{"id":7048,"date":"2026-02-11T09:00:44","date_gmt":"2026-02-11T09:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/cz\/?p=7048"},"modified":"2026-02-10T09:16:57","modified_gmt":"2026-02-10T09:16:57","slug":"rekordni-strach-na-trhu-bitcoin-zpatky-nad-71-000-usd-ale-nalada-vypada-jako-v-roce-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icobench.com\/cz\/novinky\/rekordni-strach-na-trhu-bitcoin-zpatky-nad-71-000-usd-ale-nalada-vypada-jako-v-roce-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"Rekordn\u00ed strach na trhu: Bitcoin zp\u00e1tky nad 71 000 USD, ale n\u00e1lada vypad\u00e1 jako v roce 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin<\/a> se v pond\u011bl\u00ed vy\u0161kr\u00e1bal zp\u011bt nad 71 000 USD<\/strong>, jen\u017ee trh se tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, jako by pr\u00e1v\u011b p\u0159i\u0161el o posledn\u00ed zbytky optimismu. Sentiment nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d kryptom\u011bnami<\/a> toti\u017e spadl na historick\u00e9 dno a paradox je a\u017e nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00fd: cena se odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed, ale psychologie trhu p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 obdob\u00ed, kdy se b\u011b\u017en\u011b mluvilo sp\u00ed\u0161 o kapitulaci<\/strong> ne\u017e o r\u016fstu.<\/p>\n

Fear and Greed na dn\u011b, RSI v extr\u00e9mu<\/span><\/h2>\n

Index Crypto Fear and Greed klesl na rekordn\u011b n\u00edzkou hodnotu 7 bod\u016f<\/strong> a o v\u00edkendu se podle n\u011bkter\u00fdch koment\u00e1\u0159\u016f kr\u00e1tce objevil dokonce na 5<\/strong>. Sou\u010dasn\u011b denn\u00ed RSI u BTC spadl na 15<\/strong>, co\u017e je hluboce p\u0159eprodan\u00e9 p\u00e1smo. Takov\u00e9 kombinace se podle historick\u00fdch p\u0159irovn\u00e1n\u00ed objevovaly v medv\u011bd\u00edm trhu 2018<\/strong> a b\u011bhem covidov\u00e9ho propadu v b\u0159eznu 2020<\/strong>. Z tohoto pohledu vznik\u00e1 kontra sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159: extr\u00e9mn\u00ed strach n\u011bkdy funguje jako palivo pro odraz, proto\u017ee na trhu u\u017e nen\u00ed moc koho \u201evyd\u011bsit\u201c k prodeji.<\/p>\n

\"denn\u00ed
Denn\u00ed RSI u BTC spadl na 15, co\u017e je hluboce p\u0159eprodan\u00e9 p\u00e1smo<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Pro\u010d \u010d\u00e1st trhu v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee 60 000 USD bylo dno<\/span><\/h2>\n

Kontrari\u00e1nsk\u00fd argument stoj\u00ed na jednoduch\u00e9 logice. Pokud je sentiment takto rozbit\u00fd, m\u016f\u017ee se z \u00farovn\u011b kolem 60 000 USD<\/strong> st\u00e1t op\u011brn\u00fd bod, proto\u017ee trh u\u017e jednou uk\u00e1zal, \u017ee zde kupci dok\u00e1zali cenu udr\u017eet. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed pozorovatel\u00e9 nav\u00edc poukazuj\u00ed na nerovnov\u00e1hu v likvidac\u00edch, kter\u00e1 nahr\u00e1v\u00e1 sp\u00ed\u0161 pohybu vzh\u016fru ne\u017e dal\u0161\u00edmu p\u00e1du.<\/p>\n

Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b se zmi\u0148uje, \u017ee v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b r\u016fstu zhruba o 10 000 USD<\/strong> v\u00fd\u0161e le\u017e\u00ed nad trhem p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 5,45 miliardy USD<\/strong> v potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch likvidac\u00edch short pozic. Naopak p\u0159i n\u00e1vratu k 60 000 USD<\/strong> je na map\u011b likvidac\u00ed zhruba 2,4 miliardy USD<\/strong>. Takov\u00fd rozd\u00edl m\u016f\u017ee vytv\u00e1\u0159et prost\u0159ed\u00ed, kdy r\u016fst spust\u00ed vynucen\u00e9 zav\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed short\u016f a t\u00edm dal\u0161\u00ed tlak na r\u016fst.<\/p>\n

Jen\u017ee struktura trhu je slab\u00e1 a deriv\u00e1ty tla\u010d\u00ed dol\u016f<\/span><\/h2>\n

Vedle optimismu z extr\u00e9mn\u00edho strachu stoj\u00ed tvrd\u0161\u00ed \u010dten\u00ed dat: Bitcoin se podle sledovan\u00fdch metrik obchoduje pod pades\u00e1tidenn\u00edm klouzav\u00fdm pr\u016fm\u011brem kolem 87 000 USD<\/strong> a je\u0161t\u011b n\u00ed\u017e v\u016f\u010di dvousetdenn\u00edmu pr\u016fm\u011bru pobl\u00ed\u017e 102 000 USD<\/strong>. Tak \u0161irok\u00fd rozestup se popisuje jako korek\u010dn\u00ed, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b p\u0159ece\u0148ovac\u00ed f\u00e1ze po p\u0159edchoz\u00ed rally, nikoli jako stabiln\u00ed n\u00e1vrat do r\u016fstov\u00e9ho trendu.<\/p>\n

\"S\u00edla
S\u00edla trendu Bitcoinu a struktura trhu. Zdroj: CryptoQuant<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Do toho zapad\u00e1 i statistick\u00fd Price Z Score, kter\u00fd je na hodnot\u011b minus 1,6<\/strong>. To zna\u010d\u00ed obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed pod statistick\u00fdm pr\u016fm\u011brem a z\u00e1rove\u0148 \u00fanavu trendu. V podobn\u00fdch situac\u00edch se v minulosti \u010dast\u011bji stav\u011bly del\u0161\u00ed cenov\u00e9 z\u00e1klady, ne\u017e aby p\u0159i\u0161el okam\u017eit\u00fd a \u010dist\u00fd obrat vzh\u016fru.<\/p>\n

Sign\u00e1l z deriv\u00e1t\u016f: prod\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed maj\u00ed navrch<\/span><\/h2>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed varovn\u00fd prvek p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed z deriv\u00e1tov\u00fdch trh\u016f. M\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed net taker volume se v ned\u011bli prudce propadl na minus 272 milion\u016f USD<\/strong> a pom\u011br taker buy sell na Binance<\/a> sklouzl pod 1<\/strong>, co\u017e se interpretuje jako dominance prodejn\u00edho tlaku. Jinak \u0159e\u010deno, agresivn\u00ed objedn\u00e1vky jsou v\u00edce na stran\u011b prodeje ne\u017e n\u00e1kupu. Pokud v takov\u00e9m prost\u0159ed\u00ed futures objemy p\u0159evy\u0161uj\u00ed spotov\u00e9 toky, trh pot\u0159ebuje v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed spot popt\u00e1vku, aby se odraz zm\u011bnil v n\u011bco udr\u017eiteln\u011bj\u0161\u00edho.<\/p>\n

\"Likvidace
Likvidace bitcoinov\u00fdch pozic na krypto burz\u00e1ch. Zdroj: CoinGlass<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Hranice, kter\u00e9 mohou rozhodnout: 57 000 a pak a\u017e 42 000<\/span><\/h2>\n

Do hry vstupuje i dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00ed technick\u00e1 \u00favaha. V p\u0159edchoz\u00edch medv\u011bd\u00edch cyklech se dna \u010dasto formovala pod \u00farovn\u00ed 0,618 Fibonacciho retracementu<\/strong>. Pro aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed cyklus vych\u00e1z\u00ed tato hladina p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b na 57 000 USD<\/strong>. Pokud by se historie opakovala d\u016fsledn\u011bji, p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u00ed se i hlub\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 sm\u011brem k 42 000 USD<\/strong>. To je p\u0159esn\u011b ten typ \u010d\u00edsel, kter\u00fd um\u00ed \u0161okovat, proto\u017ee je v p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9m konfliktu s p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhem, \u017ee 60 000 u\u017e bylo definitivn\u00ed dno.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed cenov\u00e1 dna a\u017e po dos\u00e1hnut\u00ed 61,8 % retracementu<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br: extr\u00e9mn\u00ed strach m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt \u0161anc\u00ed, ale trh je\u0161t\u011b nen\u00ed \u201ezdrav\u00fd\u201c<\/span><\/h2>\n

Bitcoin se sice vr\u00e1til nad 71 000 USD<\/strong>, jen\u017ee rekordn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00fd sentiment a extr\u00e9mn\u00ed p\u0159eprodanost nevypov\u00eddaj\u00ed jen o p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti, ale i o m\u00ed\u0159e po\u0161kozen\u00ed trhu. Naho\u0159e le\u017e\u00ed velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed short likvidac\u00ed, kter\u00e9 mohou spustit rychl\u00fd r\u016fst, z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u0161ak deriv\u00e1tov\u00e9 ukazatele ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee prodejn\u00ed tlak nepovolil a bez siln\u00e9ho spotov\u00e9ho n\u00e1kupu m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt ka\u017ed\u00fd odraz jen p\u0159est\u00e1vkou. A pokud by se trh rozhodl \u0159\u00eddit star\u00fdmi medv\u011bd\u00edmi sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i, z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed ve h\u0159e i hladiny kolem 57 000 USD<\/strong> a v krajn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b 42 000 USD<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin se v pond\u011bl\u00ed vy\u0161kr\u00e1bal zp\u011bt nad 71 000 USD, jen\u017ee trh se tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, jako by pr\u00e1v\u011b p\u0159i\u0161el o…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":187,"featured_media":6814,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[46,148,170,174,22],"class_list":["post-7048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-novinky","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-analyza","tag-bitcoin-cena","tag-bitcoin-dominance","tag-btc","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRekordn\u00ed strach na trhu: Bitcoin zp\u00e1tky nad 71 000 USD, ale n\u00e1lada vypad\u00e1 jako v roce 2018 - Czech<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/icobench.com\/cz\/novinky\/rekordni-strach-na-trhu-bitcoin-zpatky-nad-71-000-usd-ale-nalada-vypada-jako-v-roce-2018\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rekordn\u00ed strach na trhu: Bitcoin zp\u00e1tky nad 71 000 USD, ale n\u00e1lada vypad\u00e1 jako v roce 2018 - 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