la zone 99 000 et 104 000 $<\/strong>, suivi d\u2019un mouvement de reprise pouvant viser la r\u00e9gion des 160 000 $. Il relie cette perspective \u00e0 un mod\u00e8le post-baisse de taux et \u00e0 des signaux techniques de faiblesse \u00e0 court terme.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">$BTC<\/a> dumped nearly 12% after the Fed cut rates in 2024.<\/p>\n<p>A similar dump will put BTC around the $104,000 level, which I think could happen.<\/p>\n<p>The reason is Gold is still running, and institutional flow for Bitcoin has gone down a lot.<\/p>\n<p>Big players usually like to buy fear, and\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/GAOLqtJyDK\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/GAOLqtJyDK<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Ted (@TedPillows) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TedPillows\/status\/1970810695395451289?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">September 24, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Apr\u00e8s <a href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/news\/baisse-des-taux-de-la-fed-snorter-bot-token-montre-la-voie\/\" rel=\"\">une baisse de taux<\/a>, <strong>une jambe baissi\u00e8re avait pr\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9 une envol\u00e9e d\u2019environ 58 %<\/strong> l\u2019an dernier. La configuration actuelle, dit-il, pr\u00e9sente des similarit\u00e9s, avec une structure fragile \u00e0 court terme mais un fond de tendance restant haussier \u00e0 l\u2019horizon de plusieurs mois.<\/p>\n<p>Il souligne aussi une zone de liquidit\u00e9 autour de 108 000 $. Si cette poche est balay\u00e9e, le march\u00e9 pourrait pousser jusqu\u2019\u00e0 104 000 $ avant d\u2019aspirer la contre-liquidit\u00e9 \u00e0 la hausse. Autrement dit, <strong>un nettoyage des stops pourrait pr\u00e9c\u00e9der l\u2019impulsion suivante.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"le_facteur_fed_un_assouplissement_qui_secoue_les_prix\">Le facteur Fed : un assouplissement qui secoue les prix<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Le 17 septembre 2025, la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale a r\u00e9duit son taux directeur de 25 points de base. Le corridor cible est pass\u00e9 \u00e0 4,00 %-4,25 %, premi\u00e8re d\u00e9tente depuis d\u00e9cembre 2024. Historiquement, <strong>ce type de pivot ravive la volatilit\u00e9 inter-actifs<\/strong>, crypto inclus. Le signal mon\u00e9taire est donc coh\u00e9rent avec l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019un creux technique puis une relance d\u00e9fendue par Pillows.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c0 tr\u00e8s court terme, la r\u00e9action n\u2019a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 euphorique. <strong>Le bitcoin s\u2019est repli\u00e9 vers 109 000 $-110 000 $, confirmant la nervosit\u00e9 ambiante<\/strong>. Ce tassement se lit dans la microstructure de march\u00e9 et rappelle que les baisses de taux ne produisent pas toujours un effet imm\u00e9diat sur les actifs risqu\u00e9s.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-10360 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BITCOIN_2025-09-26_11-45-07.png\" alt=\"Crypto-bitcoin\" width=\"1435\" height=\"808\" srcset=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BITCOIN_2025-09-26_11-45-07.png 1435w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BITCOIN_2025-09-26_11-45-07-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BITCOIN_2025-09-26_11-45-07-1024x577.png 1024w, https:\/\/icobench.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2025\/09\/BITCOIN_2025-09-26_11-45-07-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1435px) 100vw, 1435px\"><\/p>\n<p>Par ailleurs, certains acteurs de premier plan estiment que d\u2019autres coupes sont probables d\u2019ici la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, ce qui entretient un narratif de liquidit\u00e9 future favorable au risque, mais pas sans \u00e0-coups. L\u2019anticipation d\u2019un cycle d\u2019assouplissement graduel peut ainsi cohabiter avec des corrections interm\u00e9diaires.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"technique_de_court_terme_sur_le_bitcoin\">Technique de court terme sur le bitcoin<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Les donn\u00e9es de prix du bitcoin montrent un march\u00e9 fragile autour de 108 000\u2013111 000 $. Ce couloir sert de zone de d\u00e9cision. Si la pression vendeuse s\u2019accentue, <strong>la glissade vers 104 000 $ devient plausible<\/strong>, ce qui correspond \u00e0 une baisse d\u2019environ 11 % \u00e9voqu\u00e9e par l\u2019analyste. L\u00e0 encore, l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se n\u2019est pas la fin du cycle, mais un point d\u2019inflexion potentiel.<\/p>\n<p data-pm-slice=\"0 0 []\">Si le prix du bitcoin descend clairement sous 108 000 $, cela pourrait provoquer <strong>une vague de ventes rapides et massives<\/strong>, avec beaucoup de liquidit\u00e9 qui dispara\u00eet d\u2019un coup. Plusieurs lectures chartistes d\u00e9crivent un canal descendant actif en journalier.<\/p>\n<p data-pm-slice=\"0 0 []\">Tant que les prix n\u2019en sortent pas par le haut, l\u2019avantage reste aux vendeurs. Mais une m\u00e8che basse rapide, suivie d\u2019une reprise au-dessus du canal, cadrerait bien avec un washout final avant rebond.<\/p>\n<p>Toutefois, <strong>une r\u00e9int\u00e9gration solide au-dessus de 112 000-114 000 $ retarderait le sc\u00e9nario du creux profond.<\/strong> Il faut aussi surveiller les flux d\u2019ETF spot, parfois positifs malgr\u00e9 la baisse du bitcoin, signe que l\u2019app\u00e9tit structurel existe encore m\u00eame dans les phases de stress. Cela peut amortir la descente ou acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer la reprise lorsque la pression vendeuse se tarit.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le bitcoin recule sous pression macro, et une piste se dessine. Un dernier creux autour de 104 000 $&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":241,"featured_media":10359,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[15,92],"class_list":["post-10358","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-chute","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin : la chute n\u2019est pas termin\u00e9e, cap sur 104 000 $ ?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin recule sous pression et pourrait plonger vers 104 000 $ avant un fort rebond. 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